Fantasy Football Draft Values: Derrick Henry & George Pickens (2024)

Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the second part of an eight-part series, I identified two fantasy football ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC North. We dive into a few notable picks below.

Fantasy Football Draft Values

ADP via FantasyPros

Fantasy Football ADP Values

Derrick Henry (BAL): ADP 20.3 | RB9

Some fantasy players will have concerns about Henry for two reasons – his age and career workload. The veteran turned 30 in January and is one of the oldest running backs in the NFL. Meanwhile, he has over 2,000 career rushing attempts, including 303 or more in three of the past five years. However, Henry was the RB8 last season, averaging 13.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite splitting the backfield work with Tyjae Spears.

More importantly, he averaged only 1.11 yards before contact per rushing attempt behind a horrendous Tennessee Titans offensive line last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Thankfully, Henry won’t have to play behind that awful offensive line again. Meanwhile, the veteran finished second in rushing yards (1,167) and fifth among running backs in touchdowns (12). While some are worried about Lamar Jackson’s impact on his fantasy value, Henry won’t lose rushing touchdowns to him, as the superstar quarterback frequently isn’t used around the goal line.

George Pickens (PIT): ADP 58.3 | WR28

Pickens is one of my favorite wide receiver draft values this year because of his league-winning upside. The former Georgia star has flashed massive upside but has also struggled with consistency. Yet, he is a popular third-year breakout candidate after the Steelers traded away Diontae Johnson this offseason, making Pickens the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver in Pittsburgh. He was outstanding in the four games without Johnson last season, ranking as the WR13, averaging 14.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

Furthermore, Pickens posted the eighth-highest fantasy points per route ran rate (0.49) among wide receivers with at least 110 routes (per Fantasy Points Data) during the four-week window with Johnson out of the lineup. The young receiver has never had a chance at breaking out because of the quarterback situation, seeing only a 68.9% catchable target rate (ranking 61st in the NFL) last season (per PlayerProfiler). Don’t be surprised if he is this year’s Nico Collins after the team significantly upgraded the quarterback position.