Welcome to our latest fantasy football installment, “Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers,” where we delve into the shifting tides of player valuations over the past week with Preseason Week 1 in the books.

With preseason games and training camps in full swing, we finally have REAL news that is already influencing the Average Draft Position (ADP) movement.

As the NFL preseason continues for two more weeks, understanding these shifts in ADP can be crucial in planning your draft strategy as things shift due to training camp news. In this article, we’ll explore the players who have seen their stock soar and those who have dipped since late July to shed light on potential reasons behind these changes.

To enhance your experience and analysis, we’ve included a variety of charts illustrating the risers and fallers at each position. These charts will help you better understand the magnitude of these shifts and the trends that could be impacting player valuations. Whether you’re gearing up for your league’s draft or simply staying informed on the fantasy landscape, these insights will provide you with a clearer picture of the current fantasy football market dynamics.

The charts are aggregated ADP from best ball ADP, which includes BB10s, Underdog Fantasy, Drafters and RTSports.

To provide a thorough analysis, the article is organized by position – quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends – allowing you to see the trends specific to each category. This breakdown will help you pinpoint where the most significant changes are happening and how they might affect your draft strategy across different positions.

Join us as we break down the biggest risers and fallers in fantasy football ADP, providing you with the knowledge to make informed decisions and potentially find value picks that could make or break your fantasy season.

And if you want even MORE, check out the following podcast episode where Tom Strachan and I break down all the Week 1 preseason action. All 16 games.

Shouted preseason GOAT and top FantasyPros expert ranker @PFF_NateJahnke on the show for some of his essential preseason data points.

Make sure you're following him for all things pre szn data related AND for expert in-season analysis.

Keep doing the Lord's work Nate ???? https://t.co/k933QumjF3

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 13, 2024

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Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers

Running Backs

RISERS

You could have watched almost zero preseason football this past week, and you likely would have seen Eric Gray‘s two touchdown highlights from the Giants-Lions tilt. As great as he looked, the important factor is that he didn’t do this with the starters. Tyrone Tracy was well ahead of Gray on the depth chart, with Devin Singletary sitting. If Gray continues on a preseason heater then maybe Tracy loses out as the RB2 in Big Blue. But for now, best be not to chase the preseason production and opt for how the rookie was deployed as the RB2 in Big Blue. That being said, Tracy left practice on Tuesday after suffering a non-contact injury. Gray szn might be just getting started…

Jeff Wilson Jr. got an extended run in the preseason, with Jaylen Wright relegated to RB5 status. It’s the same as De’Von Achane last season. So don’t overreact to Wilson seeing so much time. If anything, this could be a way to showcase Wilson for teams looking for a potential upgrade at RB. Reunion in SF? Stay tuned.

It might come down to how the current 49ers depth chart shakes out with all their injuries. Christian McCaffrey (calf) and Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) are both out with injuries. Jordan Mason drew the start in their absence and looks to be in the driver’s seat to usurp Mitchell as the RB2 in SF. He started, played well, and immediately sat down. Typically, that’s the preseason workload for a valued asset.

Jamaal Williams split carries/snaps with Alvin Kamara – 33/66 -with Kendre Miller still on the injury shelf. Short-term look: Miller might be a total zero under HC Dennis Allen. Long-term outlook? Allen might not be the Saints HC for much longer given his odds to be the first coach fired this season. The team might look very different in the second half of the season.

Around a week ago, John Harbaugh called Justice Hill a “starting running back in the NFL.” He didn’t play in the preseason game this past weekend, given his status on the depth chart as the clear-cut No. 2. I’m not saying this is a 1A/1B committee. But Derrick Henry was spelled for rookie Tyjae Spears often last season. I don’t think it’s crazy, given Hill’s skill set, that he could be the lightning to Henry’s thunder in this backfield, especially in more fast-paced contests versus Baltimore playing with leads in the second halves of games.

Rico Dowdle operated as the clear lead back for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1 of the preseason. He had a 9-yard run and finished with three carries for 14 yards. Mike McCarthy called him very decisive and claimed he saw everything he needed from Dowdle. To the moon, Uncle Rico? Maybe not. But ahead of Ezekiel Elliott in the rankings? You bet.

