Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the seventh part of an eight-part series, I will identify two fantasy football ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC South.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC South
ADP Values
Chris Godwin (TB): ADP 76.3 | WR33
Fantasy players struggled with starting Godwin, as he scored 9.6 or fewer half-point PPR fantasy points in 64.7% of the games last year. Furthermore, the veteran averaged under 10 fantasy points per game for the first time since 2018. However, the former Penn State star hadn’t finished lower than the WR20 in the three past seasons where he played at least 13 games before last year. More importantly, Godwin is prime for a bounce-back season, with the Buccaneers moving him back into the slot in 2024.
The veteran wide receiver has always been at his best playing in the slot. Last year, Godwin averaged 0.41 fantasy points per route run in the slot compared to 0.26 lined up outside (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, he is due for positive touchdown regression after totaling two scores and a career-low 1.5% touchdown rate last season. There is a chance Godwin outscores Mike Evans this year. Therefore, fantasy players should pass on Evans at his ADP (31.7 | WR15) and target Godwin nearly four rounds later.
Diontae Johnson (CAR): ADP 90.7 | WR37
Johnson is one of the more underrated wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football. The veteran was the WR8 in 2021, averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, posting a higher average than Keenan Allen and Jaylen Waddle. Unfortunately, he arguably has had the worst quarterback play over the past two years. Johnson averaged only 8.8 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons despite seeing 7.8 targets per contest. He ranked 70th in catchable target rate in 2023 (per PlayerProfiler).
Many will avoid drafting Johnson after getting traded to the Panthers in the offseason. While Bryce Young struggled as a rookie, he made Adam Thielen a top-five wide receiver over the first six weeks last year. Meanwhile, Johnson had the 12th-highest yards per route run rate (3.21) against man coverage among wide receivers with at least 65 routes last season despite awful quarterback production (per Fantasy Points Data). Dave Canales recently said that the veteran will be the focal point of the team’s passing attack this year.
Bust Candidates
Rachaad White (TB): ADP 34.7 | RB13
While White was the RB7, averaging 13.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year, he was an RB1 because of volume, not his talents. White was second in rushing attempts (272) but 14th in yards (990). He also ranked 89th in yards after contact per attempt, 84th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 76th in explosive run rate. Furthermore, his explosive run rate (2.2%) was lower than Latavius Murray’s, while his rushing yards after contact per attempt (2.24) was worse than Kevin Harris’ (per Fantasy Points Data).
More importantly, White was a top-10 running back because of his role in the passing game. He had the seventh-most targets (70), fourth-most receptions (64), and third-most receiving yards (549) among running backs last season. Over 44% of his fantasy points scored in 2023 came in the passing game. However, that likely won’t happen again after the Buccaneers added Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving during the NFL Draft. While James Cook has a slightly lower ADP than White, I’ll draft him over the former Arizona State star.
Alvin Kamara (NO): ADP 44.7 | RB16
Kamara missed four games last year because of injury and suspension. Yet, he was the RB14, averaging 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, the veteran was the RB5 on a points-per-game basis, posting a higher average than multiple first-round fantasy running backs, including Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson. Kamara was once an explosive runner, averaging five yards per rushing attempt over the first four seasons of his career. Unfortunately, he has averaged four or fewer yards per rushing attempt in three consecutive years.
Furthermore, over 17% of Kamara’s fantasy points in the past two years were from receptions, while 47.4% came in the passing game. Unfortunately, fantasy players shouldn’t expect similar production in 2024 after the Saints hired Klint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator in the offseason. More importantly, the veteran running back’s touchdown production has fallen off a cliff lately. After totaling a career-high 16 rushing scores in 2020, Kamara has had 11 touchdowns over the past three seasons, with Taysom Hill earning more rushing attempts near the goal line.
Sleepers to Target
Jonathon Brooks (CAR): ADP 95.7 | RB33
The rookie running back isn’t a typical sleeper. Many were excited to draft Brooks before head coach Dave Canales said the former Texas star likely won’t make his NFL debut until Week 3 or Week 4. However, he is still one of my favorite running backs to draft this year, especially as a low-end RB3. The rookie could be a league winner in the second half of the 2024 season. He averaged 6.1 rushing yards per attempt and 113.9 yards per game last year.
Brooks also had the 11th-most missed tackles forced (63) in 2023 despite missing the final four games with a torn ACL (per PFF). Canales made Rachaad White an RB1 last year despite averaging only 3.6 yards per rushing attempt and a 14% missed tackle forced per attempt rate per Fantasy Football Data). Meanwhile, Odell Beckham Jr. was a top-seven wide receiver as a rookie after missing the first four weeks with an injury. Don’t be surprised if Brooks has a similar rookie season in Canales’ running back-friendly offense.
Kirk Cousins (ATL): ADP 135.7 | QB18
There are several appealing draft options at the quarterback position this year. Therefore, fantasy players shouldn’t be afraid to wait until the double-digit rounds to select a quarterback in a 1QB league. My favorite passer with an ADP outside the top 15 quarterbacks is Cousins. The veteran has been productive for fantasy players despite offering little rushing upside, averaging only 6.4 rushing yards per game in his career. Yet, Cousins has consistently been a low-end QB1 since becoming a full-time starter in 2015.
While he is coming off a torn Achilles, the veteran didn’t start training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list and will be 100% healthy for Week 1. Cousins has an outstanding receiving core in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney and Bijan Robinson. The veteran has averaged at least 17.2 or more fantasy points in all but one year in his career as a starter. While he is getting drafted as a mid-range QB2, don’t be surprised if Cousins has another low-end QB1 finish this year.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
