Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the second part of an eight-part series, I will identify two fantasy football ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC North.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC North
ADP Values
Derrick Henry (BAL): ADP 20.3 | RB9
Some fantasy players will have concerns about Henry for two reasons – his age and career workload. The veteran turned 30 in January and is one of the oldest running backs in the NFL. Meanwhile, he has over 2,000 career rushing attempts, including 303 or more in three of the past five years. However, Henry was the RB8 last season, averaging 13.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite splitting the backfield work with Tyjae Spears.
More importantly, he averaged only 1.11 yards before contact per rushing attempt behind a horrendous Tennessee Titans offensive line last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Thankfully, Henry won’t have to play behind that awful offensive line again. Meanwhile, the veteran finished second in rushing yards (1,167) and fifth among running backs in touchdowns (12). While some are worried about Lamar Jackson’s impact on his fantasy value, Henry won’t lose rushing touchdowns to him, as the superstar quarterback frequently isn’t used around the goal line.
George Pickens (PIT): ADP 58.3 | WR28
Pickens is one of my favorite wide receiver draft values this year because of his league-winning upside. The former Georgia star has flashed massive upside but has also struggled with consistency. Yet, he is a popular third-year breakout candidate after the Steelers traded away Diontae Johnson this offseason, making Pickens the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver in Pittsburgh. He was outstanding in the four games without Johnson last season, ranking as the WR13, averaging 14.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.
Furthermore, Pickens posted the eighth-highest fantasy points per route ran rate (0.49) among wide receivers with at least 110 routes (per Fantasy Points Data) during the four-week window with Johnson out of the lineup. The young receiver has never had a chance at breaking out because of the quarterback situation, seeing only a 68.9% catchable target rate (ranking 61st in the NFL) last season (per PlayerProfiler). Don’t be surprised if he is this year’s Nico Collins after the team significantly upgraded the quarterback position.
Bust Candidates
Zack Moss (CIN): ADP 80.3 | RB26
Some have high hopes for Moss after the Bengals signed him to replace Joe Mixon this offseason. The veteran running back averaged 22 touches and 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his five healthy contests for the Indianapolis Colts without Jonathan Taylor last season. However, he was a wildly inconsistent player during those five games. Moss averaged under four yards per rushing attempt and scored nine or fewer fantasy points in 60% of those contests.
Unfortunately, the veteran was even worse than those numbers suggest. His 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Moss has struggled to stay healthy in his career as the starter. Meanwhile, Chase Brown (ADP 121.3 | RB41) has gained ground on the starting role and received significant hype lately.
"If I could play fantasy football, I'd take him as my first running back…He's going to have a year. I guarantee it. Special talent, special player."
– Bengals OT Orlando Brown on RB Chase Brown via @espn pic.twitter.com/K3fVtxZ1zI
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) August 3, 2024
David Njoku (CLE): ADP 88.7 | TE10
Njoku had the best year of his career in 2023. He set career highs in several categories, including receptions (81), targets (123), receiving yards (862), touchdowns (six), and half-point PPR fantasy points per game (10). However, he was the TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Njoku was the TE1 in the five games with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per contest, scoring 13.4 or more in all but one.
More importantly, he had a significantly higher target per route run rate (29% vs. 17%), air-yards share (15.8% vs. 2.4%), yards per route run (2.48 vs. 1.23), and fantasy points per route run (0.49 vs. 0.23) with Flacco under center compared to Watson (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, Njoku won’t catch passes from Flacco in 2024 after the veteran joined the Indianapolis Colts. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival means there is one more receiver for Watson to target over the veteran tight end.
Sleepers to Target
Pat Freiermuth (PIT): ADP 136.3 | TE16
The 2023 season was one to forget for Freiermuth and fantasy players with him on their team. The third-year player was a popular mid-round tight end draft pick. Unfortunately, he missed five games and struggled when playing. Freiermuth saw his targets (36.1%) and receiving yards per game (43.9%) significantly drop from 2022 to last year. However, fantasy players should give him another shot after Pittsburgh swapped out Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky for Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in the offseason.
Furthermore, Arthur Smith taking over as the team’s offensive coordinator is excellent news for Freiermuth. The Atlanta Falcons tight ends averaged a 31.7% overall target share and a 29.3% red zone target share in 2023. With Diontae Johnson in Carolina, Freiermuth should be the No. 2 option in the passing game and see the volume needed for a breakout season in the final year of his rookie contract. He is my favorite tight end to draft outside the top nine guys.
Deshaun Watson (CLE): ADP 163.3 | QB23
While Watson’s time with the Browns has been a disaster for the team and fantasy players, the veteran quarterback was once one of the best players in the NFL. He averaged 20.7 or more fantasy points per game in each of his first four seasons before trade demands, off-the-field issues, and injuries limited Watson to only 12 games over the past three years. Yet, fantasy players in superflex leagues should make the former superstar one of their QB2 targets.
Watson averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game in the five contests he played at least half of the snaps last season. That average would have made him the QB13 on a points-per-game basis. More importantly, the veteran will have his best receiving core since joining the Browns after the team added Jerry Jeudy in the offseason. Don’t be surprised if Watson has a career year with the team having a limited running game until Nick Chubb is 100% healthy.
- Busts & League Winners AFC: East | North | South | West
- Busts & League Winners NFC: East | North | South | West
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
