Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the final part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC West.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC West
ADP Values
Kenneth Walker III (SEA): ADP 45.3 | RB17
Many pushed Walker down in their 2022 fantasy rankings after the Seahawks used a second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet. However, the former Michigan State star was a productive fantasy running back, ending last season as the RB19, averaging 12.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He posted a higher fantasy points per game average than D’Andre Swift and Tony Pollard. Unfortunately, the team’s offensive line struggled last year. Thankfully, the Seahawks improved the unit in the offseason, adding Laken Tomlinson and Connor Williams.
Walker is one of the more dangerous running backs in the NFL. He had the highest missed forced tackle per attempt (31%) among running backs with at least 150 rushing attempts in 2023. More importantly, he is the clear-cut lead back in Seattle. The former Michigan State star accounted for 65% of the backfield’s rushing attempts, 64.5% of the yards, 90% of the touchdowns, and 65.6% of the fantasy points last season. Reportedly, Walker has taken control of the backfield, pushing Charbonnet into a handcuff-only role.
Kyler Murray (ARI): ADP 66.3 | QB8
The fantasy football community is starting to warm up to Murray as a top-six quarterback. Yet, his ADP has him getting drafted behind Anthony Anthony Richardson and Joe Burrow. Unfortunately, many have forgotten how dominant the former Oklahoma star was before suffering a torn ACL. He was a top-six quarterback his first two years in the NFL and the QB10 in 2021, averaging 21.5 or more fantasy points per game in two of those three seasons. Furthermore, the veteran was the QB7 in 2022 on a points-per-game basis.
More importantly, Murray was a potential league winner off the waiver wire at the end of last year. The former Oklahoma star was the QB10 from when he made his season debut in Week 10 through Week 17, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game. Murray averaged 30.5 rushing yards per game in 2023. However, he should be better this season after being more than a year removed from the torn ACL. Murray will have a top-six finish in 2024 with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride at his disposal.
Bust Candidates
Kyren Williams (LAR): ADP 15.7 | RB7
Los Angeles had the top two waiver wire additions last season in Puka Nacua and Williams. The former Notre Dame star was the RB6, averaging 19.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, averaging five yards per rushing attempt. However, he was an RB1 because of volume and not his talents. Williams ranked 20th in yards after contact per attempt, 18th in missed forced tackle rate, and 26th in explosive run rate among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).
Unfortunately, the third-year player has struggled with injuries in his career, missing seven games as a rookie and four contests last year with a high ankle sprain. Furthermore, he suffered a fractured hand in the playoffs and a foot injury in the offseason. Meanwhile, the coaching staff has high expectations for Blake Corum. He will cut into Williams’ 25 touches per game average over the six final regular season games. While he is still an RB1, the third-year player comes with significant risk.
George Kittle (SF): ADP 61.7 | TE6
Kittle was the only tight end with over 1,000 receiving yards last season (1,020). He also ranked second in receiving touchdowns (six) among tight ends, finishing behind only Sam LaPorta. However, the veteran finished as the TE5, averaging 10.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in 2023. Unfortunately, it was his lowest fantasy points per game average since his rookie year. More importantly, Kittle’s fantasy points per game average has declined for six consecutive years despite seeing an uptick in receiving touchdowns over the past few seasons.
After totaling 14 receiving scores over the first four seasons of his career, the veteran has had at least six in three straight years. Yet, it hasn’t helped his fantasy production. Furthermore, Kittle’s fantasy points per route run average declined by nearly 10% from the 2022 season to last year. Fantasy players should expect Kittle’s ADP to take off if the 49ers trade away Brandon Aiyuk without receiving a meaningful wide receiver back in the deal. Yet, he shouldn’t get drafted higher than the TE6 after a potential trade.
Sleepers to Target
Matthew Stafford (LAR): ADP 144.7 | QB20
The quarterback position has never been deeper for fantasy players. While Stafford isn’t someone fantasy players should draft in a 1QB league, the future Hall of Famer is one of my top targets in superflex leagues this year. The veteran was QB15 last season, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game, positing a higher average than multiple big-name passers, including Tua Tagovailoa (15.9), Joe Burrow (14.7), and Deshaun Watson (14.5). While that improved from his injury-riddled 2022 season, it was still well below his first year in Los Angeles.
However, Stafford was outstanding and a potential league winner off the waiver wire in the second half of the 2023 season once all his weapons were healthy. The former No. 1 overall pick was the QB6 from Week 12 through Week 17, averaging 284.2 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 20.8 fantasy points per game. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp likely healthy for Week 1 and the emergence of Jordan Whittington, Stafford has the weapons needed to push for a top-three finish in passing touchdowns in 2024.
Greg Dortch (ARI): ADP 254.3 | WR81
While Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are the focal points of Arizona’s passing attack, the Cardinals have appealing late-round draft targets at wide receiver. Michael Wilson is a popular sleeper candidate following Zay Jones‘ five-game suspension. However, my favorite sleeper wide receiver on the team is Dortch. The veteran has never been a must-start wide receiver for fantasy football. Yet, Dortch has been productive when given an opportunity. He averaged 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in the four contests with more than four targets last season.
Furthermore, Dortch shined in 2022, with Rondale Moore missing half the year. The veteran averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game in the eight contests he played at least 50% of the snaps that season. Dortch posted a similar fantasy points per route rate to his former teammate Marquise Brown (0.23 vs. 0.26) last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Kyler Murray targeted a slot receiver on 29.5% of his pass attempts in 2023. Don’t be surprised if Dortch puts up low-end WR3 numbers this year.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
