In fantasy football, managers seek consistency within an inconsistent game. With QB being a premier fantasy position, selecting one in a season-long format is ample to the outlook of a lineup. Below are tiers of fantasy QBs based on consistency in fantasy point production from 2021-2023. All average draft positions (ADPs) listed refer to FanatsyPros’ consensus ADP rankings. The table below outlines the statistics used. For more info on standard deviation, click here.
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Quarterback Consistency Production From 2021 to 2023
Elite Tier
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) | ADP: 21.7
Josh Allen is the pinnacle of fantasy QB production. He leads all categories one would forage for QB consistency. Over the last three years, Allen has not missed a game in the regular season. In that stretch, he is first at QB in fantasy points scored, fantasy points per game and fantasy points per season. This comes on top of the lowest standard deviation concerning his season point totals. He will have a new receiving corps this year, but Allen is unquestionably the best player on the Buffalo offense. They will score as he scores.
Top Tier
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) | ADP: 32.3
Jalen Hurts does not miss for his fantasy managers. He trails Josh Allen by 1.53 fantasy points per game since 2021. Hurts has scored 38 rushing touchdowns in that stretch. That is 10 clear of Allen for tops at the position. The offensive line in Philly will return four of its five starters, but the viability of the “Tush Push” looms for those targeting Hurts in upcoming drafts. Managers should price in a small drop in production for the Eagles QB. It remains to be seen if he looks to score rushing touchdowns will remain automatic. He will also need time to throw to recreate his recent seasons.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) | ADP: 32.7
Patrick Mahomes continues to set the standard for QB play in the NFL. Since 2021, he has been second in fantasy points per season and third in fantasy points per game among QBs. It was a down year in 2023 for Mahomes, finishing as the QB7, but his increased standard deviation is partly due to the 416.9 points he posted in 2022 — the best fantasy year of any QB over the past three seasons.
Mahomes has every throw in the book, is mobile and remains paired with a coaching staff that has done nothing but terrorize the AFC since 2020. His pass-catchers include the illustrious Travis Kelce, newcomers Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy and breakout star Rashee Rice — likely to be available by mid-season. Don’t be surprised if Mahomes tops the list of fantasy QBs by year’s end in pursuit of a Super Bowl three-peat.
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) | ADP: 38.0
Lamar Jackson’s fantasy production by the game is definite. His availability is what poses a risk to fantasy lineups ahead of 2024. Over 40 games played from 2021-2023, the reigning MVP has scored 20.18 fantasy points per game — within one point of Patrick Mahomes. Jackson will share the backfield with Derrick Henry in Baltimore this year, but the team is returning only two starters on its offensive line. If Jackson sees more pressure, it will afford him more chances to run and balance out what he is losing through the air. If healthy, Lamar Jackson is a fantasy showpiece.
Mid-Tier
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) | ADP: 69.7
Dak Prescott is not a dual-threat QB, but his arm talent stabilizes his fantasy production. He comes in fifth at QB in fantasy points per game and fantasy points per season since 2021. Last season yielded an NFL-leading 36 touchdown throws from Prescott, and he was third in passing yardage, eclipsing the 4,500-yard mark. Prescott is friendly for managers investing in skilled players and unwilling to pay up for an elite QB. He has a low ADP and a high upside.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) | ADP: 60.3
Joe Burrow ranks sixth at QB in fantasy points scored over the past three seasons. Without an injury-riddled 2023, he would have likely cracked the top four. In only 10 games last year, Burrow threw 15 touchdowns and carried a completion percentage of 67%. Word out of camp is both he and Ja’Marr Chase are healthy. Burrow is a promising fantasy draft pick considering his price and ceiling in 2024.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) | ADP: 67.0
Kyler Murray is similar to Lamar Jackson — he scores fantasy points when he is on the field. Murray is fifth among QBs since 2021 in fantasy points per game at 19.62. He has played in 33 of the maximum 50 games in those seasons. A bounce-back year for Murray could mangle his current ADP in the sixth or seventh round.
