If you’re a die-hard fantasy football player you’ve likely heard discussion of ambiguous backfields: NFL teams where it is unclear heading into the season who will serve as the team’s lead rusher. Targeting an ambiguous backfield in fantasy comes with risk but also high potential reward, as picking the right member of an ambiguous backfield can give you a team’s RB1 at a huge discount.

Today, I’m going to talk about ambiguous receiver rooms. Although they’re not quite as common as ambiguous backfields, a very similar principle can be applied to NFL teams with multiple talented receivers in an unclear pecking order. Teams with ambiguous receiver rooms that are expected to have productive offenses are often a great source of value and upside for savvy fantasy managers.

Heading into the 2024 fantasy football draft season, three teams stand out as fitting this bill perfectly: Packers, Texans, Bears.

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Ambiguous Wide Receiver Situations

With talented young quarterbacks and lots of weapons, these teams are going to score plenty of receiving fantasy points… we’re just not sure who will do the scoring. But that ambiguity, and the risk that comes with it, has pushed down average draft positions (ADPs) for these players. For fantasy managers willing to embrace ambiguity, this is a huge opportunity. In this article, I will give my pick for the best (and worst) values at cost from each of these teams. Let’s get started!

Green Bay Packers

Jayden Reed vs. Christian Watson vs. Romeo Doubs vs. Dontayvion Wicks

Best Pick: Dontayvion Wicks (ADP: WR61)

Let me start by getting one thing clear: I’m not saying Dontayvion Wicks is the best fantasy football asset of this quartet of young receivers in a vacuum. Fantasy football isn’t played in a vacuum, so cost has to be taken into account. And Wicks has by far the cheapest cost of this group, being drafted outside the top 150 picks in half-PPR leagues, according to FantasyPros’ ADP Tool. This is not without good reason.

Wicks is likely to at least start the season fourth in the competition for snaps. He played just one of three snaps with Jordan Love in the Packers’ preseason debut on Saturday, while each of the other three WRs played at least two. If we want a bigger sample size, Wicks played on just six of Love’s 26 snaps in the Packers’ televised “Family Night” practice. That’s not good.

However, Wicks is worth betting on for one simple reason: He might be the most talented receiver on this roster. In 2023, his 77.0 Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade paced the group. He also posted a very impressive 1.94 yards per route run, good for 27th out of 96 qualified receivers.

Reed did edge him out overall at 1.95, but Wicks was more efficient both in the slot (2.50 to 2.07) and outside of the slot (1.63 to 1.59) than his fellow rookie. Even if Wicks starts the season fourth on the Packers’ depth chart there’s a chance he earns his way into a full-time role as the season goes on.

If not, he has a contingent upside if any of the other three get injured. He will probably see the field consistently at some point this season, and he should make the most of it when he does. Given his ADP is way down in the 13th round of a 12-team league, it’s worth drafting him and waiting for that to happen.

Worst Pick: Jayden Reed (ADP: WR34)

A second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Jayden Reed’s rookie season was undeniably impressive. He finished as the WR23 in half-PPR, combining clean route-running out of the slot with extreme efficiency on the ground (he scored two rushing touchdowns on just 11 attempts) to put up points even in a limited role.

However, that limited role is my big issue with Reed heading into 2024. He ran a whopping total of three routes in 2-WR sets as a rookie. As a result, he played greater than 70% of the Packers’ offense snaps just twice. This got worse later in the season (as Christian Watson and others got healthier). He played just 46% and 61% of snaps in the Packers’ two playoff games, recording a total of four catches for 35 yards.

Heading into 2024, Reed’s role does not appear to have changed. He appeared for just 16 of Love’s 26 snaps on Family Night, a 62% rate in line with his rookie numbers. Now, it may seem strange I’m harping so much on Reed’s usage when I just called Wicks, who has seen undeniably worse usage, my favorite pick.

But there are two key differences between these two sophomore receivers: The specifics of their limited role and cost. For fantasy purposes, Reed is the most expensive of this group by a margin, with a half-PPR ADP in round seven. Second, the reason for Reed’s limited snaps (not playing in 2-WR sets) is more likely to be permanent than Wicks’ issue (simply not starting in any set).

After all, there are logical reasons why Reed isn’t playing in 2-WR sets: He is undersized at just 5-foot-11 and 191 pounds and he posted a terrible 50.2 PFF run blocking grade as a rookie. These facts aren’t likely to change and spending a seventh-round pick on a part-time player is not the way to chase upside in an ambiguous situation.

The Others: Christian Watson (ADP: WR43) & Romeo Doubs (ADP: WR53)

Both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are solid picks at their respective ADPs. Neither has posted metrics as impressive as either Wicks or Reed, but they are, for now, the heavy favorites to simply be on the field most often.

Watson has struggled to stay healthy but still has a very impressive athletic profile, while Doubs will probably lead the team in routes and is by no means a bad receiver. It wouldn’t be at all shocking if one member of this duo led the Packers in targets, at which point they would be all but guaranteed to well outperform their ADP.

