Fantasy Football Draft Values: Jayden Daniels, Tua Tagovailoa, Derrick Henry

Harkening back to my Sesame Street musical roots:

“One of these things is not like the other

One of these things doesn’t belong

Can you tell which thing is not like the other

By the time I finish this song?”

Now, I can officially check that off my bucket list, as I used that as an introduction to an article. Good job, me.

Ahem.

Several things are unlike the other when comparing predraft fantasy football rankings from RTSports to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Don’t get me wrong — we all have different valuations and opinions on players. Examining the differences is where the fun lies. That said, let’s attempt to benefit from pointing out several players currently slotted much higher in ECR versus the RTSports default list. Opportunity lies for those who can identify value later on.

Fantasy Football Draft Values: RTS Leagues

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) | ECR: 11th overall/RTSports: 14th Overall
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) | ECR: 14th overall/RTSports: 18th Overall

Has the Jayden Daniels hype train gone too far and finally sprung off the rails? With each passing preseason game, fantasy managers have slid Daniels ever higher in their rankings, culminating with him reaching low-end QB1 status, all while he hasn’t taken one single snap in a regular season game yet.

His talent is tantalizing, that is for sure. Daniels has a magnificent blend of rushing upside and ability to push the ball downfield and is surrounded by several proven veterans on all levels of the field who have had sustained success as receivers (looking at you, Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler). The 2023 Heisman winner was quickly named the Washington Commanders starter after the team’s second preseason game after completing 12-of-15 passes for 123 yards, 16 rushing yards and a touchdown.

RTSports is slightly more bearish on Daniels, ranking him behind Brock Purdy and Jared Goff — options with little rushing upside but proven track records of sustained success as pocket passers. We currently project Daniels for nearly 600 rushing yards and five scores on the ground and have seen higher estimates elsewhere in the industry. If Daniels proves to be a proper dual-threat option, there is room for a return on investment.

In the case of Tua Tagovailoa, one has to wonder if 2023 was his statistical ceiling, passing for a league-high 4,624 yards on the ninth-most attempts (560). Miami’s 456 rushing attempts last year were middle of the pack, suggesting that elite efficiency, coupled with the league’s best yards after catch (YAC) machine Tyreek Hill did some serious heavy lifting.

The anti-Jordan Love, Tagovailoa, started incredibly strong over the first eight weeks of the season, ranking as the overall QB5 in fantasy points, averaging over 300 passing yards and more than two touchdowns per contest (stats courtesy of my friend Pat Fitzmaurice). Afterward, he tumbled down to the QB20, with a significant drop off in yards per game (245.3) and touchdowns per game (1.2). A brutal schedule was partially to blame (Miami faced the New York Jets twice, Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo during that stretch), but one has to wonder if we’ve seen peak Tagovailoa. We’re banking on a rebound, with RTSports being slightly more timid.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry (RB – BAL) | ECR: 17th overall/RTSports: 52nd Overall

I try not to use the word “egregious” too often in my articles, but this one merits an exception. That is a chasm between where we view Derrick Henry and RTSports.

Our RB7 for 2024, Henry, is fresh off of another strong campaign last year, totaling 1,167 rushing yards on 280 attempts with 12 rushing scores, coupled with 28 receptions for 214 yards. Statistically speaking, Henry wasn’t in the same ludicrous territory that he finished between 2019-2022, mainly due to Tennessee’s struggles under center, coupled with an offensive line that was an utter sieve at stopping defenders. His farewell tour with the Titans didn’t quite go out with a whimper, but it wasn’t a roar either.

With Baltimore contending for a Super Bowl, Henry enters the season at age 29 and will undoubtedly be the bell cow for the Ravens with little competition behind him. The “how much tread is left on the tires” argument is the likely cause for RTSports being gun-shy on Henry, coupled with Lamar Jackson‘s propensity to scramble, capping overall touches for the big bruiser.

Call me not as concerned.

We are still projecting Henry to have over 265 rushing attempts, eclipse the double-digit rushing touchdown mark for the seventh consecutive season and remain undaunted by Father Time. In the words of Derek Brown, “Some players are simply built differently.” Giddy Up.