Fantasy Football Draft Advice: How to Approach Quarterback (2024)

Suffice it to say, 2023 was not a great year for quarterbacks.

Sure, some players were awesome for fantasy, namely Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. But the top two fantasy quarterbacks from last season were buoyed by 15 rushing touchdowns apiece, something that doesn’t feel entirely sustainable.

Otherwise, the position was a bit of a dumpster fire aside from a few bright spots. If you invested early in Patrick Mahomes, you were likely burnt by his QB8 finish. Ascending players like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence didn’t take the leaps many were hoping for due to injury and/or disappointing play. And unless you scored someone like C.J. Stroud, Jared Goff or Brock Purdy, waiting to take a QB probably didn’t work out.

Maybe I buried the lead when discussing just how bad of a year it was for quarterbacks. Just consider this: Baker Mayfield and Sam Howell finished the year as QB10 and QB12, respectively.

The bigger question is whether the 2023 season represented the worst-case scenario for the position at large. Will NFL offenses have a counter-punch to opposing defenses playing more zone defense, daring offenses to stage long scoring drives? Will the infusion of another exciting draft class add more talent to the pool?

Do we splurge on the elites? Take a stab at the middle class? Or play the waiting game again? Let’s take a 10,000-foot view of the quarterback landscape, and discuss how to attack the position in your upcoming drafts.

Fantasy Football Draft Advice & Strategy: Quarterbacks

Are the “Elites” Worth the Price?

There are four elite quarterbacks in my view entering the 2024 fantasy season, and here’s how I rank them along with their current ADPs:

Josh Allen – 21st overall
Lamar Jackson – 41st overall
Patrick Mahomes – 37th overall
Jalen Hurts – 30th overall

One thing you have to ask yourself going into any draft is if you’re willing to spend a pick in the first four rounds on a QB. That’s most likely what you’ll have to pay to get any of these guys. And while they all offer plenty of fantasy appeal, there are warts you have to take into consideration, especially at such a high pick.

Allen feels the safest of the bunch, but he’s entering a season with a rebuilt receiving core and an offense that could lean more on the running game in 2024, partially because of Allen’s tendency to go haywire. Buffalo’s offense will still be good, but the unit doesn’t have the same ceiling as it did with Stefon Diggs lined up outside. And I find it hard to believe Allen will repeat his 15 rushing touchdown season.

Hurts is the quarterback I’m least interested in, especially as a third-round pick. Sure, the end-of-season stats look great, and having Hurts last year certainly didn’t hurt you most weeks. But Hurts was downright bad as a passer last season, and his fantasy managers were likely bailed out by the “tush push,” which we could see less of in 2024 as injuries could’ve played a role in Hurts’ late-season struggles. Plus, Saquon Barkley is now in town, giving the Eagles a legitimate between-the-tackles runner.

Mahomes and Jackson are the two guys I’d be willing to take a shot on, but they’d both probably have to fall to me later than where they’re currently going. The Chiefs worked to improve Mahomes’ receiving corps, and I think the offense will be more effective this year, especially if Xavier Worthy delivers the downfield threat this offense sorely lacked a year ago. But what if Travis Kelce really is regressing? What if new pieces like Worthy and Hollywood Brown (who’s already injured) don’t add anything to the group? There are just enough concerns that have me squeamish about investing in Mahomes that early.

I’m a huge Lamar Jackson fan and of all these players mentioned, he’s the one I’d most likely take the shot on. But again, there are concerns. The Ravens are essentially implementing a brand-new offensive line with several starters from last year’s team gone. Derrick Henry is in town and will surely get his fair share of goal-line carries. Plus, the Ravens still don’t have an exciting receiving corps outside of Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. If the offensive line struggles, this offense could take a hit.

Ultimately, I understand if anyone wants to just get a bankable starter. But when considering the opportunity cost of passing up players at more scarce positions, none of these quarterbacks offer enough confidence to invest such high draft capital in them.

Who Emerges from the Crowded Middle Class?

I bet if you asked 10 people to tell you how they rank the QB5-to-QB12, you’d get 10 different answers. The point is there are plenty of options outside of the elite quarterbacks. But good luck figuring out which one of them will be the best of the bunch.

I understand the appealing upside of Anthony Richardson, who is the consensus QB5 among our experts. But if you ask me, his fifth-round draft price is giving you no room for error. Sure, in the best-case scenario, Richardson is a fantasy league winner. But if you’re spending the 52nd pick on him (his current ADP), you’re essentially hitching your wagon to that. I’m not here to tell you Richardson can’t join the elite QB wave this time next year. But I’ll admit I’m not one to take that leap of faith on a guy who played four games as a rookie and did a poor job of protecting himself.

C.J. Stroud will be a darling both in fantasy and NFL circles, as the Texans are everyone’s hyped-up team for 2024. The hype is valid, Stroud was good as a rookie and he now has Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in his offense. Stroud’s floor is pretty high, but with only 39 rushing attempts his fantasy ceiling may be rather limited. Stroud feels like the definition of a great NFL QB in the making who isn’t quite as great from a fantasy-scoring perspective. I’d love to get him on my teams, but struggle to justify it in the fifth round.

Then there’s Dak Prescott, who might be the opposite of Stroud. Prescott puts up numbers and finished as the QB3 last season. But he’s definitely a better fantasy quarterback than a real-life quarterback, as evidenced by his postseason collapses. Prescott is completely fine to me as my starting QB. But he’s unexciting and being ranked around guys like Stroud and Richardson, which might explain why his ADP is pick 75.

