10 Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid (2024)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football busts to avoid below.

2024 Fantasy Football Draft Busts

Brock Purdy (QB – SF)

I think my initial post-season analysis of Brock Purdy summarizes him perfectly.

“Back-to-back seasons where Purdy has posted a passing TD rate at 7% or higher. Most fantasy points scored ABOVE expectation in 2023. Nearly an average of 5 points or more scored over expectation. Tossed nearly 10 more TDS over expectation. QB33 in expected points per game. But with all that factored in. Still under 20 points per game at 19.2 (QB8). If you don’t draft Purdy, I don’t think it will kill your fantasy team. Everything has to remain perfect around him for him to be a top-8 fantasy QB, let alone top-5.”

We saw last season when Purdy lost a weapon or key offensive linemen, it was not a fun ride. Given that the 49ers are primed to experience a Super Bowl hangover – No.1 red-zone offense and No.2 healthiest offense – things might not be as smooth sailing for the third-year quarterback if the situation around him weakens.

Again, Purdy doesn’t offer the requisite rushing ability to mitigate any potential in passing TD efficiency.

I also don’t love the 49ers’ opening schedule. Home versus the Jets and then on the road versus the Vikings. New York still has one of the best defenses in the NFL. And the Vikings gave Purdy fits last season, holding him to under 13 fantasy points.
– Andrew Erickson

Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ)

Rodgers is 40 years old and coming back from a torn Achilles. When we last saw him play a full season with the Packers in 2022, Rodgers averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt (one of the lowest rates of his career) and threw 26 TD passes in 17 games.

The Jets’ offense will inevitably operate at a sluggish pace, which has always been the case when Rodgers has been paired with playcaller Nathaniel Hackett, who was Rodgers’ offensive coordinator in Green Bay for three years. Additionally, the Jets have one of the NFL’s best defenses, so Rodgers won’t be involved in many shootouts.

Rodgers’ ADP is only QB18, but even that modest price seems too high.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

Jacobs hasn’t been the same player since his epic 2022 season. The volume took a toll on him last year. He was unable to finish the season due to a quad strain sustained in Week 13. Coincidentally, he’s already dealing with a hamstring issue this early in the offseason. The biggest worry surrounding this back that I can’t seem to shake is his tackle-breaking juice might be gone…for good.

Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If Jacobs can somehow earn a stranglehold on volume, then he could still pay off this season, but with my guy MarShawn Lloyd on the roster and the team already talking up Lloyd’s role, I doubt that will happen. I’m fading Jacobs in 2024.
– Derek Brown

D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)

D’Andre Swift lands in Chicago with a contract that is large enough to consider him the clear starter for the Bears. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson had their moments last season, but the aggression and contact size for Chicago speak volumes about how they feel about those two rushers. The Bears obviously felt that an upgrade was warranted. Swift ranked 17th in explosive run rate last season while disappointing in other tackle-breaking metrics as the RB24 in fantasy. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, Swift ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Swift should be a solid RB2 in 2024.
– Derek Brown

Zack Moss (RB – CIN)

Early reports from Bengals training camp suggested that Chase Brown had an edge over Moss in the battle for RB snaps. Brown is younger and faster than Moss and a better pass catcher. But Moss has an ADP of RB29 and is being drafted several rounds ahead of Brown.

Moss was undeniably sensational for the Colts early last season when Jonathan Taylor was on IR (and in Taylor’s first game back). Over a four-game stretch in Weeks 2-5, Moss had 445 rushing yards, 72 receiving yards and four TDs. But from Week 6 on, Moss averaged 3.6 yards per carry and wasn’t nearly as effective. Don’t forget, Moss wasn’t exactly a dynamo during his two-and-a-half seasons in Buffalo either.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)

We’ve seen Diggs fall off in the second half of seasons in two consecutive years. If one year wasn’t enough to scare you off, then last year should have been. In the final seven games of 2022, Diggs only logged one 100-yard receiving game with 1.95 yards per route run. It was a similar, except an even more gruesome story in 2023. In Weeks 10-18 last year, Diggs finished as the WR45 or higher in weekly scoring only twice. During that stretch, he only had one game with more than 80 receiving yards while finishing as the WR52 in fantasy points per game.

Moving from Josh Allen to C.J. Stroud is a push as far as arm talent. The problem for Diggs is that even if you want to excuse away the back halves of the last two years, he’ll be challenged for targets by a strong trio of pass catchers in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. I’ll avoid Diggs in drafts for the upside swing of Collins or the value play of Dell.
– Derek Brown

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

Reed was a pleasant surprise as a rookie, finishing WR23 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. On the surface, his ADP of WR35 doesn’t seem unreasonable.

