For those that are fans of zero and hero running back builds this fantasy football draft season, middle-round running backs will be key. Let’s dive into a few middle-round running backs that could be fantasy football league winners in 2024.
For those that are fans of zero and hero running back builds this fantasy football draft season, middle-round running backs will be key. Let’s dive into a few middle-round running backs that could be fantasy football league winners in 2024.
A lot of articles have been written about the running back dead zone and the pitfalls that can be found between rounds 3-6, but a little further down in ADP, there’s an area of the draft board that has been certified gold when it comes to running backs over the last few years. In this article, we’ll take a look at where that area is and the best running backs to draft in that area of average draft position (ADP).
In 2020, 18 running backs were drafted between pick 73 and 150, which represented the RB30 to RB50 that year, of those RBs 38.9% finished more than five spots higher among their position than they were drafted with the RB12 and 17 in total points coming from this range. But it wasn’t a classic year for this theory as 62.5% in this range finished five or more spots behind their positional ADP.
But leap forward to 2021 and things started to shift dramatically.
In 2021, picks 73-150 served up 16 different running backs, the RB29 to RB44. A massive 56.2% of these backs outperformed their positional ADP by five spots or more, compared to only five who failed to be within five spots of where they were drafted.
In 2022, as wide receiver thirst kicked into full effect in drafts, the RB24 now appeared in this range, and altogether there were 26 different backs here, from RB24 to RB49. With this increase in numbers, there was a dip in hit rate, but 42.3% still finished 5 or more spots above their positional ADP. This includes nine of the first 15 drafted in this range.
Then in 2023, with even more backs in this range, 28 in total, RB23 to RB50, the hit rate stayed consistent with 42.8%, a slight increase from 2022’s 42.3%.
Again though, the top end of this was lucrative with six of the first eight outperforming their positional ADP by at least five spots.
If we reduce the sample size down to picks 73 through 110 we can see how after 2020, which admittedly was a bad year with 11%, this range has hit at 60%, 58%, and 56%. This is the area of drafts we have to be drafting running backs in, and these are the best options for 2024, where we get the RB18-33.
The Steelers remain in a state of semi-rebuild as they look to Arthur Smith to reignite an offense that was truly awful under former offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. The one shining part in 2023 was Jaylen Warren who has the second-highest explosive play rate among running backs along with having 74 targets in 2023. The only running backs with more were Breece Hall, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Now Warren finds himself playing with the two quarterbacks who led the league in checkdown rate when kept clean in 2023, with Russell Wilson leading the league (19.3%) and Justin Fields not far behind (13.0%).
James Conner has never been the most reliable running back from a health standpoint, but when he’s been on the field he’s been solid at worst and excellent at best. Conner has played 13 games in back-to-back years and is 29 years old, which isn’t a great age to be a running back in the NFL, but he started his career slowly with 32 rushing attempts in his rookie season and then only one year above 170 attempts in his first four. Without the wear and tear associated with a heavy workload perhaps Conner can keep his career going longer than many at the position have. In 2023, Conner finished as a top twelve running back in five of his games and finished inside the top 36 running backs in four more. Conner also exploded back to life when Kyler Murray retook the field, with Conner averaging 18 PPR points in games with Murray compared to 11 in those without.
All the early reports out of Commanders camp suggest that Brian Robinson Jr. looks to be forging a great relationship with quarterback Jayden Daniels and he’s the clear RB1 for this offense. This shouldn’t be a surprise given Austin Ekeler sat on the free agent market longer than many running backs, and was only guaranteed $1.2m for this year. He is also coming off an awful year by his standards where PFF graded him at a career-low 60.2, a massive drop from his career average of 79.6. Ekeler also saw his missed tackles forced per game drop from 4.2 in 2022 to 2.9 in 2023, along with setting a career-low in yards after contact per attempt, a number that has fallen for Ekeler for six straight seasons. Robinson hasn’t been anything spectacular for the Commanders but he’s been steady and is the right profile for early down work, which can extend to a bigger role under Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator as he likes to run no-huddle offenses that keep the same personnel on the field.
This was the pass from Jayden Daniels to Brian Robinson Jr. reporters were talking about early today
