Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the fifth part of an eight-part series, I will identify two fantasy football ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC East.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC East
ADP Values
Dak Prescott (DAL): ADP 69.7 | QB9
While the Cowboys are in a contract dispute with CeeDee Lamb, fantasy players should expect them to work out a long-term deal before Week 1. Therefore, Prescott is an excellent value as the ninth quarterback off the board. The veteran was a league winner despite a slow start last season. He was the QB21 over the first five weeks, averaging only 12.6 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Prescott was the QB1, averaging 24 fantasy points per game after the team’s Week 7 bye.
The star quarterback led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns while finishing third in yards (4,516). More importantly, Prescott averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game after the bye week. Dallas lost multiple pieces on defense, including defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Furthermore, the Cowboys have arguably the worst running back unit in the NFL. With a defense expected to regress and a limited rushing attack, fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised if the team throws even more than last year, giving Prescott top-three upside.
Jake Ferguson (DAL): ADP 85.3 | TE9
Fantasy players had to spend an early-round pick at the tight end position last year to secure an every-week starter. However, that isn’t the case with several plug-and-play tight end options this season. My favorite mid-to-late round target is Ferguson. He was the TE9 in his first year as the starter, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. More importantly, the young tight end was Dak Prescott’s clear-cut No. 2 weapon in the passing game.
Ferguson finished second on the team in receptions (71), targets (102), and receiving yards (761) in 2023. While he ranked third in receiving touchdowns (five), the former Wisconsin star broke out in the Cowboys’ playoff loss, totaling 10 receptions on 12 targets for 93 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and 32.3 fantasy points. With Michael Gallup retired and Brandin Cooks on the wrong side of 30, don’t be surprised if Ferguson ranks among the league leaders in targets among tight ends.
Bust Candidates
Austin Ekeler (WAS): ADP 93.7 | RB31
While he was once a top-tier running back, Ekeler is on my do-not-draft list this year. The veteran running back went from a featured heavy workload and a pocket passing quarterback with the Los Angeles Chargers to being Brian Robinson Jr.’s partner in crime with a dynamic running quarterback. Adding Ekeler was an outstanding move for Washington, as he is a solid pass protector and a reliable receiver out of the backfield for an offense that lacks veteran playmakers, but it severely crushed his fantasy value.
Meanwhile, Robinson will be the team’s lead back and the goal line specialist. More importantly, Ekeler’s efficiency has declined. He has had back-to-back seasons with a 2.99 or lower yards after contact per attempt average after averaging at least 3.01 or more yards each of his first five years in the NFL (per PFF). Furthermore, Ekeler’s 2.2% explosive run rate last season ranked 39th among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, posting a lower rate than Joshua Kelley and Alexander Mattison (per Fantasy Points Data).
Dallas Goedert (PHI): ADP 109.7 | TE12
Goedert is still a talented starting-caliber NFL tight end. However, his days as a top-12 tight end are likely over. The veteran was the TE14, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, totaling only 7.6 more total fantasy points than Jonnu Smith. His 7.6 fantasy points per game average was the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2018. More importantly, Goedert had three receiving touchdowns, making it the third time in the past four years that he had three or fewer scores.
Philadelphia’s passing attack flows through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving Goedert fighting for targets. The veteran was 11th in target share (17.7%), ranking behind Zach Ertz, and 18th in target per route run rate (20%) behind Chigoziem Okonkwo among tight ends with at least 40 targets last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, his target volume could decline even more with Saquon Barkley in town. Fantasy players should draft Pat Freiermuth with a later ADP (135.3 | TE15) ahead of Goedert.
Sleepers to Target
Jayden Daniels (WAS): ADP 107.3 | QB14
Quarterbacks who can make plays with their legs are worth their weight in gold to fantasy players. Therefore, Daniels could be a league winner, especially as the QB14 in the ADP. He had over 2,000 rushing yards and 21 scores during his two seasons at LSU, breaking off several explosive long runs for touchdowns. Despite ranking 122nd in the FBS in rushing attempts (120), the superstar finished 12th in yards (1,250) last year. Furthermore, Daniels is an excellent passer, unlike many rushing quarterbacks coming out of college.
The former LSU star had a 40-4 touchdown to interception ratio in 2023. Daniels ranked 47th in pass attempts last season (332). However, he had the fourth-most big-time throws (29) last year while ranking 134th in turnover-worthy plays (seven), according to PFF. While the Commanders won’t be trading for Brandon Aiyuk, they have a solid receiving core led by Terry McLaurin. Furthermore, Washington will be chasing points for much of the season, giving Daniels plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points.
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG): ADP 203.3 | WR76
New York’s receiving core lacks a proven pass catcher following Darren Waller’s retirement. While Malik Nabers is one of my favorite wide receiver draft targets this year, Robinson is the better value at draft cost. Daniel Jones loves to target the middle part of the field, which will help the slot receiver. In the five games he played with Jones last season, Robinson had a 26% target per route run rate and a 20.2% first-read target share (per Fantasy Points Data).
The receiver’s 20% target per route run rate for the 2023 season ranked third on the team. However, the two players with a higher rate (Sterling Shepard at 26% and Waller at 22%) are no longer on the roster. More importantly, the former Kentucky star had six or more targets in nearly half of his games last year. Robinson will be over a year removed from a torn ACL this upcoming season. Don’t be surprised if he has a third-year breakout.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
