Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Derrick Henry, Chris Olave, Kyren Williams

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into some of Derek Brown’s favorite early-round fantasy football draft picks to target.

2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR): Williams was a revelation in 2023 as he quickly kicked Cam Akers to the curb, taking over the starting job in Week 2. Williams was the RB2 in fantasy points per game, ranking fourth in red zone touches, first in snap share, and fourth in opportunity share. Among 68 qualifying backs, he ranked 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Despite his smaller frame, Sean McVay had no issues leaning on Williams as his bellcow. In Weeks 2-17, he averaged 22.3 touches and 117.8 total yards playing at least 72% of the snaps in ten of 11 games played. The only knock on Williams’ usage last season was his pass-game role. Despite entering the NFL as a ballyhooed passing down back, Williams only ranked 18th in target share and 58th in yards per route run (among 60 qualifying backs). Even with the addition of Blake Corum to the roster, this should remain Williams’ backfield. He should remain a strong RB1 in 2024.

Chris Olave (WR – NO): Did Olave match last year’s hype with his production? No. Did he woefully fail, and we should be worried about him in 2024? NOPE. Olave displayed growth with new career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game (14.5, WR19). Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, Olave ranked 24th in YPRR and 16th in FD/RR. Olave had to deal with the ups and downs of Derek Carr last year, which smoothed out toward the end of the season with the Saints changing up the complexion of the passing offense, which should continue in 2024. Carr last year was tied to two outcomes. It was either wind up and chuck it deep or check it down, as Carr ranked eighth in deep attempts while also having the sixth-highest check-down rate. In Weeks 1-12, New Orleans had the fifth-highest aDOT while ranking 14th in catchable target rate with the 16th-highest off-target rate. In Weeks 13-18, the Saints changed it up as their aDOT was the 11th-lowest, and the offense ranked first in catchable target rate with the lowest off-target rate. With Klint Kubiak now the offensive coordinator, we should expect this lower aDOT model to continue with more motion and YAC opportunities opening up for Olave. The needle is pointing up for 2024.

Derrick Henry (RB – BAL): Some players are simply built differently. Henry has and remains one of those guys. Last year, at age 29, he ranked first in rushing attempts and second in rushing yards while showing little drop-off in his efficiency metrics. Last season, among 68 qualifying backs, Henry ranked ninth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). While he will cross the dreaded age 30 threshold this year, it’s tough to project a drop-off for Henry and any reasons that he can’t continue to chug along as an RB1., especially when Henry has proven over the last two seasons that his pass game utility should increase despite his advancing age. Over the last two years, Henry has ranked 11th and 14th in TPRR and seventh and first in YPRR among backs. The big fellow isn’t slowing down. Continue to believe in the King in 2024 as the Ravens’ workhorse back.