Has the pendulum swung too far when it comes to how we view running backs in fantasy football?
Back in my day (the mid-2000s), when I first started playing fantasy football, running backs were coveted. The first round mainly consisted of tailbacks with a couple of the game’s elite pass catchers sprinkled in the mix.
Fast forward roughly two decades later, and there are more strategies for how to handle the running-back position than ever before: Zero RB, Hero RB, Gyro RB. There is more than one way to skin a cat when creating your fantasy roster, and no position embodies that more than running back.
We’ve been forced to adapt to the times, as running-back committees and frequent aerial attacks are now all the rage. The lack of true featured running backs is a significant reason why only six tailbacks make up the first 12 picks in our FantasyPros Consensus ADP right now.
That being said, I do think the market has gone a little too far with its disdain for taking running backs early. Yes, I realize they’re all injury prone. Yes, I realize there are very few backfields with one true bell cow. Yes, I realize that it’s easier to find a starting tailback later on via the waivers than it is a starting receiver.
Has the pendulum swung too far when it comes to how we view running backs in fantasy football?
Back in my day (the mid-2000s), when I first started playing fantasy football, running backs were coveted. The first round mainly consisted of tailbacks with a couple of the game’s elite pass catchers sprinkled in the mix.
Fast forward roughly two decades later, and there are more strategies for how to handle the running-back position than ever before: Zero RB, Hero RB, Gyro RB. There is more than one way to skin a cat when creating your fantasy roster, and no position embodies that more than running back.
We’ve been forced to adapt to the times, as running-back committees and frequent aerial attacks are now all the rage. The lack of true featured running backs is a significant reason why only six tailbacks make up the first 12 picks in our FantasyPros Consensus ADP right now.
That being said, I do think the market has gone a little too far with its disdain for taking running backs early. Yes, I realize they’re all injury prone. Yes, I realize there are very few backfields with one true bell cow. Yes, I realize that it’s easier to find a starting tailback later on via the waivers than it is a starting receiver.
But running back is still a valuable – perhaps still the most valuable – position. And neglecting it in your drafts with a “I’ll figure it out,” mentality isn’t my preferred path to a fantasy title.
Here’s how I’m handling the running back position heading into 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Running Back Strategy for 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts
So, you’re telling me I must take a tailback in the first round?
Absolutely not. I don’t operate in absolutes (even though I just used the word a sentence prior) or musts when it comes to fantasy football. I establish a plan and deviate as necessary. However, there are a handful of tailbacks I trust as first-round picks.
After that, Jonathan Taylor is the last tailback I’d take in the first round, and he’s likely someone you can get with any of the final few picks in Round 1. I’d personally take Taylor over receivers like Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua, but I would have to think harder when it comes to A.J. Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
So, with just five guys who merit first-round consideration, I totally get anyone who opts for a receiver in Round 1, especially if my top three tailbacks are off the board. That being said, I do think there are a handful of really good RB1 options who you can nab in Round 2.
Sorting through the other RB1 candidates
I’m confident you can find a quality RB1 outside of the first round should you opt for a receiver off the top. I definitely disagree, however, with the market on who those top candidates are, and how wide this next tier really is. Here are some quick thoughts on each of the next tailbacks in order of their ECR rank:
Jahmyr Gibbs is someone I’m avoiding at the moment. He was never part of the Round 1 conversation for me, as David Montgomery is still there to steal red-zone work. Gibbs’ hamstring injury has me fearing a similarly slow start to the season, something you just can’t afford with a first or second round pick.
Could Kyren Williams regress after a breakout second season? It’s certainly possible, as Williams’ film didn’t exactly mesh with his production. Blake Corum is now in town, and Williams did have durability concerns. I get the appeal, but he’s lower for me.
Derrick Henry theoretically could deliver a monstrous season in Baltimore. We just saw Gus Edwards, the poorest of poor man’s version of Henry, score 13 times last season. Henry is capable of that and then some. Then again, his age and tread on the tires should be a consideration, if not a concern. Baltimore’s offensive line could take a step back after losing several starters. I like Henry, but I’d be lying if I said I’m drafting him with the utmost confidence.
Travis Etienne doesn’t get as much love for his RB3 finish a season ago. He feels like a pretty good bet to repeat his RB1 production given his pass catching role.
