Ted Chmyz | Mon, Aug 5th 2024, 7:08am EDT

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, PPR, Late Pick (2024)

Now that the calendar has turned the page to August, it is officially fantasy football draft season. There’s no better way to celebrate than with a fantasy football mock draft. Specifically, the best way to do a mock draft is using the FantasyPros Draft Wizard.

The free Draft Wizard allows you to build a custom fantasy football mock draft with the same scoring, roster size and number of teams as your league. Even better, you get to draft instantly against a computer algorithm using a mix of ADP and FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings – no more mock drafts where everyone leaves after the first few rounds!

For today’s fantasy football mock draft, I’m drafting from the 11th spot in a 12-team PPR league. The roster settings for this mock are 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DST, and 1 K. I will break down my picks round by round below, but you can check out the full mock here.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft (11th Pick)

1.11: A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)

Picking at the end of a 12-team draft this year is an interesting place to be. You’re almost guaranteed not to get one of the big three first-round running backs (Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall). And in a full-PPR, three-receiver league, picking a running back from the next tier over an elite wide receiver feels bad. It’s tempting to double-tap wide receivers on this turn, but doing that will leave you with a player like Rachaad White as your RB1, which is not a place I like to be. With that in mind, my strategy with these picks near the end of the first round is to grab my favorite receiver on the board first, then pick whichever running back falls to me in the second round. In this case, A.J. Brown was easily my favorite receiver available, so this was an easy choice. Brown has been a top-six receiver in PPR in both seasons in Philadelphia, so I’m more than happy to grab him as the seventh receiver off the board.

2.02: Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

In my eyes, there’s a fairly large second tier of running backs going off the board around the 1-2 turn, with Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams all having very valid arguments to be the RB4. In this case, Saquon and Gibbs were off the board, so I snagged Taylor. There are question marks as to whether Taylor will have elite receiving usage or goal-line equity playing next to Anthony Richardson, but I have no doubts about his talent or, more importantly, volume. Even in an injury-riddled season, Taylor had multiple games above an 80% rush share in 2023, which should happen even more often in 2024 with Trey Sermon as his biggest competition. I’m very happy to have a stud at both of the most important positions with him and Brown – this is the benefit of a late first-round pick.

3.11: Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

I love Nico Collins and I don’t care who knows it. After a slow start to his career, Collins put up some truly mindboggling stats in his third season; his first season with an NFL-caliber quarterback. Most notably, his 3.11 yards per route run was the second-highest in the league behind only Tyreek Hill. For context as to how remarkable that number is, Justin Jefferson was third at 2.97 last season and Cooper Kupp posted a 3.12 mark in his record-breaking 2021 triple-crown season. Yes, Stefon Diggs is going to demand targets in what is suddenly a crowded offense. But Collins is an ascending young superstar tied to an ascending young superstar QB in C.J. Stroud; that’s a player I’m happy to bet on in the back of the third round.

4.02: Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)

I’m not going to lie, I regretted this pick. It felt good at the time – drafting an elite quarterback is a good strategy this year, and stacking Hurts with A.J. Brown is a plus. But later in the draft, when Kyler Murray was staring me in the face in the eighth round and then Jayden Daniels was still available in the 12th, I found myself wishing I had held off on selecting a quarterback. My regrets have nothing to do with Hurts, who is the 1B to Josh Allen‘s 1A in terms of fantasy quarterbacks for this season. But given how the board shook out, I think I would rather have waited to select my QB1. If I had waited, I would have grabbed Mark Andrews instead, locking in an elite tight end instead of an elite quarterback.

5.11: David Montgomery (RB – DET)

I drafted David Montgomery as the RB22 off the board, which seems more than fair for a guy who averaged top-10 numbers in his healthy games last season. Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs is younger and more exciting, and his role will likely be bigger this year than it was in 2023. But Montgomery was incredibly efficient in his own right last year, ranking seventh among qualified RBs with a 44.3% success rate according to SumerSports; Gibbs was at 37.4%, for what it’s worth. Montgomery also has immense touchdown upside, not to mention a top-five running back ceiling if Gibbs were to miss time. That combination of ceiling and floor makes me very happy to land him as my RB2.

6.02: Amari Cooper (WR – CLE)

Speaking of ceiling and floor, Amari Cooper brings both. He saw at least five targets in every game in 2023, serving as the undisputed top target in Cleveland’s offense. Cooper also had the second-largest single-game fantasy output of the season, with an absurd 51.5-point explosion that likely won plenty of fantasy semifinal matchups in Week 16. I was also tempted by Diontae Johnson, who is one of my favorite players to draft this year, but the value of Cooper nearly a full round after his ADP was too much to pass up.

7.11: Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)

Jaylen Warren is similar to Montgomery, with whom he will probably compete for the RB2 spot on this roster. Heading into the season, both players seem to have capped ceilings as they will be splitting touches with another talented running back; Najee Harris is no Jahmyr Gibbs, but he’s going to command volume. We all know how often running backs miss time, and both Warren and Montgomery would immediately be in the RB1 conversation if their running mates were sidelined. As a bonus, Warren was one of the league’s most efficient running backs last year, both as a rusher and a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Among qualified RBs, he finished third in NextGenStats’ rush yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt and 10th in PFF Receiving Grade. There’s always a chance that the Steelers’ new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith sees this and feeds Warren over Harris, making him a steal at this spot.

