It’s your final call to make a trade before deadlines are here. Trading is an important component of fantasy sports and it’s important to get it right. Each week during the season I take a deeper look at four players you should either buy high or sell low based on their current value. Here are some players that have my interest.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Start/Sit Lineup Advice
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice (Week 20)
Buy High
Blake Snell started the year hurt and then terribly before turning it around in his last five outings. On the season he is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 in 56.2 innings across 11 starts. His FIP stands at 3.10 while his xERA is 2.87 suggesting much better results based on his current form. His recent hot streak has been impressive with eight total hits allowed and a 0.55 ERA in his last 33 innings including a no-hitter in Cincinnati. On top of this streak, Snell famously always turns his season around in the second half. For his career, from March to June, his ERA is 4.34. From July to October, it’s 2.39. Now that he is back healthy, he looks poised for another second half of dominance.
Manny Machado started his season slow before picking it up in June and July. Overall, he’s slashing .272/.325/.448 with 54 runs scored, 17 home runs, 61 RBI and five steals in 105 games. His quality-of-contact metrics are as good as ever. His average exit velocity of 92 miles per hour (MPH) is the second-highest of his career. Machado’s hard-hit rate of 48.2% is also the third-best of his career. The problem he was having in the first half was his groundball rate of over 45%. He’s lowered that number over the last couple of months and it’s led to 12 home runs since the beginning of June. His strikeout rate is slightly higher than his career average but it isn’t a big concern. Machado seems to be past his early-season struggles and should finish the season strong.
Sell Low
Garrett Crochet has had a phenomenal season and will be a popular draft pick next season. On the season he is 6-8 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 12.3 K/9 over 118.1 innings across 23 starts. He has already pitched 105.2 innings more than last year and 45.1 innings more than his entire professional career. The Chicago White Sox have been limiting his workload lately and he hasn’t pitched past the fourth inning since the end of June. Not getting traded at the deadline took a big hit to Crochet’s fantasy value. Not only does he have little-to-no chance of getting a win, but the White Sox have no reason to push his innings and risk injury. The window to sell high is likely closed but there are still fantasy managers who will buy someone as good as Crochet.
Nolan Gorman is having a rough season. He’s slashing .199/.272/.408 with 41 runs scored, 19 home runs, 50 RBI and six steals in 99 games. His 37.9% strikeout rate is in the bottom percentile of the league. Last season, he broke out with 27 home runs and a .806 OPS but had a 31.9% strikeout rate. The hope was he would improve on his big season and make improvements to his strikeout rate. However, Gorman is having an all-around worse year in plate discipline. His zone contact rate is 70.7%, which is 11% lower than the league average. He’s chasing more this year and making significantly less contact when he does chase as well.
He still barrels the ball as well as anybody in the league when he does make contact, though. Gorman has a 17.3% barrel rate and .472 xwOBAcon. The problem is he rarely makes contact. Since the acquisition of Tommy Pham, he has lost playing time with Brendan Donovan moving to second. There’s still time for the 24-year-old to figure it out but it likely isn’t going to be this year.
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