The problem is that Reed had a snap share of 70% or higher in only two of the 18 games he played last year (playoffs included). He didn’t even reach a 70% snap share in any of the eight games fellow Packers WR Christian Watson missed. Reed is rarely on the field whenever the Packers use two receiver sets.

Also, Reed scored 10 touchdowns last season on 75 touches (64 catches and 11 carries) That works out to a touchdown on 13.3% of his touches — a TD rate destined to regress.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)

Addison’s WR30 finish last year in fantasy points per game won’t be replicable in 2024 unless he cures a BUNCH of massive red flags in his profile. His rookie season was inflated by his insane touchdown luck. He was 15th in end zone targets last year and ran hot with the fourth-most receiving touchdowns among wide receivers behind only Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb. All of his other metrics were in the toilet. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 46th in target share, 59th in targets per route run, 51st in yards per route run, and 58th in first downs per route run. Touchdowns are fluky. Everything points to Addison being a bust in 2024, so I’ll be happily avoiding him.
– Derek Brown

Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)

I’ve mentioned how being the No. 1 or No. 2 target is critical for a tight end to be a top fantasy producer. So that brings up the question: How many times has the TE1 not been the No. 1 target on his team? Last year, it happened with Lions rookie Sam LaPorta.

But it was the first time since 2017 that a tight end finished as the TE1 overall with fewer than 135 targets while also failing to lead his offense in total targets.

Simply put, LaPorta’s status as the late-round tight end was two-fold. Not only did he perform well above expectations (with a clear path to targets, mind you, in Year 1), but it also occurred in a season where the elite TEs failed to fire.

Keep in mind that Rob Gronkowski was the last TE to be TE1 without leading his team in targets that season. He averaged 13.8 points per game in half-PPR.

LaPorta’s 11.6 points per game as the TE1 last season is the weakest TE1 season we have seen since 2016 (Travis Kelce). Before Kelce was providing an elite level advantage among TEs.

In most years, LaPorta would finish closer to TE4 with that production. And that’s why I think he’s vastly overvalued. As the TE1 overall and to the other “elite” tight ends that are drafted one or two rounds after him.

He scored 10 TDs, nearly three of above expectation per PFF. His expected fantasy points per game ranked sixth in the NFL last season among TEs (again per PFF). The FantasyPros Touchdown Regression Report suggests LaPorta is a massive candidate for TD regression closer to the mean.

His points per game through 18 weeks were identical to Mark Andrews and below Kelce and Hockenson. I don’t get the temptation for drafters to select LaPorta – who we can almost all agree won’t see more targets than a healthy Amon-Ra St. Brown given all the other weapons in Detroit’s offense – when Andrews and Dalton Kincaid go nearly three rounds later as much better bets to be the No. 1 targets in their respective offenses.

LaPorta in 2024 is like how Jonathan Taylor was drafted two years ago. He was coming off an overall RB1 season driven by TDs in a year where RB scoring was down. The injuries were not easily predictable the following season, but his status as RB1 should have been discussed more. He was propped up by an unusual down year at his position. And that’s what drafters are doing with LaPorta in 2024. Drafting the TE that saw the biggest boost due to TDs, even though he ranked 7th in receiving yards per game among TEs.

He HAS to be better than he was last year if he wants to repeat his efforts as the TE1 in fantasy football.
– Andrew Erickson

David Njoku (TE – CLE)

What David Njoku did late last season should not be ignored.

The Browns’ tight end was FULLY unlocked with Joe Flacco as his QB. In Flacco’s five starts, Njoku has a 22% target share, averaging nine targets per game. 17.1 expected points per game in half-point scoring. But even before Flacco got there, Njoku had been HEATING up. Weeks 7-17, Njoku ranked first in expected fantasy points per game at 16.8 among all tight ends. Deshaun Watson was his QB in just two of those contests.

But in terms of projecting him into 2024, he checks off a lot of the boxes you don’t want from a tight end. He’s going in the middle tier as the TE10. He has a new offensive coordinator and a different QB than the ones that were present during his late-season surge. He did the majority of his damage with Joe Flacco as his QB. He also ranked second in total red-zone targets among tight ends in the last two seasons under his former OC Alex Van Pelt (now with the Patriots).

There’s no denying Njoku’s talent as a player, but there are enough question marks about his current situation to forego him as a priority target in fantasy drafts unless he falls into the late-round tier.
– Andrew Erickson