Two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs signed veteran kicker Harrison Butker to a four-year contract extension this offseason worth $25.6 million, including $17.75 million guaranteed. With a record for kickers in total value and guaranteed dollars, the Chiefs understand the importance of having a reliable and accurate kicker.
Say what you want about Butker and his off-field opinions about politics and domestic issues — the guy has ice in his veins. Having a kicker you can count on in clutch situations is important for any team looking to compete for a Super Bowl.
Two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs signed veteran kicker Harrison Butker to a four-year contract extension this offseason worth $25.6 million, including $17.75 million guaranteed. With a record for kickers in total value and guaranteed dollars, the Chiefs understand the importance of having a reliable and accurate kicker.
Say what you want about Butker and his off-field opinions about politics and domestic issues — the guy has ice in his veins. Having a kicker you can count on in clutch situations is important for any team looking to compete for a Super Bowl.
Kicker Fantasy Football Draft Primer
Special teams, particularly kicking, were a huge advantage for the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl. Unfortunately, for 49ers fans, like myself, relying on a rookie kicker instead of a veteran like Butker proved to be a mistake.
The importance of having a strong kicker is not something that carries over from real-life football to fantasy, as most fantasy managers spend little to no time on their kicker draft strategy. If managers miss out on Justin Tucker, they resort to using their last pick on whoever is the highest-ranked kicker left on the board or they leave the draft without a kicker and pick one up off waivers before the season starts.
When it comes to ranking fantasy kickers, the trend we often see is ranking the players who are on teams projected by Vegas oddsmakers to be among the top 12 teams in the league based on record and points scored. This seems fairly intuitive, as just like skill position players, you want to load up on those who play on high-scoring teams that win games.
While high-scoring teams do present a sizable floor of extra points, that does not always carry over to a large number of field goal opportunities. Last season, four of the top 12 kickers in fantasy, including number four overall kicker Jason Myers and number seven overall kicker Cairo Santos played on losing teams that did not rank near the top in points scored.
To take it a step further, six of the top 12 scoring offenses did not produce a kicker ranked in the top 12 last season.
So, if those who rank kickers often get it wrong and choosing kickers based on scoring offenses doesn’t always correlate to kicker success, how should someone go about selecting a kicker on draft day?
Set-it-and-Forget-it
There is no foolproof answer to that question, but I do think there is a method I have found success with over the years. It consists of going for one of the two or three set-it-and-forget-it kickers. If I miss out on those kickers, I stream throughout the year using the K Score strategy I post each week on FantasyPros.
This season, only two kickers fall under that category — Harrison Butker and the GOAT Justin Tucker. They are the two top kickers in my rankings. Brandon Aubrey was a revelation last season, and he may well turn out to be the top kicker again in 2024, but he does not have the track record yet to earn set-it-and-forget-it status.
Tucker and Butker are the only two kickers I would actively hold onto throughout the season and through bye weeks. After those two, and possibly Aubrey, I would recommend streaming based on matchups.
My weekly kicking article provides news updates, trending players, waiver wire targets and rankings based on the K Score, and two players each week I project to finish as a top-12 option despite having a low rank. Check back each week to see where your kicker ranks and to see if there are better options out there on the waiver wire.
Sunk-Cost Fallacy & FOMO
I often find it interesting that fantasy owners will spend next to zero time researching kickers before the draft, yet they hold onto an underperforming kicker for far too long into the season because that kicker was “ranked” high in average draft position (ADP).
They continue to forgo a chance to find a breakout kicker for fear of missing out on what could be from the one they drafted and continue to waste roster spots on a cost they already incurred at the draft.
Don’t be that person.
If you drafted a kicker who is not performing well and there are better options on the waiver wire move on and don’t live with FOMO.
Domes and Weather Considerations
Kickers who play indoors for a majority of their games have an advantage over those who play outside in cold-weather stadiums. This is not something I use to change my ranking of Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker, but it is a tiebreaking variable I use when deciding between streaming options with similar K Scores.
Kickers on the Rise
Every year it seems like there is one or two kickers who come out of nowhere to be a fantasy darling. Last year, it was Brandon Aubrey. In 2022, it was Jason Myers. The year before that, it was Matt Gay. As I mentioned in the previous section, unless you draft Tucker or Butker, don’t be scared to move on from your drafted kicker for someone who starts off the first month of the season hot. That player may just be the breakout star of 2024.
One of my favorite kickers who looks like he could be poised for a career year is Cairo Santos of the Bears. Santos finished last season as the seventh overall kicker, yet he enters this season ranked 14th overall in expert consensus rankings (ECR). A trend I have noticed over the years, dating back to Deshaun Watson with Ka’imi Fairbairn in 2018 and Kyler Murray with Zane Gonzalez in 2019, is that rookie quarterbacks often struggle in the red zone and provide ample opportunities for their kickers.
With Caleb Williams and the loaded offensive weapons in Chicago, it would not surprise me to see the Bears jump into the top 15 in yards per game but struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone. This would be a perfect scenario for Santos.
Matt Gay with the Colts is another player who plays on a team with a stud rookie (for all intents and purposes) in Anthony Richardson. Last season, the Colts ranked 23rd in red zone efficiency and Gay finished 10th among kickers. I am bullish on the Colts, but it would not surprise me to see Richardson have similar red zone issues we have seen with other young quarterbacks. As the No. 12 kicker in ECR, don’t be surprised to see Gay finish in the top six this season.
Bust Candidate
Jason Sanders currently ranks as the number four kicker based on ECR despite finishing 10th last season. The Dolphins do project to be one of the higher-scoring offenses this season, which could give Sanders a nice floor of extra points. My worry is the Dolphins were a top-three red zone team in 2023, which limited Sanders to just 28 field goal attempts in 17 games. And five of those 28 attempts came in one game against the Cowboys. Of the current top-five ranked kickers, Sanders could be the most frustrating to own.
Kicker Rankings
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