Shortly after Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell caught a beautiful 36-yard touchdown pass from C.J. Stroud in their preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers I took to Twitter (or “X,” call it what you will) to post “Well, Dell’s ADP is going to shoot up by a full round now.”
Oddly enough, that isn’t an exaggeration.
Humans are predictable, living in the “here and now” mindset with the “what have you done for me lately” attitude. Recency bias tends to sway our opinion of players, mainly when they perform well in preseason games. After all, this is our first taste of football in months, so there is a tendency to overblow or exaggerate every good play that occurs in mid-August.
Experts aren’t immune to shifting their rankings due to preseason breakouts, so paying attention to changes that might occur on your league’s host site is essential. I’ve been keeping a close eye on ESPN’s default rankings since they were updated in June, providing my thoughts on players that provide potential value or those you should stay away from. Here are a few I’d recommend passing on, given their current cost on ESPN compared to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR).
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: ESPN Leagues
Wide Receivers
- Keon Coleman (WR – BUF) | ECR: 123rd Overall/ESPN: 100th Overall
- Xavier Legette (WR – CAR) | ECR: 176th Overall/ESPN: 131st Overall
- Adonai Mitchell (WR – IND) | ECR: 160th Overall/ESPN: 135th Overall
ESPN closely mirrors ECR rankings for the first 100 players or so before clearly emphasizing rookies shortly after.
Keon Coleman is an intriguing player due to Buffalo’s mass exodus during free agency to improve their salary cap situation. The departure of both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis opens up a bevy of targets that will be spread among Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and Coleman. Coleman’s large 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame makes him a perfect contested-catch specialist in the “X” role, but we don’t view him as a volume-based play his rookie year as he learns the playbook.
Xavier Legette found a perfect home in Carolina, as the Panthers are desperate to find a complimentary piece opposite Diontae Johnson in the passing game. Questions remain about Legette’s upside, as most of his collegiate production at South Carolina came in just one season. His impressive physical traits are enticing (and reminiscent of DK Metcalf). Still, anyone taking a shot at him around his current rankings is banking on Legette learning the route tree faster than expected.
Adonai Mitchell’s inclusion on this list isn’t a knock on his talent but more of a concern of his expected total touches. As an explosive player at the University of Texas, Mitchell’s skill set is best suited to being a deep threat — a role already occupied by Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin. Even if he were to surpass those players on the depth chart (which we expect), he will need to contend with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor for targets on a run-first team with a quarterback prone to scrambling after his first read is covered. Call us skeptical about a massive breakout.
Tight Ends
- Kyle Pitts (TE -ATL) | ECR: 78th Overall/ESPN: 68th Overall
Those who have read my articles since I joined FantasyPros over the winter know I’m a massive advocate of Pitts — I’m fully endorsing a breakout season and buying into the hype. Kirk Cousins is under center and the departure of Arthur Smith can’t be understated. Better days are ahead for Pitts in 2024. ESPN is on the same wavelength as me and isn’t afraid to rank Pitts ahead of more historically consistent options like Keenan Allen or Terry McLaurin. If you’re willing to climb aboard the hype train, come aboard; there is always room for more. However, at 68th overall, it is removing any potential return on investment for Pitts, so be wary.
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