Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the third part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC South.
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ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC South
ADP Values
Nico Collins (HOU): ADP 30.7 | WR15
The former Michigan star was a popular third-year breakout candidate last year and one of my favorite draft targets. Collins was a fantasy stud, ending the season as the WR9, averaging 14.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He had a higher fantasy points per game average than Puka Nacua (14.5), Mike Evans (14.3) and A.J. Brown (13.9). While fantasy players won’t get him in the double-digit rounds like in 2023, the former Michigan star is still a value at his current ADP.
Collins led the Texans in receptions (80), targets (109), receiving yards (1,297), and touchdowns (eight) last year. While he will have target competition, Collins is Houston’s clear-cut No. 1 receiver. Tank Dell is coming off a massive leg injury, while Stefon Diggs is on the wrong side of 30 and has had back-to-back years with late-season struggles. More importantly, Collins had a significantly higher yards per route run rate (3.37) than Dell (2.40) and Diggs (2.06) in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).
Anthony Richardson (IND): ADP 49.7 | QB6
Unfortunately, fantasy players only got a glimpse of Richardson’s upside as a rookie. The talented quarterback is an injury risk but offers league-winning and overall QB1 upside if he can stay healthy. Last year, Richardson was the QB11 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 18.2 fantasy points per contest. Yet, he left two games early with injuries. Richardson averaged 25.3 fantasy points, 211.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 48 rushing yards, and a touchdown in the two games he finished as a rookie.
Furthermore, he scored 17.7 fantasy points in Week 2 on only 10 passes and three rushing attempts before leaving with a concussion. The former Florida star has Lamar Jackson-like rushing upside. Richardson was on pace for 816 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns in 17 games as a rookie based on his two healthy performances. The Colts improved his receiving core and offensive line in the offseason. While Jonathan Taylor might limit his goal-line rushing production, Richardson could have a sophomore-year breakout season.
Bust Candidates
Stefon Diggs (HOU): ADP 37.7 | WR19
There are few players I will refuse to draft anywhere near their ADP this year, with Diggs at the top of that list. The veteran wide receiver’s draft cost is rising when it should be sinking. He has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. Diggs was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run, both lower averages than Noah Brown (per Fantasy Points Data).
I would consider giving the former superstar another chance in 2024 if he was still Josh Allen’s No. 1 wide receiver. Diggs saw a 27.5% target share, a 28% target per route run rate, and a 27.5% receiving yards market share last season with the Buffalo Bills (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, the veteran won’t see similar numbers this year, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell coming off impressive 2023 performances. Diggs should clearly be the third Texans receiver drafted and a late-sixth-round pick.
Evan Engram (JAX): ADP 71.3 | TE8
Engram surprised many when he finished as the TE2 last season, averaging 10.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran had 114 receptions on 143 targets for 963 receiving yards and four touchdowns, setting career highs in receptions, targets, and yards while posting the second-best touchdown mark of his career. Furthermore, he came three receptions short of breaking Zach Ertz‘s record for most catches by a tight end in a season (116 in 2018). However, Engram’s production drastically changed when Christian Kirk was injured.
The veteran was the TE12, averaging 7.5 targets and 7.5 fantasy points per game in the 11 contests with Kirk healthy. By comparison, Engram was the TE1, averaging 10.2 targets and 15.2 fantasy points per game in the six contests without the veteran wide receiver, scoring 18.7 or more in half the matchups. His 2023 production was largely because of target volume. However, Engram won’t see anywhere near the 143 targets he got last year after the Jaguars added Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr.
Sleepers to Target
Tyjae Spears (TEN): ADP 105.3 | RB35
Many had high hopes for Spears heading into the offseason. Unfortunately, his fantasy value took a significant hit when the Titans signed Tony Pollard in free agency. However, the coaching staff has raved about Spears all offseason, saying he and Pollard are interchangeable co-starters. Yet, the former Tulane star is one of my favorite mid-round running back draft picks this year. Spears was the RB35 as a rookie, averaging 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite seeing only 8.9 touches per contest.
While Pollard won’t completely disappear into the background, don’t be surprised if Spears becomes the lead running back in Tennessee. The second-year player had the fifth-best explosive run rate (7%) and the ninth-best yards after contact per rushing attempt average (2.92) among running backs with at least 100 attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, he averaged 10.1 fantasy points per game in the six contests with at least seven rushing attempts as a rookie. Spears could be a massive steal.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX): ADP 125.7 | QB17
Lawrence was a popular third-year breakout candidate heading into last season after the Jaguars had acquired Calvin Ridley. The former No. 1 overall pick was the QB7 in 2022, averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game. He had 4,113 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. Furthermore, the former Clemson star averaged 3.5 fantasy points per game on the ground that year. Unfortunately, Lawrence regressed, ending the 2023 season as the QB12, averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game with a 21-14 touchdown to interception ratio.
Yet, the former No. 1 overall pick was a few bad breaks away from having the breakout year many expected. Ridley led the NFL with 24 end zone targets. However, the veteran finished fifth in end zone touchdowns (seven) because of drops and poor footwork (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Lawrence struggled without Christian Kirk. He was the QB13 with the veteran receiver healthy. By comparison, Lawrence was the QB20 without Kirk on the field. He is one of my favorite post-hype sleepers.
- Busts & League Winners AFC: East | North | South | West
- Busts & League Winners NFC: East | North | South | West
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.