It’s Chase Brown season. Drew the start for Cincy in Week 1 of the preseason. Zack Moss was ill and did not play.

@AndrewErickson_ peep that blitz pickup by CB30 ???????? https://t.co/VOvP1BjGoG

— Matthew (@MatthewMourot) August 10, 2024

Brown played two 3rd and longs. He’s getting the pass pro reps we needed to see to help him leap in Year 2. Also touched the ball on nearly 50% of the snaps played. 13/13 snaps with first offense per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.

Sione Vaki‘s rise likely won’t stop, given the recent injury to Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring). The former college safety was drafted as a running back by the Lions, but he is still more of a developmental play. If Gibbs is forced to miss time or regular season action, Craig Reynolds would see the biggest boost alongside David Montgomery.

FALLERS

Should Jaret Patterson be falling? Not if you ask Chargers beat reporter, Daniel Popper. Popper projects Patterson to make the 53-man roster OVER 6th-rounder Kimani Vidal (another massive faller).

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— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 12, 2024

In the first preseason game, none of the meaningful Chargers RBs played between J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards; Vidal warmed up but didn’t play.

MarShawn Lloyd suffered a hamstring injury during the preseason exhibition game against the Browns, clouding his status regarding his regular season role. In his absence, Emmanuel Wilson played well. The Packers have previously praised their RB4 on the depth chart, citing that he was viewed as the RB2 behind Aaron Jones back in March. Not only does the Lloyd injury help Wilson, but so does A.J. Dillon‘s performance. Or their lack of. Dillon had 2 yards on 4 carries – 2nd & 1 – three straight carries. They turned the ball over on downs. I’m not sure how much more Dillon this staff needs to see to get him off the field.

As the remaining Packers RBs fail to assert themselves, Josh Jacobs looks more and more primed for a workhorse role.

Wide Receivers

RISERS

Johnny Wilson, Ray-Ray McCloud and Jalen Nailor are their team’s respective WR3s.

Rookie WR Malik Washington contributed a 21-yard rush on an end around while operating as the Dolphins’ primary kick returner. Why is this important? Because it means that Washington will be ACTIVE on game days – similar to what happened to De’Von Achane during his rookie year. While Odell Beckham Jr. continues to deal with an injury (on the PUP list), Washington has the chance to stake his claim for a larger role in Miami’s offense.

Other players who could also benefit from being their team’s kick returners: Anthony Gould, Will Shipley, Parker Washington, Malachi Corley, Cedrick Wilson and Emmanuel Wilson.

The Broncos opened up their preseason game with a three-man WR crew consisting of Courtland Sutton (WR1), Tim Patrick (WR2) and Josh Reynolds (WR3). Marvin Mims took the first snap of the game and then didn’t play again until the fourth drive. On the surface, this doesn’t seem great. Mims didn’t get much run with the “starters” after starting the game (Josh Reynolds replaced him after the first snap). But he re-entered the game on Bo Nix‘s second drive, which ended in a red-zone TD reception. The opening start could be a nod to Mims as a “veteran starter” and his re-insertion into the lineup could be to get more reps with the presumed starter in Nix.

Even though Payton has continued to talk about SIZE with his WRs, I’d be surprised if we don’t see Mims start the next preseason game that Nix also starts, if he plays at all. Meanwhile, rookie Troy Franklin is very, very much buried on the depth chart. Late into the 2nd quarter. If I am taking a late dart throw shot on a Broncos WR, it’s Mims for me.

I also say this every week, but Rashee Rice‘s price continues to rise as the 2024 suspension seems less and less likely to transpire. Also helps his immediate fantasy value that Marquise Brown will miss the remainder of training camp and potential regular season games due to a shoulder injury.

Rams rookie WR Jordan Whittington caught 6 balls for 74 yards against the Cowboys. Per Jordan Rodrigue of the Athletic, Whittington could back up either Kupp or Nacua. Given how much time Kupp has missed the last two seasons and Nacua’s current injury, Whittington looks like a strong injury contingent bet that’s free at the end of deeper drafts.

