The 2024 fantasy football season is nearly here. While some players’ fantasy value will change during the preseason, many leagues will have their draft over the next few weeks. There are two critical factors to winning your fantasy football league – finding sleepers and avoiding overpriced players.
Let’s look at six players that are overvalued fantasy football draft picks based on NFFC ADP from August 1 through August 13 for redraft leagues.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: NFFC Leagues
Stefon Diggs (WR – TEX)
- NFFC ADP – 39.4 | WR24
There are few players I will refuse to draft anywhere near their ADP this year, with Diggs at the top of that list. The veteran wide receiver’s draft cost is rising when it should be sinking. He has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. Diggs was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run, both lower averages than Noah Brown (per Fantasy Points Data).
I would consider giving the former superstar another chance in 2024 if he was still Josh Allen’s No. 1 wide receiver. Diggs saw a 27.5% target share, a 28% target per route run rate, and a 27.5% receiving yards market share last season with the Buffalo Bills (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, the veteran won’t see similar numbers this year, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell coming off impressive 2023 performances. Diggs should clearly be the third Texans receiver drafted and a late-sixth-round pick.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
- NFFC ADP – 97.4 | WR47
Fantasy players had high expectations for Jerry Jeudy heading into last season. However, it was Sutton who became Denver’s No. 1 wide receiver. The veteran had 10 receiving touchdowns last year, the fourth-most in the NFL. By comparison, he never had more than six receiving scores in a season before last year. Not only were the 10 touchdowns a career-high, but they accounted for over 40% of his career total. Yet, Sutton was far from a must-start wide receiver for fantasy players.
The veteran wide receiver was only the WR35, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing in 16 contests and his high touchdown rate. Sutton averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Kendrick Bourne despite having six more receiving scores. Furthermore, over 37% of Sutton’s fantasy points last year came from his receiving touchdowns. With Bo Nix expected to take over under center, don’t be surprised if Sutton struggles after having a career year in 2023.
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
- NFFC ADP – 118.8 | TE12
Goedert is still a talented starting-caliber NFL tight end. However, his days as a top-12 tight end are likely over. The veteran was the TE14, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, totaling only 7.6 more total fantasy points than Jonnu Smith. His 7.6 fantasy points per game average was the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2018. More importantly, Goedert had three receiving touchdowns, making it the third time in the past four years that he had three or fewer scores.
Philadelphia’s passing attack flows through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving Goedert fighting for targets. The veteran was 11th in target share (17.7%), ranking behind Zach Ertz, and 18th in target per route run rate (20%) behind Chigoziem Okonkwo among tight ends with at least 40 targets last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, his target volume could decline even more with Saquon Barkley in town. Fantasy players should draft Pat Freiermuth with a later ADP ahead of Goedert.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
