Oh, tight end. The bane of my existence. If you’ve read my work here previously, you know I’m a proponent of eliminating tight end as a designated starting spot in lineups. The position tends to be pretty shallow, and a good amount of the top tight ends play out of the slot as much, if not more, than as a true in-line tight end.
The 2023 season was a bizarre one at tight end. Overall, it was a decent year for the position, and a couple of exciting young names emerged to give the position a bit more depth. Conversely, it was a terrible year for anyone who invested early draft capital in Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.
Could there be a changing of the guard at tight end in 2024? Here’s a breakdown of the state of the tight end position, as well as my approach in my 2024 fantasy football drafts.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
2024 Fantasy Football Tight End Strategy
Has the King Been Dethroned?
It was a bizarre year for Travis Kelce, the consensus TE1 for at least the last five years. His popularity skyrocketed thanks to his love affair with Taylor Swift. He and his Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl. But from a fantasy perspective, Kelce was a disaster. The future Hall of Famer put up his worst season since 2015 after going sixth overall in drafts last summer. Sure, he finished as the TE3, but there’s no way you can justify him as a first-round pick.
As someone who had no interest in taking Kelce within the first two rounds of drafts, even I was surprised by just how ineffective he was at times. And the market hasn’t forgotten either. Kelce is the TE2 in our expert consensus rankings (ECR) and is now going in the third round, a far more appropriate draft price.
But even at that price, I’m not interested. I do think Kansas City’s passing game will get back to its previously elite level after adding Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy in the offseason. Kelce’s struggles last year stemmed from a pretty lousy receiving depth chart aside from Rashee Rice. The trio of Rice, Brown and Worthy are more formidable, which should free up Kelce more over the middle of the field. If Worthy plays the Tyreek Hill role in this offense the Chiefs could be cheap in drafts.
But Kelce is 34 years old, and it’s fair to say he’s nearing the end of his prime. I don’t advise taking tight ends in the first four rounds, so from a roster construction standpoint, I most likely won’t get any Kelce.
The same goes for Sam LaPorta, who may be the new king at the position. Ranked as the TE1, it’s hard not to fall in love with LaPorta, especially at a position where there hasn’t been much new blood to celebrate. My problem with LaPorta is his draft price. As an early third-round pick, you’re drafting LaPorta with a slim margin for error. If he doesn’t deliver as the TE1 this season, you probably will have an uphill climb to the postseason.
That being said, if you’re dead set on taking a tight end early, LaPorta would be my top choice over Kelce.
Could the Second Tier Be the Tier to Target?
To me, LaPorta and Kelce are in a tier of their own at tight end (and maybe LaPorta is in his own). After them, there are four guys I’m pretty comfortable taking if I decide to draft my tight end a little earlier.
Trey McBride is a really exciting talent coming off a Year 2 breakthrough. He has the potential to finish as a top-three tight end and his price at the back end of round four is baking in that upside. I probably won’t stomach the round four price, but if he slips a little further, I’d consider him.
Mark Andrews was on his way to another strong season before injuries cut his 2023 season short. Health and age are a concern, but I could see Andrews falling under the radar in drafts.
Dalton Kincaid was the other rookie tight end who showed signs of becoming a future star at the position. He didn’t see much action for the first seven weeks of the year but was forced into action when Dawson Knox got hurt. From there, he took pretty good advantage of his opportunities. With the Bills stripping their wide receiver room, we could see Buffalo deploy more 12 personnel to get both Kincaid and Knox on the field at the same time. The increased usage isn’t a given, and I don’t love the opportunity cost of taking Kincaid in the fifth round. But the potential is certainly there.
Last but certainly not least is George Kittle, who is my favorite tight end to take in this tier. He brings the perfect blend of proven production with a more reasonable draft price, as he’s going around the end of the fifth or beginning of the sixth round. I’d much rather have Kittle than hope and pray for Kyle Pitts to finally figure it out.
Then Tight End Gets Ugly
Much like eating at Subway, I know what I’m getting myself into when I decide to wait for a tight end. My conflict every year is the same: I struggle to justify the opportunity cost of taking one of the better tight ends in the middle rounds over starting receivers or running backs.
This year I face the same conundrum, but I’m admittedly more inclined to take someone in the aforementioned second tier than wait it out. That’ll admittedly come down to roster construction. But if I do decide to wait, here’s how I’m playing it.
I’m generally staying away from guys like Evan Engram and Jake Ferguson. They’re both fine, and they tend to get decent target shares. But I struggle with their ADPs, as a sixth- or seventh-round pick is a steep price to pay for two guys who are closer to replacement-level players than the guys ranked ahead of them.
I’m also not all that interested in David Njoku at TE10, who had great numbers with Joe Flacco to close out the year. Too bad Deshaun Watson is back, as the two did not establish much of a connection when Watson was under center.
LaPorta’s incredible rookie year will convince people Brock Bowers can do it, too. And I’m not saying he can’t. I’m just not going to bet on it happening. That being said, if there’s a position where you can shoot for the moon on upside with relatively low risk, it’s definitely at tight end. If Bowers struggles, you can drop him and play waiver roulette.
Things don’t get much better from here, as the next wave of tight ends features a slew of confounding veterans. Dallas Goedert never seems to live up to the hype. Pat Freiermuth didn’t exactly take off after an encouraging rookie year that might’ve been a byproduct of Ben Roethlisberger’s check-down tendencies. Dalton Schultz was a TE1 last year but could fall by the wayside in a Houston offense with three legit wide receivers. And T.J. Hockenson is coming off a torn ACL and MCL suffered late last season. His availability for the start of the season is doubtful, at best, which makes him a stay away.
All of this is to illustrate that if I decide to wait on tight end I’m really waiting. The question is, for whom?
Two deep tight end targets stand out. The first is Luke Musgrave, another young tight end with some intriguing fantasy appeal. The Packers have a ton of weapons that could muddle the target share. But if not for a lacerated kidney that cost him six games, Musgrave could be a more popular name in drafts.
Lastly, my break in case of emergency tight end is Tyler Conklin from the Jets. We’ve seen Aaron Rodgers turn ordinary tight ends into fantasy-relevant assets. And I do think Conklin will have a significant role in a Jets passing game that isn’t flush with receiving talent.
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