Houston Texans

Nico Collins vs. Stefon Diggs vs. Tank Dell

Best Pick: Nico Collins (ADP: WR14)

This is proof I’m not just going to pick the cheapest player from each team. Nico Collins is expensive, going off the board in the early third round, but he’s worth it. It really can’t be overstated how good he was in 2023. He finished the year with a 91.2 PFF receiving grade and 3.11 yards per route run.

To put into perspective how good those numbers are, new Texan Stefon Diggs, a four-time Pro Bowler, former All-Pro and one of the best receivers of the last few years, has never posted higher than 90.6 or 2.50 in those metrics. Collins’ dominance showed up on the fantasy scoreboard, too, as he finished as the WR9 overall and WR6 in points per game.

The arrival of Diggs throws a bit of a spanner in the works, as the veteran is sure to demand targets. But Collins did everything he did on “only” 109 regular-season targets in 2023. Meanwhile, Noah Brown and Robert Woods combined for 130 targets.

That’s before we consider the Texans are sure to be very pass-heavy in their second year with C.J. Stroud, where last year they had a pass rate 2.6% below expected. More importantly, Collins is simply the best receiver on this roster at this point, and he is going to get his first and foremost. While everyone else is worried about target competition, trust the talent and take the discount on an elite young receiver paired with an ascending star at quarterback.

Worst Pick: Tank Dell (ADP: WR29)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The problem with Tank Dell as a fantasy asset is that he is unlikely to play in 2-WR sets. Things aren’t as dire for Dell as they were for Reed, as he ran 65 routes in two- or one-receiver formations as a rookie. However, the arrival of Diggs is likely to push Dell off the field in those situations.

Not only is Dell tiny at 5-foot-8 and 165 pounds, but his rookie season was ended by an injury he suffered while run-blocking in the red zone. To be fair, it was a freak injury that likely could have occurred to anyone, but it will likely still be in the minds of Houston’s coaches when they decide who to send out in similar situations. In the very small sample of Week 1 preseason action, Dell did indeed only play in 3-WR sets.

Otherwise, there are only things to like about Dell’s profile. He finished his rookie season as the WR16 in points per game despite having severely limited snaps due to injury in two of his 11 games. He posted a very impressive 2.22 yards per route run, as well as a 14.4 average depth of target (aDOT) that ranked 16th among qualified WRs — he’s not just an underneath receiver. But it’s hard to get around the fact that there are only so many snaps and targets to go around.

Last year, the Texans had three or more WRs on the field for 73% of their passing plays, the 21st-highest rate in the league. That number is almost sure to go up with the arrival of Diggs, but they’d have to get into the top five to be above 80% — otherwise, Dell will likely be missing out on around 20% of available routes per game. And even when he is on the field, he’ll be competing with two absolute target hogs.

Dell does have injury-contingent upside, and it’s tempting to bet on the talent as I was willing to do with Wicks. But WR29 is just high enough of a price that it’s better to let someone else take that gamble in most drafts.

The Other: Stefon Diggs (ADP: WR20)

Stefon Diggs’ ADP is… fine. At times this offseason, I’ve seen him ranked close to or even above Collins, which would be far too rich. But a WR20 price for a player with Diggs’ track record playing with an elite QB in Stroud isn’t too bad. It is worth noting that Diggs’ production declined sharply down the stretch of last season. He averaged just 6.8 points per game in Weeks 10-17, down from 17.8 in the first nine weeks of the season.

There’s a chance he was simply checked out of Buffalo already, or one can blame the Bills’ new offensive system. But Diggs is also 30 years old, and it’s called the age cliff, not the age gentle decline, for a reason. Diggs has shown his talent and should see the targets to outperform his ADP, but don’t get too excited and reach for him.

Chicago Bears

DJ Moore vs. Keenan Allen vs. Rome Odunze

Best Pick: All Three (DJ Moore, ADP: WR21; Keenan Allen, ADP: WR30; Rome Odunze, ADP: WR42)

Hear me out. With the Texans and Packers, specific players are being undervalued and overvalued based on their combinations of projected roles and talent. But that’s not the case for this trio of Chicago receivers. Moore, a dominant receiver in his prime, deserves to be the first of the three off the board.

Allen is a route-running savant but also 32 years old with a lengthy injury history. He feels at home as a high-end WR3 in ADP. Odunze is likely to be the odd man out in 2-WR sets, at least to start the season, but has an immense ceiling worth betting on as your WR4.

Put that all together and this ambiguous wide receiver room is the one that compares the best to the classic theory of ambiguous running back rooms. It’s still not a perfect analogy, as all three can be on the field at once. It’s possible Caleb Williams simply spreads the ball around and all three provide solid but unspectacular finishes.

More likely, however, is that one player emerges as this offense’s true No. 1 WR, thanks to some combination of talent, gameplan and injury. And that one player will be a huge asset to fantasy teams.

With that in mind, my suggestion is to attack this wide receiver room in drafts, but don’t force it with any particular player. If Moore is the top player on your board in the early fourth round, great. If Allen falls past his ADP due to injury concerns, awesome. If your league is scared of rookies and Odunze slips, gobble him up. All three have very fair draft prices, and you simply can’t go wrong betting on talented players in what should be a highly productive offense.

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