Other Notable QBs
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU) | ADP: 46.0
C.J. Stroud stormed onto the fantasy scene in 2023. While his sample is small, his 275.0-point performance in his rookie year places him sixth in season average in this group. He is flush with targets in Houston with the likes of Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs.
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND) | ADP: 50.0
NFL fans got merely a taste of what Anthony Richardson was capable of last season. He scored seven touchdowns in just four games. He will play behind arguably the best offensive line in football and has a cannon to distribute the ball to Michael Pittman and rookie Adonai Mitchell.
Jordan Love (QB – GB) | ADP: 72.7
It is no secret Jordan Love sat behind Aaron Rodgers in 2021 and 2022. Last season, in his first year as a starter, Love finished as the QB5. He was second in touchdown throws to Dak Prescott and ranked fifth overall in attempts. Love has a quartet of young, talented receivers in Green Bay.
Quarterback Consistency Stats (2021 – 2023)
| Name | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Games Played | Total | Average/Season | Average/Game | Standard Dev/Season |
| Josh Allen | 402.6 | 395.5 | 392.6 | 50 | 1190.7 | 396.9 | 23.81 | 5.14 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 361.7 | 416.9 | 280.2 | 50 | 1058.8 | 352.9 | 21.18 | 68.77 |
| Jalen Hurts | 312.2 | 378 | 356.8 | 47 | 1047 | 349.0 | 22.28 | 33.59 |
| Justin Herbert | 380.8 | 280.3 | 233.7 | 47 | 894.8 | 298.3 | 19.04 | 75.18 |
| Dak Prescott | 320.6 | 198.6 | 342.8 | 45 | 862 | 287.3 | 19.16 | 77.64 |
| CJ Stroud | – | – | 275 | 15 | 275 | 275.0 | 18.33 | – |
| Joe Burrow | 314.2 | 350.7 | 147.2 | 42 | 812.1 | 270.7 | 19.34 | 108.50 |
| Lamar Jackson | 240 | 236.1 | 331.2 | 40 | 807.3 | 269.1 | 20.18 | 53.82 |
| Jared Goff | 194.5 | 283.8 | 289.1 | 48 | 767.4 | 255.8 | 15.99 | 53.15 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 199 | 295.6 | 262.5 | 50 | 757.1 | 252.4 | 15.14 | 49.09 |
| Kirk Cousins | 300.3 | 291.6 | 149.7 | 41 | 741.6 | 247.2 | 18.09 | 84.55 |
| Russell Wilson | 242.8 | 225.3 | 256.9 | 44 | 725 | 241.7 | 16.48 | 15.83 |
| Derek Carr | 257 | 219.1 | 241.1 | 49 | 717.2 | 239.1 | 14.64 | 19.03 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 180.9 | 230.9 | 270.4 | 43 | 682.2 | 227.4 | 15.87 | 44.85 |
| Matthew Stafford | 329.7 | 108.4 | 243.1 | 41 | 681.2 | 227.1 | 16.61 | 111.52 |
| Justin Fields | 126.8 | 296 | 230.2 | 40 | 653 | 217.7 | 16.33 | 85.29 |
| Kyler Murray | 300.5 | 200.5 | 146.4 | 33 | 647.4 | 215.8 | 19.62 | 78.18 |
| Geno Smith | 54.3 | 303.9 | 226.8 | 36 | 585 | 195.0 | 16.25 | 127.80 |
| Baker Mayfield | 180.9 | 121.4 | 274.1 | 43 | 576.4 | 192.1 | 13.40 | 76.97 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 332.8 | 239.2 | 0 | 34 | 572 | 190.7 | 16.82 | 171.63 |
| Daniel Jones | 167 | 289 | 57 | 33 | 513 | 171.0 | 15.55 | 116.05 |
| Jordan Love | 21.1 | 11.7 | 319.1 | 27 | 351.9 | 117.3 | 13.03 | 174.83 |
| Gardner Minshew | 33.7 | 36.8 | 196.2 | 25 | 266.7 | 88.9 | 10.67 | 92.94 |
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