Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the sixth part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC North.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC North
ADP Values
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): ADP 7.7 | WR5
Despite being a fourth-round pick in the NFL Draft, St. Brown has been one of the more consistent wide receivers in fantasy football since the second half of his rookie season. The star receiver finished as the WR8 in 2022 and the WR3 last year, averaging 15.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over those two years. Furthermore, he is coming off the best season of his career, setting career-highs in receptions (119), targets (164), receiving yards (1,515), and touchdowns (10).
More importantly, St. Brown is the focal point of the Lions’ passing attack, posting the sixth-highest target share (27.9%) and the fourth-highest target per route run rate (30%) among wide receivers with at least 70 routes in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, the superstar receiver was one of seven players with double-digit receiving scores despite his teammate, Sam LaPorta, also scoring 10 touchdowns last year. While many have high expectations for Jameson Williams this season, St. Brown should have no trouble posting another top-five finish.
Jordan Love (GB): ADP 71.7 | QB10
After sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for years, Love finally got to start last season. Unfortunately, he had multiple doubters heading into his first year as the starter. The former Utah State star started the season on fire. He was the QB4 over the first three weeks, averaging 218.3 passing yards, 2.3 touchdowns, and 22.9 fantasy points per game, scoring 20.3 or more in every contest. While Love went through a slump, the first-year starter was a league-winner to end the 2023 season.
The former Utah State star was the QB2 over the final seven contests of the fantasy season, averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns and 21.6 fantasy points per game. Love had at least two passing touchdowns in 10 of the final 11 games, including the two playoff matchups. More importantly, he has an outstanding set of young pass catchers, many of whom struggled to stay healthy last year. Love’s set of weapons and hot finish to last season gives him plenty of upside and one of the safest floors among quarterbacks.
Bust Candidates
Aaron Jones (MIN): ADP 55.7 | RB18
Jones was outstanding for DFS players and bettors during the NFL playoffs. He was the RB2 in the postseason on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest against two talented defenses. The veteran running back had at least 108 rushing yards and 16.6 or more fantasy points in both playoff matchups. However, fantasy players should be more concerned with Jones missing six games and leaving two others early during the regular season than his playoff success.
Unfortunately, the veteran running is coming off the worst fantasy season of his career since his rookie year. Jones set career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%), per PFF. Furthermore, he had a lower missed tackle forced per rushing attempt rate (16%) than Royce Freeman (per Fantasy Points Data). Jones will turn 30 in December and struggled to stay healthy last season. Instead, fantasy players should pass on him and draft Ty Chandler with a later ADP (154.3 | RB47).
Keenan Allen (CHI): ADP 69.7 | WR30
The star receiver was the WR8 last year, averaging 17.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Allen was the WR3 on a points-per-game basis, outscoring every wide receiver other than Tyreek Hill (19.8) and CeeDee Lamb (19.7) in 2023. However, his fantasy football outlook for the upcoming season drastically differs from what fantasy players have expected over the past few years. Allen went from being Justin Herbert’s No. 1 wide receiver on a pass-happy offense to part of a crowded receiving core in Chicago.
While the veteran wide receiver should been outstanding for Caleb Williams, his fantasy value took a massive hit after getting traded in the offseason. Allen is a volume-based receiver, averaging 9.4 targets per game in his career. Unfortunately, he won’t see the same target volume with the Bears. DJ Moore will remain the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Meanwhile, Allen will need to fight off Rome Odunze for snaps and targets. More importantly, he has missed 11 games over the past two years because of injuries.
Sleepers to Target
Christian Watson (GB): ADP 102.7 | WR43
Watson was a league winner during his rookie season. He was the WR7 from Week 10 through Week 18 that year, averaging 15.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former North Dakota State star posted a higher fantasy points per game average than several superstars during those nine weeks, including Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase. The fantasy football community had high hopes for Watson heading into the 2023 season, calling him a sophomore-year breakout candidate. Unfortunately, he struggled to stay healthy.
The talented receiver has been productive when healthy but has missed nearly a third of the games in his career because of injury, including eight contests last season. However, Watson has averaged 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game for his career. More importantly, he had the sixth-most end zone targets (15) and ninth-most end zone touchdowns (five) in the NFL last year despite missing nearly half the season (per Fantasy Points Data). If Watson can stay healthy, the third-year player could be a league-winning pick.
Jared Goff (DET): ADP 104.3 | QB13
While Goff isn’t an elite fantasy football quarterback, the veteran will be one of my highest-rostered players this year. He was the QB7 in 2023, averaging 17 fantasy points per game, a higher average than several big-name quarterbacks, including Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow. More importantly, fantasy players can draft Goff behind Tagovailoa and Burrow this year despite playing in one of the best situations for quarterbacks. The Lions held onto offensive coordinator Ben Johnson while only losing Josh Reynolds from last year’s offense in the offseason.
More importantly, Goff will play only three games outdoors in 2024, including only one over the first 15 weeks of the season. The veteran quarterback averaged 2.1 passing touchdowns and 19.9 fantasy points per game in 12 contests in a dome last year. By comparison, he averaged one passing touchdown and 13.3 fantasy points per game in the five contests outside. Furthermore, Goff threw four of his 12 interceptions playing outdoors. Fantasy players should draft Goff, especially if they also draft one of the rookie quarterbacks.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.