Fantasy Football Busts: Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, George Pickens, Patrick Mahomes

Drafts are happening thick and fast with every site offering a plethora of options to suit any budget or taste. One of the longest-running platforms is The FFPC, who cater more often to the higher budget options with drafts ranging from $35 up into the thousands, but the most popular is the FantasyPros Championship, a massive redraft contest with $1,000,000 to the winner.

FFPC uses a full PPR format with an additional 0.5 points awarded to tight ends for each reception. These are the most obviously overvalued fantasy football players to avoid on FFPC in August as potential busts.

Fantasy Football Busts: FFPC Leagues

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI): 14.0 ADP

The positives for Saquon Barkley are that he’s now in the most competent offense of his career and will be playing behind the best offensive line he’s ever played with, even if it’s lacking Jason Kelce’s presence. The negatives though — and there are several of them — are that Barkley’s route to fantasy gold seems somewhat blocked by the Brotherly Shove QB sneak still being allowed, something that led to Jalen Hurts leading the league in touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line last year with 13.

The Eagles have a play that is undefendable, so why give Barkley goal-line touches for the sake of it? Add to this that the Eagles targeted the running back position at the 12th-lowest rate in the league and it’s quite hard to imagine how Barkley strives and pays off his first-round average draft position (ADP) cost. Added to this, Will Shipley and Kenneth Gainwell continue to get plenty of run with the first team in training camp, suggesting this could be more of a committee than many would hope.

Saquon Barkley by Week 5 when Jalen Hurts steals his 7th red zone touchdown from him pic.twitter.com/PSzDmGe9ND

— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) March 11, 2024

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB): 40.9 ADP

When Josh Jacobs first landed with the Packers it felt like a match made in heaven with a young ascending offense wanting to get younger at the position, but also willing to give out a reasonable-sized contract to the former Raiders back. Unfortunately, the more you consider it the more it seems obvious Jacobs will fail to get the workload he needs to pay off his current ADP. Matt LaFleur has historically preferred a two-running-back system, using AJ Dillon throughout his time in Green Bay to spell Aaron Jones, despite Jones being hands down the better back. LaFleur’s history with this tactic dates back to Tennessee when he was a coordinator and kept Derrick Henry off the field in favor of Dion Lewis. The reports around Green Bay suggest MarShawn Lloyd will be a big part of the rotation when he returns from his minor hamstring strain. Jacobs historically hasn’t been efficient enough to make up for anything but a workhorse role.

George Pickens (WR – PIT): 54.3 ADP

Perhaps the current poster boy for ‘better in best ball,’ George Pickens’ fantasy production is as volatile as they come, which can be a hard pill to swallow in managed formats like this one. Through two seasons in the NFL, Pickens has seven top-12 weekly finishes in half-point per reception formats, but he also has a massive 17 finishes as WR40 or worse. Pickens has had to deal with woefully inadequate quarterback play under the unambitious leadership of Mike Tomlin in recent years. While Justin Fields and Russell Wilson might be upgrades over Kenny Pickett, the QB battle in Pittsburgh seems anything but a wealth of riches. It would be easier to accept his dud weeks if you take him in WR-heavy builds like Zero RB starts. If you’re starting RB-heavy, you’ll likely have Pickens as your WR2 and be relying on him for more production consistently.

I just want to see one George Pickens highlight that isn’t blatant OPI.pic.twitter.com/uRi8cymdvL

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) August 3, 2023

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): 50.5 ADP

With the additions the Kansas City Chiefs have made it’s fair to expect a bounceback season for Patrick Mahomes after a career-worst QB14 finish last year, the first time he finished outside the top six as a starter. Mahomes, though, is currently going as the QB2 on FFPC, ahead of both Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson who have far bigger weekly upsides due to their rushing floor. Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been 48 quarterbacks who averaged 5.0 rushing attempts per game. Of that 48, 64% finished as a top-12 quarterback in points per game with 46% finishing top-12 in total points scored. This is the barrier Mahomes has to overcome with excellent efficiency every year. While he’s done it plenty of times in his career, it’s risky at this cost.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

NFL Saquon Barkley Jalen Hurts Will Shipley Kenneth Gainwell Josh Jacobs AJ Dillon Aaron Jones Derrick Henry MarShawn Lloyd George Pickens Justin Fields Russell Wilson Kenny Pickett Patrick Mahomes Lamar Jackson