FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Mike Maher continue a series of preseason roundtables by discussing QB strategy, players they’re second-guessing and offense that could be sneaky sources of fantasy football goodness. And check out last week’s fantasy football roundtable for even more expert advice.
How does the season-ending injury to rookie Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy affect your ranking of, and your willingness to draft, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones?
Status Quo With Sam
Andrew Erickson: It doesn’t move the needle for me for most of the non-Jefferson-level players. Jordan Addison’s Year 2 projection is already filled with question marks. Aaron Jones might be the lead RB for an offense that has crushed fantasy managers (Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison) over the last two seasons. Sam Darnold entering as QB doesn’t change my stance on Jones and only slightly improves how I feel about Addison.
FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice and Mike Maher continue a series of preseason roundtables by discussing QB strategy, players they’re second-guessing and offense that could be sneaky sources of fantasy football goodness. And check out last week’s fantasy football roundtable for even more expert advice.
How does the season-ending injury to rookie Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy affect your ranking of, and your willingness to draft, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones?
Status Quo With Sam
Andrew Erickson: It doesn’t move the needle for me for most of the non-Jefferson-level players. Jordan Addison’s Year 2 projection is already filled with question marks. Aaron Jones might be the lead RB for an offense that has crushed fantasy managers (Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison) over the last two seasons. Sam Darnold entering as QB doesn’t change my stance on Jones and only slightly improves how I feel about Addison.
I feel the best about Jefferson because I think having the knowledge of Darnold being his GUY for all 17 weeks is great. Darnold’s a veteran who I think can thrive in this Vikings offensive system by feeding his best receiver, Jefferson. Darnold knows this is his last chance to showcase that he is an NFL-starter QB talent. I think with how bad the Vikings’ defense is (specifically the secondary), he’s going to play in a TON of shootouts and really let it rip.
Mike Maher: Honestly, not much changes for me. I’m still targeting Jefferson and Jones and fading Addison. If there is any change at all, maybe I stare at Jefferson a bit longer in the middle of the first round while I try to talk myself into A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson instead. Jefferson’s ECR has fallen to No. 8 overall and WR5, and I’m still comfortable taking him there. But if I’m drafting at 1.08 in 10 leagues (and I know the whole “diversifying your portfolio” approach is boring), I’m probably taking Jefferson in five of them and some combination of Brown and Wilson in the other five.
Jones is someone I like at his current No. 64 overall/RB21 price tag, and I anticipate having a lot of exposure. Despite his age, I think he fits this Kevin O’Connell offense well. For Addison, I don’t think he will replicate his impressive 2023 output if Jefferson is healthy for the entire season. The volume was there for him last season, but as our own Derek Brown points out, there were some pretty major red flags in his profile. His No. 104 overall/WR46 price tag isn’t egregious, but I prefer players like Chase Brown, Brock Bowers and Christian Watson in that tier.
Pat Fitzmaurice: No change. Rookie quarterbacks often struggle, so it’s a stretch to assume McCarthy would have been any better for Jefferson and Addison than Darnold will be.
In 2021, D.J. Moore had a 93-catch, 1,157-yard season for the Panthers with Sam Darnold as his primary QB. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell will be the best playcaller Darnold has played for in the NFL (Sorry, Adam Gase.) And if Darnold falters or is hurt, the fallback is Nick Mullens. No team *wants* to start Mullens because he’s so outrageously interception-prone, but having one of your Vikings pass catchers tied to Mullens isn’t bad because Mullens is such a hyper-aggressive downfield thrower.
Derek Brown: My love for Justin Jefferson hasn’t changed. I understand that Sam Darnold for an entire season could be problematic, but we saw how good Jefferson was late last season despite catching passes from Nick Mullens. In Weeks 15-18, Jefferson averaged 119 receiving yards and 22.1 fantasy points per game. Jefferson is HIM. If Darnold is bad, we could also see Mullens reclaim the starting role, and we have already seen how strong that connection is. If Jefferson dips in drafts, I’m ready to pounce.
