The 2024 fantasy football season is nearly here. While some players’ fantasy value will change during the preseason, many leagues will have their draft over the next few weeks. There are two critical factors to winning your fantasy football league – finding sleepers and avoiding overpriced players.
Let’s look at six players that are overvalued fantasy football draft picks based on NFFC ADP from August 1 through August 13 for redraft leagues.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: NFFC Leagues
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
- NFFC ADP – 108.8 | QB13
Miami recently gave Tagovailoa a long-term extension, keeping him as the team’s quarterback for the foreseeable future. While he is a solid NFL player, Tagovailoa is on my do-not-draft list in 2024. The former Alabama star started last year on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff in the second half of the season.
The veteran averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Tagovailoa also struggled in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Despite having Tyreek Hill at his disposal, Tagovailoa (15.9) averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning. Fantasy players should pass on Tagovailoa and draft Jared Goff with a later ADP.
Rachaad White (RB – TB)
- NFFC ADP – 36.7 | RB12
White was the RB7, averaging 13.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year. However, he was an RB1 because of volume, not his talents. White was second in rushing attempts (272) but 14th in yards (990). He also ranked 89th in yards after contact per attempt, 84th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 76th in explosive run rate. Furthermore, his explosive run rate (2.2%) was lower than Latavius Murray’s, while his rushing yards after contact per attempt (2.24) was worse than Kevin Harris’ (per Fantasy Points Data).
More importantly, White was a top-10 running back because of his role in the passing game. He had the seventh-most targets (70), fourth-most receptions (64), and third-most receiving yards (549) among running backs last season. Over 44% of his fantasy points scored in 2023 came in the passing game. However, that likely won’t happen again after the Buccaneers added Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving during the NFL Draft. While James Cook and Josh Jacobs have a slightly lower ADP than White, I’ll draft both over the former Arizona State star.
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
- NFFC ADP – 66.3 | RB19
Jones had an outstanding two-game run during the playoffs. He was the RB2 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest against two talented defenses. However, fantasy players must worry about his regular season struggles, as the veteran running back missed six games and left two others early because of hamstring and knee injuries. More importantly, Jones changed teams this offseason and is coming off arguably the year of his career.
The veteran posted career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%), per PFF. Jones ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, he turns 30 in December and is on a one-year contract. I would rather draft David Montgomery and Zamir White with a later ADP over the veteran running back.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
