Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into some of Derek Brown’s favorite early-round fantasy football draft picks to target.

2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ): Despite recuperating from an extensive knee injury, it didn’t derail Hall in his second season. He finished the season as the RB6 in fantasy points per game with 299 touches and 1,585 total yards. Hall was 12th in opportunity share and second in weighted opportunities, and in Weeks 5-18, he averaged 20.2 touches and 102.5 total yards. A huge part of his value last season came from his pass game usage, as he led all running backs in targets, receiving yards, and receptions. While some of this was part of the fallout of Zach Wilson at the helm, Hall should remain a focal point for the passing attack in 2024. He was a baller as a receiver last season, ranking third in yards per route run and fourth in expected fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Hall is a top-five fantasy running back in all formats.

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): The Arthur Smith experiment capsized what could have been an enormous rookie season for Robinson. He ranked ninth in snap share, third in targets, sixth in receptions, and fourth in receiving yards among running backs, but he finished as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. Robinson was the RB12 in expected fantasy points per game, but his opportunity share ranked 31st, and he was also 32nd in red zone touches with Smith’s insistence on utilizing Tyler Allgeier. If Robinson receives the bulk of the high-leverage touches under the new Falcons regime, he should crush in 2024. Last year, he ranked 23rd in explosive run rate, 17th in yards after contact per attempt, and 25th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Robinson is a locked-in RB1 for 2024.

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): Despite dealing with injuries and bad quarterback play for part of the season, Jefferson finished as the WR5 in fantasy points per game. If you exclude Week 14, in which he played only 18% of the snaps, he was the WR4 in fantasy points per game. Even after Week 14, when he was suffering through the quarterback roulette wheel, Jefferson still churned out 22.1 fantasy points per game while drawing a 30.1% target share, manufacturing 3.03 YPRR, and blazing 0.134 FD/RR (ninth-best, per Fantasy Points Data). Jefferson is quarterback-proof, so it doesn’t matter to me whether Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy is under center this season. Jefferson has proven he can still be a top-five fantasy wideout with putrid passers. Jefferson could still have WR1 overall upside if Darnold and McCarthy outperform expectations.