Isiah Pacheco is one of the trickier players to assess. His floor should be pretty high, but his ceiling is dependent on a ton of factors. Could RB16 be the best we see from Pacheco?
De’Von Achane is the biggest wild card of this bunch. His per touch efficiency can only go down, but his injury likelihood might not. If the Dolphins were smart, they’d only give Achane about 10, maybe 15 touches per game. But will that be enough to make him a true RB1? I’d prefer to let someone else take the gamble.
Rachaad White put up one of the more preposterous RB1 seasons in recent memory, boosted by 64 receptions for 549 yards. But White isn’t as impressive as a runner, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Last year’s output doesn’t feel sustainable.
Josh Jacobs is my favorite target among this group. The market is down on him after a tough year in Vegas, but I think a change of scenery to a vibrant Green Bay offense will be just what he needs to deliver another quality RB1 season.
Of these guys listed above, only two — Etienne and Jacobs — are guys I’d feel comfortable with as my RB1. That’s not to say I won’t draft the rest of them, but I admit I have more doubts.
Does the RB Dead Zone really exist this season?
The concept of the running back dead zone is a fascinating one to me, as it suggests that, in most years, the difference in scoring among the running backs taken between Rounds 3 and 6 is pretty flat. It’s a sound idea, but not one that can be guaranteed from season to season.
This year, I’m actually pretty excited about some of the tailbacks available in this range, and I think I know why the market won’t be as stoked. Lots of the guys in this group fall into the “forgotten veteran” category. While some players may have fatigue with guys like Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones, these are a few of my top targets as my RB2 or even RB3.
None of these veteran running backs looked like they had taken a step back last year. Mixon makes a lateral move to a Houston offense that should yield plenty of fantasy upside. Kamara will benefit from the departure of the archaic Pete Carmichael and the arrival of Klint Kubiak, who will run more pre-snap motion. Jones is my least favorite of the trio, but he was still highly effective when healthy last season. Jones should be the lead back in a Kevin O’Connell coached offense.
I’m also pretty comfortable taking James Cook as my RB2, as I suspect he’ll be the clear lead back in a Bills offense that could run the ball more often in 2024. Kenneth Walker is an amazing talent who will also benefit from a change in offensive scheme. Montgomery isn’t a bad option in a pinch, especially if Gibbs is sidelined. James Conner is likely to miss time at some point, but when he’s out there, he’s awfully effective.
This isn’t to say I love everyone in the dead zone. Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t someone I’m bullish on, but he could be a decent empty calories option catching passes in a New England offense that might be passing an awful lot. I’m not buying the D’Andre Swift hype in Chicago, and I have concerns about the Bears offensive line. Zamir White is going to get drafted because of opportunity, but he’s not all that good at playing football. The same goes for Najee Harris, who could be entering his final year in Pittsburgh.
Late-Round Dart Throws
Hitting on just one late-round RB can make the difference in your fantasy title hunt. Here are some players I’m taking a stab on outside the top 80 picks:
Jaylen Warren was the better back in Pittsburgh last year and offers pass-catching ability in an offense that’ll be led by Russell Wilson. Wilson almost refuses to take shots downfield. Harris will still be a goal-line pest, but Warren can hopefully get a greater share of the work between the 20s, if not more.
Tyjae Spears may not be a featured back, but he proved last year that he has the talent to lead a backfield. In a new offense with some intrigue and upside, an RB2 finish is in the cards if Tony Pollard flat out stinks.
I think the world is sleeping a bit on Javonte Williams after he didn’t live up to the billing a year after tearing his ACL. Now, Williams is a full year plus removed from the injury, and he’s still the lead back in a Denver offense that might not be as bad as people think.
Chase Brown was a spark plug for the Bengals as a rookie. I’m willing to stash him and see if he can do more in a potentially increased role. I get the Zack Moss hype, but he is a pedestrian back.
Chuba Hubbard won’t excite anyone, but he’s another decent player with a decent opportunity. While other drafters will take a stab on Jonathon Brooks returning to action early in the year and performing right away, I’ll happily snag Hubbard as my RB4, as he’s in line to start the first quarter of the season, if not more.
I know I waxed poetic about how Breece Hall is one of the few backs who can be a legitimate bell cow, but rookie Braelon Allen is showing out in training camp and in line to be Hall’s understudy. Stash Allen, and if Hall (who has an injury history) happens to go down, you could have a league winner.
