Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the fourth part of an eight-part series, I will identify two fantasy football draft ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC West.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC West
ADP Values
Patrick Mahomes (KC): ADP 32.7 | QB3
I’m a fan of waiting on drafting a quarterback in a 1QB league this year, with several excellent late-round options for fantasy players. However, the one exception I will make is for Mahomes. The superstar had the worst season of his career as the starter, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game. It was the first time he averaged fewer than 20.5 fantasy points as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. However, Mahomes set career bests in rushing attempts (75) and yards (389) last year.
More importantly, Kansas City made massive changes to his receiving core in the offseason, giving Mahomes arguably the best set of weapons of his career. Travis Kelce is healthy after dealing with injuries last year. Rashee Rice likely won’t get suspended for his off-the-field issues until the 2025 season. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy give Mahomes reliable downfield weapons for the first time since Kansas City traded away Tyreek Hill. Don’t be surprised if the superstar has the best year of his career.
Zamir White (LV): ADP 68.7 | RB23
White barely saw the field over his first two years in the NFL, totaling 37 rushing attempts in his first 27 career games. However, he was outstanding when Josh Jacobs suffered a quad injury. White was the RB8, averaging 14.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the final four contests last season with Jacobs sidelined. The former Georgia star had 20 or more touches in every contest, totaling 100 or more scrimmage yards in all but one game as the starter.
Furthermore, White had the fourth-highest yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.06) among running backs with at least 30 attempts during those four weeks, ranking ahead of Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs, and the ninth-best explosive run rate (6%), ranking ahead of Breece Hall and Jonathan Taylor (per Fantasy Points Data). While Dylan Laube could carve out a role in the passing game, White should have a featured role on the ground. He has top-12 upside in what should be a run-heavy Las Vegas offense.
Bust Candidates
Travis Kelce (KC): ADP 26.7 | TE2
While Kelce was the TE1 on a points-per-game basis last year, he wasn’t the elite tight end fantasy players expected. The veteran averaged 11.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his lowest mark since playing with Alex Smith in 2016. Fantasy players can argue that the superstar will bounce back after dealing with injuries last season. However, the Chiefs have cut back on Kelce’s snap count for the third consecutive year. The veteran played fewer than 870 snaps last season for the first time since 2014.
No team in NFL history has won three consecutive Super Bowls. However, that’s the goal for Kansas City this year. Therefore, the Chiefs could continue to cut back on Kelce’s workload to keep him healthy for the playoffs, especially after their additions at wide receiver this offseason. Furthermore, the team has high hopes for fourth-round rookie tight end Jared Wiley. While he should be one of the first three tight ends drafted in 2024, Kelce’s early third-round ADP is too high.
Courtland Sutton (DEN): ADP 119.3 | WR47
Fantasy players had high expectations for Jerry Jeudy heading into last season. However, it was Sutton who became Denver’s No. 1 wide receiver. The veteran had 10 receiving touchdowns last year, the fourth-most in the NFL. By comparison, he never had more than six receiving scores in a season before last year. Not only were the 10 touchdowns a career-high, but they accounted for over 40% of his career total. Yet, Sutton was far from a must-start wide receiver for fantasy players.
The veteran wide receiver was only the WR35, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing in 16 contests and his high touchdown rate. Sutton averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Kendrick Bourne despite having six more receiving scores. Furthermore, over 37% of Sutton’s fantasy points last year came from his receiving touchdowns. With Bo Nix expected to take over under center, don’t be surprised if Sutton struggles after having a career year in 2023.
Sleepers to Target
Gus Edwards (LAC): ADP 115.3 | RB38
Many expected the Chargers to pick Jim Harbaugh’s former Michigan running back, Blake Corum, during the NFL Draft. Instead, the team waited until the sixth round to select a running back, picking Kimani Vidal. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins has gotten some hype recently but is coming off a torn Achilles. While some think Vidal or Dobbins could steal the starting role at some point this season, Edwards is the only Los Angeles running back I will draft this year.
While he changed teams in the offseason, the veteran running back is coming off the best year of his career, totaling 13 rushing touchdowns. Despite playing alongside Lamar Jackson, Edwards had the third-most rushing scores among running backs and the fifth-most in the NFL. More importantly, he was the RB20 in 2023, averaging 10.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite seeing fewer than 13 touches per contest. Don’t be surprised if Edwards is the featured running back in Harbaugh’s run-heavy offense, especially near the goal line.
Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN): ADP 167.7 | RB52
Denver’s backfield is a wide-open competition heading into the 2024 season. However, McLaughlin is the guy fantasy players should want on their team. He impressed as a rookie, averaging 11.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 6.9 yards per rushing attempt in the four contests with at least seven attempts. More importantly, McLaughlin was the team’s top running back. The former Youngstown State star had the 12th-best explosive run rate among running backs, with at least 75 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).
McLaughlin also led the Broncos in missed forced tackle rate per rushing attempt (29%) and yards after contact per attempt (3.49). Don’t be surprised if Sean Payton views him as his next Alvin Kamara and gives the second-year player a significant workload, especially in the passing game. Furthermore, McLaughlin could see an even larger role if Javonte Williams or Samaje Perine don’t make the final roster, potentially giving him top-24 upside despite having an ADP outside the top 50 running backs.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