For Jones and Addison, it’s a push. Jones’s role will be unchanged with Darnold or Mullens under center, and I was already fading Addison this season.
We’re at the precipice of peak fantasy football draft season. Here’s your chance to talk fantasy managers out of drafting one player you believe is destined to disappoint. Which player has you putting on the hazard lights?
Zack Moss
Derek Brown: I’m avoiding this year’s Alexander Mattison, aka Zack Moss.
Moss has been splitting first-team snaps with Chase Brown, which is already concerning. If we look at Moss’s 2023 season closer, it is frightening. Moss’s 2.79 yards after contact per attempt doesn’t look bad on the surface until you realize that a few big games propped it up. Moss failed even to hit 2.7 yards after contact per attempt in seven games while ranking 23rd out of 50 qualifying backs in elusive rating (per PFF).
If Moss can’t maintain a stranglehold on the early-down work, he won’t be able to look to passing-game usage to save him. Last year, he ranked 41st in yards per route run and 48th in targets per route run. Moss looks like a 2024 land mine to avoid.
Nico Collins
Pat Fitzmaurice: Fading talented players is never fun, but Texans WR Nico Collins is overpriced as a high-end WR2 who typically goes around the Round 2/3 turn.
Collins is unlikely to match his 2023 efficiency — 16.2 yards per catch, 11.9 yards per target, 3.11 yards per route run — and he has to share targets with talented teammates Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
Dak Prescott
Andrew Erickson: I spent this past weekend at a bachelor party (congrats, Andy), and you can only imagine how many questions related to fantasy football I received. A lot of Texans WR questions, to which I echo Fitz’s sentiment that Nico Collins carries the most bust risk. But thinking back on the weekend, I remember specifically citing Dak Prescott as a huge value trap.
It’s telling when a so-called “elite” fantasy QB requires a top-75 pick. He’s the lowest-ranked quarterback before we get into the late-round territory. I think he should be ranked closer to that late-round QB tier. The 2023 season was the perfect storm for Dak. The Dallas defense underwhelmed vs. expectation, and Prescott greatly benefitted from Tony Pollard’s inability to score rushing TDs. Dak led the NFL in passing TDs in 2023. Can he be a fantasy QB1 again? Sure. But I am very skeptical that he’ll be a top fantasy QB again.
Betting on Mike McCarthy doing the right thing is something that, in my opinion, doesn’t work in the long run. And there’s no denying that Dak must be elite from a passing perspective again without any rushing to fall back on. Keep in mind that Dallas likely won’t be as fortunate with injuries. Should anything happen to CeeDee Lamb (or if he continues to hold out), Dak would be in big trouble. There’s a severe lack of WR depth behind Lamb on the roster. Brandin Cooks is getting older, and the Cowboys are hoping Jalen Tolbert can ascend to the No. 3 role. Just draft Jordan Love and his team filled with four No. 1 WRs.
Dontayvion Wicks
Mike Maher: Should I use this space to continue my crusade against Marvin Harrison Jr. at his current price? Nah, I’ve talked about him enough in recent weeks throughout this series. Instead, let’s throw some water on everyone’s favorite sleeper heading into 2024: Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks.
This isn’t to suggest that I don’t like Wicks. Quite the opposite, actually. In fact, I was one of the first people in the fantasy football industry to hop on the Wicks bandwagon. I wrote about him back in February 2023 after what I felt was a quietly impressive Senior Bowl. While he wasn’t getting the headlines coming out of Senior Bowl Week, I saw an underrated WR who was consistently getting open and making tough catches. The Packers managed to grab him in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and then he impressed last season when injuries opened up playing time for him.
This brings us to why I’m fading him in 2024. I love the talent. But what is the path to playing time and target volume? I don’t love that situation nearly as much. Green Bay has Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Bo Melton and Wicks at WR to go with two talented young TEs in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, plus they went out and signed RB Josh Jacobs, drafted RB MarShawn Lloyd and brought back RB AJ Dillon. That many weapons are a great problem to have, but it also makes it nearly impossible to project the distribution of targets and touches for this offense. When targeting late-round WRs, I want to target someone with a clearer path to production.
