Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the first part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC East.
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ADP Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC East
ADP Values
Breece Hall (NYJ): ADP 5.3 | RB2
Fantasy players struggled to trust Hall last year, with the coaching staff wanting to limit the superstar’s workload coming off a torn ACL. The Jets signed Dalvin Cook during the preseason, further throwing a wet blanket on his fantasy outlook. However, Hall was outstanding after coming off the snap count, totaling 26.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his first game as a full-time player.
Furthermore, the former Iowa State star was the RB2, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game from Week 5 through the end of last season. He was outstanding despite playing behind the sixth-worst run-blocking offensive line in the NFL (per PFF). New York significantly improved their offensive line this offseason, adding three new starters. After averaging 3.25 yards after contact per rushing attempt in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data), Hall will be even better this year and could finish as the overall RB1.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF): ADP 53.3 | TE5
I was a big fan of using the great or late tight end strategy in 2023, using an early pick on Travis Kelce, or waiting until the double-digit rounds to select one. However, fantasy players shouldn’t pass up Kincaid in the fifth round as the fifth tight end off the board this year. The Bills lost their top two pass catchers from last season’s squad, losing Gabe Davis in free agency and trading away Stefon Diggs.
Buffalo replaced them with Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Both wide receivers have had positive moments during training camp. Yet, Kincaid should take over as Josh Allen’s No. 1 target in the passing game. The former Utah star was the TE11 as a rookie, averaging 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he averaged 6.9 targets and 10.6 fantasy points per game in the seven regular and postseason games that Davis or Dawson Knox missed with an injury.
Bust Candidates
Josh Allen (BUF): ADP 18.3 | QB1
Allen was the QB1 in 2023, averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game. The superstar has finished as the QB1 in three of the past four seasons, with 2022 being the lone exception, ending the year as the QB2. While he has averaged 23 or more fantasy points per game in four consecutive seasons, Allen had Stefon Diggs at his disposal for every top-two finish of his career.
Many are concerned that the veteran won’t have the wide receiver core needed to put up QB1 numbers. Keon Coleman has had some positive moments during training camp but struggled earlier this offseason. Meanwhile, Curtis Samuel has been a fantasy afterthought most of his career. While Allen’s rushing production gives him a safe floor, the superstar shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes. More importantly, his 18.3 ADP is far too high.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): ADP 99.7 | QB12
Miami recently gave Tagovailoa a long-term extension, keeping him as the team’s quarterback for the foreseeable future. While he is a solid NFL player, Tagovailoa is on my do-not-draft list in 2024. The former Alabama star started last year on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff in the second half of the season.
The veteran averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Tagovailoa also struggled in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Despite having Tyreek Hill at his disposal, Tagovailoa (15.9) averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning (16). Fantasy players should pass on Tagovailoa and draft Jayden Daniels with a later ADP.
Sleepers to Target
Jaylen Wright (MIA): ADP 152.3 | RB44
Wright was a popular dynasty rookie draft pick after the Dolphins traded a 2025 third-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles to select the former Tennessee star. Unfortunately, he joined a backfield with two top-24 running backs in 2023, with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane finishing in the top four on a points-per-game basis in half-point PPR scoring. Yet, both running backs have struggled to stay healthy in their careers.
Therefore, Wright could be a league-winning pick in the 13th round of fantasy drafts. He had the second-best yards after contact per attempt average (4.35) and the sixth-most attempts of 10 or more yards among running backs, with at least 100 rushing attempts in the rookie class last year (per PFF). Miami had the top fantasy backfield in the NFL in 2023. If Mostert or Achane struggles to stay healthy, Wright could be a top-15 running back.
Javon Baker (NE): ADP 230.5 | WR83
I have been a massive fan of Baker’s all offseason, picking him in nearly every dynasty rookie draft and many of my best ball teams. We have seen NFL Draft Day 3 picks turn into fantasy stars as a rookie, including Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown. More importantly, the Patriots have arguably the most underwhelming wide receiver core in the NFL, giving the former UCF star a chance to be the No. 1 guy for whoever is playing quarterback this season.
Baker had the 11th-high PFF receiving grade in the draft class last year and posted a higher yards per route run average than Rome Odunze (3.21 vs. 2.93). Furthermore, he ranked in the 97th percentile in college target share. While Ja’Lynn Polk and DeMario Douglas are popular late-round sleepers, fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised if Baker turns into Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye’s go-to target, especially after making several impressive plays during training camp.
Bake brings it down ????@JBrissett12 | @Javondbaker1 pic.twitter.com/O33I7TSmSu
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) July 29, 2024
- Busts & League Winners AFC: East | North | South | West
- Busts & League Winners NFC: East | North | South | West
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