8.02: Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)

I was hoping to pick a tight end in the seventh round, but George Kittle, Evan Engram and David Njoku all flew off the board within six picks. After that happened, I pivoted to Warren, but I still felt obligated to reach for Ferguson a few picks later. While I would have rather picked any of the tight ends that went before him, Ferguson is the final tight end I feel comfortable slotting into my TE1 spot. I’m not in love with him as a player, but his usage, especially in the red zone, is great: He ranked seventh among tight ends with 96 targets last year and fourth among all players with 24 red zone targets.

9.11: Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

Sutton joins Cooper as a slightly boring veteran wide receiver who should lock down a flex spot for this roster all year. His quarterback situation isn’t great, and he’s not a threat to suddenly emerge as a WR1 or even a high-end WR2. But he’s essentially guaranteed to be the top target on the Broncos’ offense and I’ll take that at the end of the ninth round.

10.02: Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)

I view Charbonnet as a dollar-store version of Warren. Unlike Warren, he never carved out enough of a role to be a relevant fantasy player in 2023, finishing with just 6.6 PPR points per game while playing behind Kenneth Walker. But, just like Warren, there’s a convincing argument that Charbonnet was actually more efficient than his backfield-mate: Charbonnet led Walker in RYOE/attempt, success rate and good old-fashioned yards per carry. Don’t get me wrong, it’s more likely than not that Charbonnet plays second fiddle to Walker again this year. But there’s a non-negligible chance his role expands under the Seahawks’ new regime. In the worst case where that doesn’t happen at all, the sophomore RB will still be a valuable handcuff.

11.11: Josh Downs (WR – IND)

Downs is a tough player for me to evaluate. This late in the draft, I want to be chasing upside. Some of Downs’ rookie-year metrics, like a 1.79 yards per route run mark (prior to his knee injury), indicate that he might have that upside. But nothing caps wide receiver upside more than not seeing the field in two-receiver sets and I’m worried that will be the case for Downs. He ran a total of eight routes in one or two-receiver sets as a rookie, and that’s not likely to change anytime soon for the 5-foot-7, 171-pound slot receiver. With that said, it’s worth looking the other way and simply chasing the talent this late in a full PPR draft.

12.02: Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB)

Wicks has a similar problem to Downs. He also posted some great metrics as a rookie, including a 77.0 PFF Receiving Grade and 1.94 yards per route run. But his path to full-time snaps is also very unclear, as the Packers are loaded with young receivers. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are all likely to see significant snaps and Wicks may be the odd man out. However, Wicks actually led this quartet of receivers in PFF grade and yards per route run both in and out of the slot in 2023 (although Reed edged him in overall yards per route run thanks to Simpson’s Paradox). If he does manage to stake his claim to a full-time role, Wicks could put up WR3 numbers as Jordan Love‘s top target, making him one of my favorite late-round dart throws in fantasy drafts this year.

13.11: Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF)

Speaking of my favorite late-round dart throws, I love drafting Elijah Mitchell. He has essentially no standalone value, but no one you’re drafting at the end of the 13th round is going to provide that anyway. What he does have is huge contingent upside. I hate to say this as a 49ers fan (knock on wood), but we are just a couple of years removed from Christian McCaffrey being considered the league’s most injury-prone player. I’m not a big believer in “injury-prone” as a concept, but any starting NFL running back has a solid shot to miss at least a game or two. If CMC does miss extended time, Mitchell would immediately be a league-winner as the RB1 in Kyle Shanahan’s fantasy goldmine.

14.02: Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)

I don’t love drafting two tight ends, but the value on Freiermuth in the 14th round was too much to pass up. While he’s not the most dynamic playmaker, Freiermuth does check one very important box for fantasy tight ends: He has a legitimate chance to be the second most-targeted player on his team. Outside of George Pickens, the Steelers don’t have anyone else who is likely to command a large target share. And all know how much Arthur Smith loves tight ends – his Falcons led the league with over 34% of their targets going to TEs in 2023. While that’s not going to happen again, even a 20% target share for Freiermuth would instantly land him among the league’s most-targeted tight ends.

15.11: New Orleans Saints Defense (DST – NO)

Given how volatile and matchup-dependent defensive fantasy performances can be, I almost always plan to stream defenses heading into the season. With that in mind, the Saints are one of my favorite targets this year. They are a talented group, finished as the DST8 last season … and get to play the Panthers in Week 1. I’m optimistic about a comeback year from Bryce Young in his sophomore season, but Carolina’s offense was so dreadful last year that I’m going to target them until they make me regret it.

16.02: Jake Elliott (K – PHI)

If you play in a league with kickers, you should always draft your kicker in the last round. Yes, they’re going to be in your Week 1 lineup, and your WR6 isn’t. But the top kickers don’t score many more points than waiver options, and more importantly, we have almost no idea who they’re going to be. On a good offense and coming off a K6 finish last season, Elliott is as good an option as any to finish off my roster.

Final Thoughts

Overall, I’m happy with this team as my first mock of the season. I definitely would have done some things differently in retrospect, especially choosing to take an early quarterback with how late some solid QBs fell, but that’s why mock drafts are so useful! In my next mock, I’ll do my best to resist temptation and hold off for a later-round QB. Otherwise, this roster shaped up very well. I have three receivers I feel very good about, two decent tight ends and a whole room full of running backs with contingent upside. Sutton as my WR4 to start the season is a very comfortable (if unexciting) place to be, and hopefully one of Wicks or Downs will supplant him during the season.

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