In this article, we’ll look at the top three running backs in average draft position (ADP) and make the cases for how they finish as the RB1 overall in fantasy football.
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The Case for RB1 (Fantasy Football 2024)
It takes several key components to come together for a running back to be the RB1 overall. Typically these boil down to the following;
- A clear pathway to huge volume
- Excellent ability as both a rusher & pass catcher
- The goal line responsibilities
- Playing for a good offense.
Occasionally we’ll see players be able to mitigate not having one of these roles and still turn in a truly excellent season, but more often than not this is what we’re looking for from our top-tier running backs.
The case for Christian McCaffrey is as straightforward as it gets with him averaging 24.5 PPR points in 2023, 3.2 more than the next nearest player, a year after finishing as the RB2 with 21.2 points. Ever since McCaffrey was traded to San Francisco he’s been as good as it gets for fantasy football, averaging 4.5 receptions and 16.5 rush attempts per game. The combination of McCaffrey’s elite talent, combined with Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheming and a plethora of skill position players that also attract attention consistently combines to make McCaffrey’s life easier and give him an exceptional ceiling on a week-to-week basis. Out of the 26 games McCaffrey has played for San Francisco, only seven have resulted in PPR performances less than 20 points. McCaffrey also led all players with 65 red zone rush attempts and led all running backs in red zone targets with 18.
The role, the ability, and the offense aren’t in question whatsoever, but there are holes that we could poke in McCaffrey’s chances to repeat as RB1 overall. Assuming that something will happen again simply because it happened the year before is a foolish endeavor. The Niners could take a backward step if Trent Williams, their star left tackle, doesn’t agree to a new contract. If Brandon Aiyuk were to be traded perhaps the downfield passing game wouldn’t be respected as much anymore and defenses would key in on things nearer the line of scrimmage making McCaffrey’s life harder. Lastly, the one nobody wants to even dream of, perhaps McCaffrey at age 28 starts to find the wear and tear of the position holding him back. Since McCaffrey left Carolina he’s been remarkably healthy, averaging 78% of snaps after his debut game. Very few running backs manage to stay healthy for so long and while McCaffrey is an elite athlete, an injury becomes more and more likely at a certain point. McCaffrey is already dealing with a calf injury that will cause him to miss a couple of weeks of training camps, and throughout his career he’s had lower-body muscle injuries linger, so this certainly doesn’t bode well.
There aren’t many prospects who are hyped upon arrival into the NFL in the way that Bijan Robinson was in 2023. Robinson had rushed for 2,702 rushing yards over his last two years in college, which produced 29 rushing touchdowns and an average yards per carry of 5.95 along with earning 60 targets that translated to 607 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns. Unfortunately for Robinson, the top-tier skills and draft capital invested couldn’t stop Arthur Smith from being Arthur Smith. The Falcons were 11th in plays per game in 2023, but it counted for very little as the offense failed to be efficient, scoring on just 31.8% of drives, the eighth lowest in the league.
Robinson was held to only a 52.1% opportunity share, which ranked 27th among running backs. The second-year back will need to eat into Tyler Allgeier‘s 12.2 touches per game to bolster his own 15.9. In 2023, 12 of the top 16 PPR RBs averaged at least 17.0 touches per game. Robinson saw only 23 red zone carries in 2023, which ranked 36th among running backs. Fewer than Kenneth Gainwell, Justice Hill, and most importantly, Tyler Allgeier’s 35.
For those keeping count so far, you’ll note Robinson didn’t play on a good offense, didn’t have the goal line role, didn’t have a three-down role, but did work well in both the receiving game and the rushing game when given the opportunity. All of this begs the question, how can Robinson be THE RB1 in 2024?
Early indications are that the new Falcons coaching staff, led by Raheem Morris, understand what they have in Robinson and intend to feed him adequately. There has been a steady feed of Robinson hype out of Falcons press conferences and it would make sense, after all, this was a player drafted inside the top 10.
The Falcons offense as a whole will be able to take a step forward with Kirk Cousins being the fourth most accurate quarterback over the last ten years. Improved efficiency will benefit the offense in all areas of the game. There is some level of projection with Robinson, but nothing has changed about him since he entered the league as the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley, all that is happened is he played with a bad quarterback and a head coach out of his depth.
Despite Aaron Rodgers‘ best efforts to bring in Dalvin Cook and have him be an integral part of the Jets offense, Breece Hall is simply too good to be put into a box.
Hall recovered well from a clean ACL tear and was steadily ramped up in 2023, averaging 42% of snaps in Weeks 1-5, before playing 64% for the rest of the way. Hall had only one more red zone rush attempt than Bijan Robinson’s 23, but this wasn’t a situation where he was being taken off the field in favor of someone else, instead, this was simply down to the ineptitude of an offense faltering under Zach Wilson. Outside of Hall’s 24 red zone touches, the Jets offense combined for four more rushes there, with Tyrod Taylor responsible for three of them. The Jets ranked fourth-bottom in percentage of drives to end in a score, and Hall was only able to turn his 24 red zone touches into two touchdowns.
In the receiving game, Hall ranked third among running backs in yards per route run (1.8), among RBs with 20 or more targets, finishing behind only Alvin Kamara in total receptions (74). By late in the NFL season, as the Jets’ dysfunction got worse and worse, Hall was the most reliable part of the offense forcing 63 missed tackles from Week 5 onwards and averaging 50.5 rushing yards per game, which isn’t massive but the Jets’ passing offense was only averaging 171 yards per game, so Hall was doing everything he could and finished the season as the PPR RB4.
The upside case for Hall being the RB1 is that he could potentially have adequate quarterback play for the first time in his career, along with the Jets pouring plenty of resources into the offensive line, something else that has hampered Jets running backs in recent years. Hall has the red zone role, has the dominant workload, and potentially could play on a good offense. The Jets have done everything they can to convince people they’re gearing up for a Super Bowl run, and if they’re able to follow through on that, Hall is likely to be a significant part of that push.
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