Kyler Murray is a complete wild card. Ranked as the QB7 according to our Expert Consensus Rankings, Murray will be a year fully removed from his ACL injury and will have perhaps the best set of weapons at his disposal of his career. He’s shown he has an elite ceiling, as he finished as QB2 in 2020. As a sixth-round pick, Murray is an intriguing high-risk, high-reward proposition. It likely comes down to whether you believe in him as a passer.

Joe Burrow is my primary target in this range. I’m willing to toss his 2023 season, one that was riddled with injuries. And while Burrow doesn’t offer much from a rushing perspective, we know 4,500 yards and 30+ touchdowns are on the table with a full year of health. Depending on how my first four picks shake out, I’d consider Burrow in the fifth round of drafts, but would prefer if he slipped a round.

Then there’s Jordan Love, who’s going around the sixth round. Love’s first season as a starter was a tale of two halves. Over his first nine starts, Love averaged 223.2 passing yards per game, with 14 TD passes, 10 interceptions, a 58.7% completion rate and an average of 6.7 yards per attempt. Over his last eight starts of the 2023 regular season, Love averaged 268.8 passing yards per game, with 18 TD passes, one interception, a 70.3% completion percentage and 7.7 yards per attempt. Of course, we don’t know which version of Love we’ll see over the length of the 2024 campaign, and Green Bay’s lack of a true alpha receiver could temper expectations for some. However, I’m willing to bet that Love is more like the QB who finished the 2023 year than the one who started it. If I pass on Burrow, Love is the guy I’m going for in the sixth or seventh round.

So, what if I want to tempt fate and wait for my QB again?

I’ll say this, there are intriguing options for those willing to wait. Brock Purdy just finished as the QB6, and if you’re high on the other pieces in San Francisco then you could be a lot worse off drafting the guy who’s in charge of feeding them the ball.

Tua Tagovailoa has as high of a weekly ceiling as anyone in the league. And when the Dolphins are humming, they are humming. He’s got the all-star pass-catching duo and a great coach. But Tua was also the QB20 from Week 9 on, and his performance in late-season games outside of Miami makes him a questionable starter when you need him most. I don’t mind going into my season with a Tagovailoa and Jared Goff starting QB combo, as both are solid quarterbacks who are a bit more matchup-dependent than most of the guys ranked ahead of them.

Then, there’s the new hope, rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. Williams is going in the ninth round and has a pretty solid situation around him for a rookie QB. While I have questions about Chicago’s offensive line and play caller, you can’t argue with a receiver group featuring D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet.

Daniels isn’t walking into a terrible situation either, with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson to work with, as well as Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. And I suspect Daniels’ rushing upside along with Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme could push him higher up draft boards.

That all being said, hitching my team’s wagon to a rookie QB, even in the ninth round, is awfully risky business.

Of all the guys listed above, I feel the best about taking Purdy. He’s got the weapons, the coaching and the proven ability to lead a strong fantasy offense.

Can Lower-Ranked Veterans Bounce Back?

The depth at quarterback will likely come down to whether some established veterans can bounce back from bad seasons. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert are young quarterbacks coming off disappointing years. I’m not sure Lawrence will ever reach his potential, while Herbert could present some value later in drafts as an emergency option, so long as he heals from plantar fascia. The belief that the Chargers will be a “run-heavy” team is overblown.

There are also a slew of older veterans who have been highly fantasy-relevant in the past but might be past their prime. Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers are coming off Achilles injuries, but have strong situations around them to crack QB1 territory. Matthew Stafford is aging but still has Sean McVay and a pair of elite pass-catchers. Deshaun Watson has all the upside in the world but is simply too much of an unknown to even invest a late-round pick in. Derek Carr is pedestrian. I have a hard time believing Baker Mayfield will repeat his 2023 campaign. And I have no interest in betting on bounce-back campaigns from Geno Smith and Daniel Jones.

The one wild card is Will Levis, and he could be a solid gamble as a late QB2, or as a stash. The Titans put a ton of resources into the weapons around Levis, and he’ll be coached by an offensive mind in Brian Callahan. Levis’ small sample size as a rookie isn’t enough to make any concrete conclusions, but he’s someone to watch as a late-round pick or waiver addition.

My Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for Quarterbacks

I’ll never absolutely rule out any strategy or player. But heading into the 2024 season, my plan will be to pass on the top four passers at their current prices and target the middle class at QB, with my primary targets being Burrow, Love and Purdy. If I miss out on all of those guys, I will take a shot on Herbert (presuming good health), or Aaron Rodgers, who I’m not sure is finished quite yet and has a good group of pass catchers to work with.

Articles Fantasy Draft Advice NFL Josh Allen Jalen Hurts Patrick Mahomes Joe Burrow Justin Herbert Justin Fields Trevor Lawrence C.J. Stroud Jared Goff Brock Purdy Baker Mayfield Sam Howell Lamar Jackson Stefon Diggs Saquon Barkley Xavier Worthy Travis Kelce Hollywood Brown Derrick Henry Zay Flowers Mark Andrews Anthony Richardson Joe Mixon Dak Prescott Kyler Murray Jordan Love Tua Tagovailoa Jayden Daniels Caleb Williams D.J. Moore Keenan Allen Rome Odunze Cole Kmet Terry McLaurin Jahan Dotson Brian Robinson Austin Ekeler Kirk Cousins Aaron Rodgers Matthew Stafford Deshaun Watson Derek Carr Geno Smith Daniel Jones Will Levis