Fantasy Football Advice: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks

If you’re a die-hard fantasy football player you’ve likely heard discussion of ambiguous backfields: NFL teams where it is unclear heading into the season who will serve as the team’s lead rusher. Targeting an ambiguous backfield in fantasy comes with risk but also high potential reward, as picking the right member of an ambiguous backfield can give you a team’s RB1 at a huge discount.

Today, I’m going to talk about ambiguous receiver rooms. Although they’re not quite as common as ambiguous backfields, a very similar principle can be applied to NFL teams with multiple talented receivers in an unclear pecking order. Teams with ambiguous receiver rooms that are expected to have productive offenses are often a great source of value and upside for savvy fantasy managers.

Heading into the 2024 fantasy football draft season, three teams stand out as fitting this bill perfectly: Packers, Texans, Bears.

Ambiguous Wide Receiver Situations

With talented young quarterbacks and lots of weapons, these teams are going to score plenty of receiving fantasy points… we’re just not sure who will do the scoring. But that ambiguity, and the risk that comes with it, has pushed down average draft positions (ADPs) for these players. For fantasy managers willing to embrace ambiguity, this is a huge opportunity. In this article, I will give my pick for the best (and worst) values at cost from each of these teams. Let’s get started!

Green Bay Packers

Jayden Reed vs. Christian Watson vs. Romeo Doubs vs. Dontayvion Wicks

Best Pick: Dontayvion Wicks (ADP: WR61)

Let me start by getting one thing clear: I’m not saying Dontayvion Wicks is the best fantasy football asset of this quartet of young receivers in a vacuum. Fantasy football isn’t played in a vacuum, so cost has to be taken into account. And Wicks has by far the cheapest cost of this group, being drafted outside the top 150 picks in half-PPR leagues, according to FantasyPros’ ADP Tool. This is not without good reason.

Wicks is likely to at least start the season fourth in the competition for snaps. He played just one of three snaps with Jordan Love in the Packers’ preseason debut on Saturday, while each of the other three WRs played at least two. If we want a bigger sample size, Wicks played on just six of Love’s 26 snaps in the Packers’ televised “Family Night” practice. That’s not good.

However, Wicks is worth betting on for one simple reason: He might be the most talented receiver on this roster. In 2023, his 77.0 Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade paced the group. He also posted a very impressive 1.94 yards per route run, good for 27th out of 96 qualified receivers.

Reed did edge him out overall at 1.95, but Wicks was more efficient both in the slot (2.50 to 2.07) and outside of the slot (1.63 to 1.59) than his fellow rookie. Even if Wicks starts the season fourth on the Packers’ depth chart there’s a chance he earns his way into a full-time role as the season goes on.

If not, he has a contingent upside if any of the other three get injured. He will probably see the field consistently at some point this season, and he should make the most of it when he does. Given his ADP is way down in the 13th round of a 12-team league, it’s worth drafting him and waiting for that to happen.

Worst Pick: Jayden Reed (ADP: WR34)

A second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Jayden Reed’s rookie season was undeniably impressive. He finished as the WR23 in half-PPR, combining clean route-running out of the slot with extreme efficiency on the ground (he scored two rushing touchdowns on just 11 attempts) to put up points even in a limited role.

However, that limited role is my big issue with Reed heading into 2024. He ran a whopping total of three routes in 2-WR sets as a rookie. As a result, he played greater than 70% of the Packers’ offense snaps just twice. This got worse later in the season (as Christian Watson and others got healthier). He played just 46% and 61% of snaps in the Packers’ two playoff games, recording a total of four catches for 35 yards.

Heading into 2024, Reed’s role does not appear to have changed. He appeared for just 16 of Love’s 26 snaps on Family Night, a 62% rate in line with his rookie numbers. Now, it may seem strange I’m harping so much on Reed’s usage when I just called Wicks, who has seen undeniably worse usage, my favorite pick.

But there are two key differences between these two sophomore receivers: The specifics of their limited role and cost. For fantasy purposes, Reed is the most expensive of this group by a margin, with a half-PPR ADP in round seven. Second, the reason for Reed’s limited snaps (not playing in 2-WR sets) is more likely to be permanent than Wicks’ issue (simply not starting in any set).

After all, there are logical reasons why Reed isn’t playing in 2-WR sets: He is undersized at just 5-foot-11 and 191 pounds and he posted a terrible 50.2 PFF run blocking grade as a rookie. These facts aren’t likely to change and spending a seventh-round pick on a part-time player is not the way to chase upside in an ambiguous situation.

The Others: Christian Watson (ADP: WR43) & Romeo Doubs (ADP: WR53)

Both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are solid picks at their respective ADPs. Neither has posted metrics as impressive as either Wicks or Reed, but they are, for now, the heavy favorites to simply be on the field most often.

Watson has struggled to stay healthy but still has a very impressive athletic profile, while Doubs will probably lead the team in routes and is by no means a bad receiver. It wouldn’t be at all shocking if one member of this duo led the Packers in targets, at which point they would be all but guaranteed to well outperform their ADP.