And we’re back!
We’re pumped to welcome you to our weekly injury report collaboration with FantasyPros. For those we haven’t met yet, I’m Deepak Chona, MD – orthopedic sports surgeon and founder of SportsMedAnalytics (SMA). Our aim with SMA is to merge clinical experience, medical data, and internally developed algorithms to bring you the industry’s leading data-driven NFL injury analysis.
We love what we do, but we wouldn’t be doing it without your support. So we thank you very much for everything you’ve given us and look forward to keeping it rolling.
As always, you can find our full database of injury updates at sportsmedanalytics.com and can hit us up any time on Twitter/X @SportMDAnalysis. Now let’s get to it.
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Preseason Injury Updates (2024 Fantasy Football)
RB hamstring injuries average 2-3 weeks. Reports suggest Gibbs intends to return at ~2, which would confirm relatively mild severity. Don’t expect much of a performance dip by the time Week 1 starts, but he does carry ~20% re-injury risk through the first half of the season.
Comments suggest a moderate severity knee bursa-related injury. This isn’t generally structurally concerning, so the risk of dropping his production or increasing his re-injury rate is likely low. McVay, who is rated as highly accurate on the injury CoachSpeak Index, commented that we should expect Nacua to be ready for Week 1, which further strengthens our suspicions.
SC joint dislocations are dangerous, but the good news is they aren’t likely to cause major performance dips or re-injury risks upon return. The reported timeline was 4-6 weeks. Tyreek Hill and Danny Amendola both took 5 to return, which would place Brown back at Week 2.
He does have a calf strain, but reports suggest it is relatively mild. Expect 100% strength by Week 1, but the recurrence risk on these is ~20%. As far as age and CMC’s history, neither is particularly concerning. The RB age drop-off usually doesn’t hit at 28, and his past has a collection of common injuries without a pattern that suggests an anatomic weak link.
Data suggests his ’23 AC joint (shoulder) surgery shouldn’t drop his throwing accuracy or power. Injury risk going forward will depend mostly on the nature of the hits he takes/seeks. Specifically, mobile QBs who slide don’t carry elevated risk, but those who lower their shoulder get injured at rates similar to RBs.
Managing plantar fascia injuries is tricky. Herbert is out of the boot, which confirms relatively low severity. There’s a moderate risk of this acting up in-season, which could limit his mobility. However, these can be managed with injection, and given his extreme durability history of playing through injury, the most likely outcome here is that Herbert doesn’t miss any time.
Yet another Lion down but not out. Reports suggest a moderate severity hamstring. Data favors playing Week 1 at 90+%, but the concern here is also re-injury risk. If he returns at the end of this week as projected, that rate would be ~25% for the year.
Achilles data heavily favors strength and agility deficits. We’ll probably see that result in a focus on the quick passing game, decreased tolerance for pressure, and possibly some limitations on deep ball throwing power. With a strong O-line and skill players around him, we’d expect Cousins to excel in the short and medium game starting Week 1.
Rodgers has two advantages over Cousins. First, it’s his left leg, which is less critical for push-off strength when he throws. Second, he’s had a few extra months of rehab, which helps greatly with the strengthening process. His rushing production has been declining since ’20, and we’d expect that trend to continue. Similar to Cousins, however, we’d expect a strong showing from the pocket with a focus on the quick passing game.
Rumors have circulated that Hockenson may be back earlier than expected, but the data favors a mid-October return as the most likely scenario. As a high-level (~80th percentile) athlete, his performance dip projects as only ~15%, but it will likely be greater if he rushes the return. Of note, Hockenson does carry an elevated risk of minor injury during the first 6 weeks of his return.
Data favors a post-ACL comeback similar to ’23 Breece Hall. Comments suggest a Week 3-4 return as most likely, but young RBs also tend to average ~4 games to ramp up their touches. Efficiency dips ~15-20% initially, with his 90% point projected for Week 8. Similar to Hockenson, Brooks will carry a ~15% increased risk of minor injuries (e.g., hamstring strains) for his first 6 games back. An overall strong second half is projected.
Both dealt with multi-ligament knee injuries last offseason. These are massive hits that tend to cause 20-30% performance dips and major limitations in year 1 of the return. As young, elite athletes, both are projected to return to pre-injury form by the start of ’24. Look for major rises if they can stay healthy.
And that’s a wrap, but just for the moment. Who’d we miss? Hit us up on Twitter/X @FantasyPros and @SportMDAnalysis with your questions. We’ll be back soon!
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