FALLERS

Most of the fallers are related to injuries, such as Hollywood Brown and Josh Downs. However, that excuse cannot be made for Quentin Johnston. His fantasy value is on life support. He didn’t start with other “starter” WRs resting. He also didn’t play until D.J. Chark left the game. Not good.

The starting three WRs for the Bengals without Ja’Marr Chase were Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas and Trenton Irwin. Jermain Burton was stuck on the 3rd string offense – with only 5 snaps through 3 quarters. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said post-game via the Athletic that it was less about Burton than the fact that the second-string offense couldn’t get anything going.

But Burton had a noteworthy performance with a 37-TD and another 38-yard catch. Needless to say, I don’t think he will be regulated to the third-string offense in the next preseason contest. Keep in mind that Irwin/Iosvias/Burton are all competing for that last slot WR spot. Iosvias has been a camp superstar, but he’s been in the Ja’Marr Chase role. The team might view Burton in the Higgins role, potentially making both Iosivas/Burton injury contingent plays until one can usurp Irwin. Seems likely the Bengals will put their explosive young WRs out there sooner rather than later.

Tight Ends

RISERS

Chigoziem Okonkwo is stuck in a committee with Josh Whyle. We had heard rumblings out of training camp that the team was ready to deploy a tight end tandem between Okonkwo and Whyle, with it coming to fruition in the first preseason game. This makes Okonkwo a tough sell as a late-round tight end target.

Bears tight end Cole Kmet was playing behind Gerald Everett who out-snapped him 14 vs 11. Both guys started as Chicago opened with a run play in 12 personnel.

Gerald Everett has played with Bears OC Shane Waldron for multiple years for different teams in the NFL. There’s been a steady drum beat from beat writers this season that we are “sleeping” on Everett who should have a bigger role in this offense than most should anticipate.

Quote from the Athletic regarding Everett’s outlook/fit in Waldron’s offense,

“Just being interchangeable with receivers and the tight ends, and even the running back,” he said. “I mean, I don’t think there are many tight ends that are doing jet sweeps or catching screens, so hopefully to implement that as well as I did any other year that I have been in the league. It’s scary. It’s scary. I’m sure you guys have seen it,” he said. “Even today, we gave the defense something to look at, something they probably weren’t ready for, but like I said, being interchangeable, even with DJ (Moore) and Keenan (Allen) and the guys in the receiving room. We’re going to want to play all of the spots. Whether it be right direction or left direction, we’re all going to be flying up and down the field.”

Everett mentions “interchangeable” multiple times. Not ideal for fantasy football purposes where we want more concentrated offenses for production.

FALLERS

Colby Parkinson is the starter and, according to the Athletic’s Jordan Rodrigue, will be the lead tight end in 11 personnel. Parkinson did not play in Preseason Week 1. The Rams do not play their starters in the preseason.

The Colts continue to use a 4-man committee at tight end with no player separating from the pack. No guy can be trusted. Shane Steichen wants Jelani Woods to be that guy, but the consistency isn’t there yet.

Greg Dulcich is still stuck in a beta role with Adam Trautman in Denver. However, could he be a Trey McBride type of bet in the second half of the season? 100%. We’ve seen what Dulcich can do as a receiver, and he just needs a bigger role to be fully unlocked.

Quarterbacks

RISERS

Justin Fields was very Fields-esque in Preseason Week 1. He had some nice throws, flashed athleticism, took sacks and fumbled snaps. Not good enough to win the Steelers QB1 job, but not bad enough for Mike Tomlin to pray for Russell Wilson‘s calf to magically heal. Still, every day that Fields gets more repetitions with the 1s, increases the odds he is the Week 1 starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Note that the Steelers did not ask for Fields to stretch the field, with almost every single throw near or just past the line of scrimmage. His aDOT was 4.7 yards.

FALLERS

Bo Nix looked in control of the Broncos’ offense in the first week of the preseason. Say what you want about Nix as an older college prospect (I’m not the biggest fan), but in Sean Payton’s system, he has the chance to exceed expectations for fantasy purposes. He can execute the offense at a level that Payton desires, and that will lead to fantasy points for the Denver playmakers we care about in fantasy football.

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