Thankfully, the 2024 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the fifth part of an eight-part series, I will identify two fantasy football ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC East.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers
Bust Candidates
Austin Ekeler (WAS): ADP 93.7 | RB31
While he was once a top-tier running back, Ekeler is on my do-not-draft list this year. The veteran running back went from a featured heavy workload and a pocket passing quarterback with the Los Angeles Chargers to being Brian Robinson Jr.’s partner in crime with a dynamic running quarterback. Adding Ekeler was an outstanding move for Washington, as he is a solid pass protector and a reliable receiver out of the backfield for an offense that lacks veteran playmakers, but it severely crushed his fantasy value.
Meanwhile, Robinson will be the team’s lead back and the goal line specialist. More importantly, Ekeler’s efficiency has declined. He has had back-to-back seasons with a 2.99 or lower yards after contact per attempt average after averaging at least 3.01 or more yards each of his first five years in the NFL (per PFF). Furthermore, Ekeler’s 2.2% explosive run rate last season ranked 39th among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, posting a lower rate than Joshua Kelley and Alexander Mattison (per Fantasy Points Data).
Dallas Goedert (PHI): ADP 109.7 | TE12
Goedert is still a talented starting-caliber NFL tight end. However, his days as a top-12 tight end are likely over. The veteran was the TE14, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, totaling only 7.6 more total fantasy points than Jonnu Smith. His 7.6 fantasy points per game average was the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2018. More importantly, Goedert had three receiving touchdowns, making it the third time in the past four years that he had three or fewer scores.
Philadelphia’s passing attack flows through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving Goedert fighting for targets. The veteran was 11th in target share (17.7%), ranking behind Zach Ertz, and 18th in target per route run rate (20%) behind Chigoziem Okonkwo among tight ends with at least 40 targets last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, his target volume could decline even more with Saquon Barkley in town. Fantasy players should draft Pat Freiermuth with a later ADP (135.3 | TE15) ahead of Goedert.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
