Identifying potential busts before the season begins can save a fantasy manager from these pitfalls. This article delves into some of the running backs being drafted as starting options, according to ADP, that could be set to disappoint fantasy managers in 2024. By understanding the warning signs and making informed decisions, fantasy players can mitigate the risk of drafting a running back who will leave their team high and dry when it matters most.

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Fantasy Football Busts: Overvalued Running Backs to Avoid

Fantasy football is a game of strategy, prediction and, sometimes, heartbreak. Among the many decisions managers face, selecting the right running back is often crucial. These players are typically the backbone of any fantasy team, expected to consistently deliver high points each week. However, not every highly-touted running back lives up to their preseason hype or average draft position (ADP). Some running backs can become significant busts due to injury, unexpected competition or underperformance, derailing an entire fantasy season.

The term “bust” in fantasy football refers to a player who fails to meet expectations, especially when those expectations are high. Running backs are particularly prone to this label because they are often selected in the early rounds of drafts, where the pressure to perform is immense. When a running back busts, it’s not just a minor setback; it can be a devastating blow to a fantasy manager’s championship hopes, as the opportunity cost of passing on other top-tier talent becomes painfully evident.

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

Kyren Williams has been a divisive topic in the fantasy community for months. Either you are extremely in on him for 2024 and expect similar results from a season ago, or you don’t see it as sustainable after coming off such a high workload. The numbers speak for themselves from 2023, where Williams finished the season as the RB2 in PPR fantasy points per game (21.3). Coming into the year, he was slowly creeping up fantasy draft boards with the talk he would be taking over the third-down passing role for the Rams.

After it was made clear the team could not count on incumbent starter Cam Akers, Williams assumed an unexpected workhorse role on the offense (83.9% snap share – RB1). Needless to say, he took that workload and provided fantasy managers with an unbelievable amount of production. He finished the year third in the league with 1,144 rushing yards, but his ability to find the end zone (15 touchdowns) is where he paid off.

Now as we head into the 2024 season and with that kind of production, one would assume Williams is projected to be one of the top RBs off the board in fantasy drafts, right? Wrong. Although he is solidly inside the top 10 backs being drafted (RB8/16th overall), there is some doubt baked into his cost. Even though he was highly prolific as a rusher last year, his usage in the passing game leaves a little bit of concern as to where his true ceiling can be.

Williams ranked as the RB4 in route participation in 2023 (61.3%), but that could only translate into an 11.5% target share (RB18), 48 targets (RB24) and 0.77 yards per route run (RB37). Couple all this with the selection of Blake Corum in the 2024 NFL Draft and there is a level of concern as to just how firm Williams’ grasp is of the bell-cow role in the Rams’ offense he held last year. If the rushing production becomes less efficient in 2024 and Corum eats away at his usage, it will be very hard for Williams to maintain the current RB8 value he has in drafts for 2024.

How we feelin’ Kyren managers? ???? pic.twitter.com/HMJQmWAz5B

— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) August 27, 2024

James Cook (RB – BUF)

Another volatile option at the RB position as we head into the 2024 season is James Cook. Managing Cook in 2023 on fantasy rosters was the epitome of a rollercoaster ride. He came out of the gate hot with four straight games over double-digit fantasy points, then was under that mark in four out of his next five games. Then once the change was made to place Joe Brady in the offensive coordinator role, Cook became one of the hottest players in the league with four straight RB1 finishes in Weeks 11-15.

But during the most important time of the year for fantasy managers, the fantasy playoffs, he let everyone down as he ranked outside the top 30 at the position in all three weeks during that timespan. On the season, Cook surprisingly finished with the fourth-most rushing yards (1,122) and eighth-most receiving yards (445) at his position. He even exceeded his expected fantasy points per game (13.6), but barely, as he finished the season as the RB19 with 13.7 points per game.

Similar to Kyren Williams, there are many question marks surrounding Cook, which is why you currently see a suppressed ranking of him (RB14/36th overall). As successful as he was between the 20-yard lines, once the Bills entered the red zone, Cook became somewhat of a forgotten option in the offense. His 33 attempts inside the red zone ranked as 29th on the year, and he scored just one touchdown in the red zone.

With the Bills losing Stefon Diggs to the Texans and not replacing him with another high-end receiver, the assumption early in the offseason was that the Bills could transition into a team that may look to run the ball more. This would have been a positive for Cook had the team not drafted Ray Davis. Now the leash may become shorter and shorter as the weeks go by for the former Georgia Bulldog. If Cook shows signs of struggle, we could see Davis being worked into the offense more and more throughout the season. This is a situation in which I would want to invest more in the player with the higher upside to see goal-line work, which is Ray Davis.

Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)

Aaron Jones found himself fighting through an injury-plagued 2023 season in which he only played in 11 games. His 12.3 points per game (RB26) was his lowest since 2018. His three total touchdowns were a career-low mark. This helped become the reason why he failed to meet his expected points per game (14.3), which would have ranked him easily as an RB2 on the year. Looking into more of the advanced metrics, there was just not an area where Jones stood out at the position, resulting in a very disappointing season for a player who had finished each of the previous four years as an RB1 in points per game.

Recency bias has played a major factor in how Jones is perceived in fantasy circles as the 2024 season draws near. Over the final three games of the season (including playoffs), Jones averaged 22.6 points per game and flashed the ability fantasy managers have been accustomed to seeing for years. In free agency, Jones decided to move on from the Packers and sign with the Minnesota Vikings to become their presumed RB1. Upon his signing, excitement grew among the fantasy community of the chance we could finally see the “Free Aaron Jones” movement take shape.

This is why he is currently firmly ranked as an RB2 (RB18/54th overall) for the 2024 season. But before buying completely into Jones being the do-it-all all option for the Vikings, we simply cannot forget about Ty Chandler, a player the coaching staff has said time and again will continue to have a role in this offense based on how well he performed down the stretch in 2023. I expect to see this backfield be more of an even split, which will make it hard for Jones to see the usage he needs to maintain his RB2 projection. This is enough for me to avoid him at his current fantasy ADP in 2024 drafts.

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