Fantasy Football Busts: Josh Allen & Tua Tagovailoa (2024)

Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the first part of an eight-part series, I will identify two fantasy football average draft position (ADP) values, two likely-to-bust candidates and two potential sleepers from the AFC East.

Fantasy Football Busts

ADP via FantasyPros

Bust Candidates

Josh Allen (QB – BUF): ADP 18.3 | QB1

Josh Allen was the QB1 in 2023, averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game. The superstar has finished as the QB1 in three of the past four seasons, with 2022 being the lone exception, ending the year as the QB2. While he has averaged 23+ fantasy points per game in four consecutive seasons, Allen had Stefon Diggs at his disposal for every top-two finish of his career.

Many are concerned the veteran won’t have the wide receiver core needed to put up QB1 numbers. Keon Coleman has had some positive moments during training camp but struggled earlier this offseason. Meanwhile, Curtis Samuel has been a fantasy afterthought most of his career. While Allen’s rushing production gives him a safe floor, the superstar shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes. More importantly, his 18.3 ADP is far too high.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA): ADP 99.7 | QB12

Miami recently gave Tua Tagovailoa a long-term extension, keeping him as the team’s quarterback for the foreseeable future. While he is a solid NFL player, Tagovailoa is on my do-not-draft list in 2024. The former Alabama star started last year on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff in the second half of the season.

The veteran averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Tagovailoa also struggled in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees last year, per Fantasy Points Data. Despite having Tyreek Hill at his disposal, Tagovailoa (15.9) averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning (16). Fantasy players should pass on Tagovailoa and draft Jayden Daniels with a later ADP.