Through all of the early drafts you’ve done, which offense are you most heavily invested in, and why?
Washington Commanders
Derek Brown: The Washington Commanders. The play volume will be intoxicating, and every meaningful skill player in this offense is cheap in drafts relative to their upside. I can’t stop drafting Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin and Ben Sinnott.
Pat Fitzmaurice: Like DBro, I’ve been scooping up a few select Washington Commanders at what I believe to be discount prices. I typically come out of every draft with at least one of Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson, and I’ve already paired Daniels with McLaurin in 2-3 of my managed leagues.
I’m optimistic that Daniels’ will jump-start the Washington offense, and as DBro pointed out, the Commanders are destined to play at a brisk pace with Kliff Kingsbury as the offensive coordinator.
Atlanta Falcons
Mike Maher: DBro and Pat stole my real answer, which is the Washington Commanders, so I’ll go with my backup: the Atlanta Falcons.
I’m all in on Drake London in the second round this year, especially if I don’t walk out of the first round with Bijan Robinson. We’ve seen how the Justin Jefferson – Kirk Cousins relationship fared for fantasy managers, and I think London could break out in 2024 now that he will finally have a consistent quarterback throwing the ball to him and be free from the Arthur Smith offense.
You can make a similar argument for TE Kyle Pitts. Although fantasy managers who have had exposure to Pitts over the last few years will be reluctant to go back to that well, Pitts was dealing with the same issues London had. Early reports have Pitts splitting time at WR and TE, which is the role he was always meant to play in the NFL. And while I would be lying if I said I had a ton of confidence in HC Raheem Morris, I do think OC Zac Robinson can unlock the potential of London, Robinson and Pitts in 2024.
Denver Broncos/Green Bay Packers
Andrew Erickson: I’ve got two rules that I am going to feature in my final perfect draft strategy guide this year. No. 1: leave every draft with a Denver RB. No. 2: leave every draft with a Packers WR. I am definitely high on Jordan Love’s potential to really take the Green Bay offense to the next level in just his second year as the full-time starter.
Which rookie has most excited you with his performance in training camp and the preseason so far?
Malik Nabers
Mike Maher: Nabers has been as advertised: a young alpha WR. I was ready to fade him entering draft season because of my concerns about Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense, but I’ve actually been moving Nabers up in my rankings. In addition to already flashing his potential in joint practices and preseason action, he’s also the clear No. 1 target in this offense despite being a rookie.
At the risk of being labeled a Marin Harrison Jr. hater, I think Nabers is going to be the more valuable rookie WR to target this season. To get Harrison, you have to draft him early in the second round (No. 15 overall, WR9), while Nabers is going off the board multiple rounds later at No. 40 overall, WR23. Not only do I prefer Nabers at his price, but I think there’s a world where Nabers outproduces Harrison this year straight up.
Pat Fitzmaurice: It’s Nabers for me, too. His exploits in training camp suggest that he could be an immediate superstar. It’s already glaringly obvious that Nabers will be the Giants’ undisputed No. 1 receiver. Seeing Nabers in his first NFL training camp has probably been a lot like seeing Marlon Brando at his first screen test. Sometimes, it’s easy to identify a special performer.
Xavier Worthy
Andrew Erickson: How can it not be Worthy? The guy continues to see starter snaps with Patrick Mahomes AND make plays on the field. In two preseason contests, Worthy has three catches for 62 yards and a touchdown, plus an 11-yard rush.
Per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Worthy has played 19 of a possible 24 snaps with Patrick Mahomes during the team’s first two exhibition games. The Round 1 receiver from Texas is as advertised. Come Thursday night vs. Baltimore in Week 1, people are going to be kicking themselves for not being more aggressive in drafting DeSean Jackson 2.0.
Jayden Daniels
Derek Brown: Daniels has looked the part in camp and during his limited preseason action. He has been elusive when running and on point when he’s been firing darts down the field. I have been enamored with him since I evaluated him as a prospect in February, and he has done nothing to calm my infatuation.
