With almost five full months of statistics piled up for fantasy baseball, players are mostly who their stats say they are at this point. However, all players are prone to slumps and hot streaks. Fantasy baseball managers must learn how to identify those and jump on the waiver wire if a cold player is dropped or a hot streak is emerging. Regression can happen even in the smallest of sample sizes.
Last week, this column correctly predicted positive regression for Anthony Santander (two homers, six RBI last week) and negative regression for Jorge Polanco (.250 average, 25% strikeout rate). However, Isaac Paredes continued to struggle, with a batting average below .200 and just a .321 slugging percentage. Sometimes, the expectation of regression doesn’t match what happens.
This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance each week to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
With the MLB trade deadline now in the distant past and the fantasy playoffs around the corner, the goal here is to identify players who are due for hot streaks and cold streaks and acquire them before their value rises or sell high before the crash. Below are four players worth considering.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Tools
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates
(Stats up to date through August 26th)
Players Due for Positive Regression
No other player in baseball has been more unlucky than Josh Naylor over the last two weeks. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a laughable .075 (league average is .290), which has led to a .106 overall batting average. The reason why this is certain to turn around is because Naylor is one the most disciplined hitters in the Major Leagues. Even during this two-week slump, he is striking out only nine percent of the time and he has an 11% walk rate.
If at first you don’t succeed, try again …
Josh Naylor did just that ???? pic.twitter.com/NHAy3YEUva
– MLB (@MLB) August 25, 2024
What this means is that most of his plate appearances have resulted in a ball in play or a walk. He just can’t seem to find the holes on the field to get his hits down. Somehow, he still has two home runs and five RBI in this span of time, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that this is one of the coldest streaks a player has seen in 2024. Do not fear if you roster Josh Naylor. It will assuredly turn around again soon.
After a very strong first half for Adley Rutschman when he hit .275/.339/.441 with 16 home runs, something has happened to sink his second half. The star Orioles catcher is hitting only .216/.284/.343 with two home runs in the second half of the season. That has also impacted his ability to drive in runs (59 in the first half, 12 in the second). His power is essentially non-existent, but there are signs that this could turn around soon.
2nd-half home runs:
Ramon Urias: 5
Adley Rutschman, Ryan O’Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, combined: 4– Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) August 26, 2024
First, his BABIP (.108 over his last dozen games) is one of the worst 25 numbers in the league during that span. Like Josh Naylor, Rutschman is only striking out nine percent of the time so he is up at the plate making contact. His flyball rate in the second half (46%) is actually higher than the first half (41%) and his line drive rate is almost the same. Where I also see some flukiness is in his home run per flyball rate. For the first half, it was a very strong 13%. Over the last two months, it has been just 4.7%. All that shows that this is variance and not some issue with Rutschman’s swing or contact ability. He has plenty of time to turn it around.
Players Due for Negative Regression
In 10 games since coming off the injured list, Triston Casas has been unreal at the plate. He is hitting .359/.418/.538 with 14 hits and six RBI. He is showing no ill effects from the rib cage injury that kept him out for almost three months of the season. What is driving this success after so much time away and can it possibly continue? Those are complicated questions, but color me skeptical that Casas can keep up this level of production for five more weeks.
Triston Casas has the 17th-best wRC+ and OPS in baseball since he came off the IL.
10th in OBP. 4th in BA. 22nd in SLG. 15th in wOBA.
Minimum 40 plate appearances. pic.twitter.com/CL6sZzD21n
– Tyler Milliken ? (@tylermilliken_) August 27, 2024
Casas has an unreal .545 BABIP over the last two weeks despite striking out 35% of the time. Typically, those two numbers can be nowhere near each other. If you are so undisciplined at the plate that you are striking out more than a third of the time, you are going to swing and make contact with poor pitches and pitches designed to generate ground balls. For Casas, he has somehow avoided that despite his high strikeout numbers. But with a .545 BABIP (almost 30 points higher than any other player), we can be sure that the average and power will regress as the season comes closer to an end.
A big part of the New York Mets’ surge over the last two weeks has been because of Mark Vientos’ bat. Over the last 13 games, he is hitting a robust .314/.386/.627 with four home runs and 11 RBI. He and Francisco Lindor have been the lynchpins in getting the Mets into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. It’s been more than just power as well. Vientos is walking nine percent of the time up to bat and has chipped in nine runs in that span as well. But considering his combination of BABIP and strikeout rate, it doesn’t seem sustainable.
No player in baseball has a higher strikeout rate than Vientos’ 40.4% over the last two weeks. And that flaw has impacted him the most with men on base. With the bases empty, Vientos is hitting .288/.339/.594, but with men in scoring position, that drops to .256/.323/.427. His BABIP is also an insane .500 over that time, so he and Triston Casas are suffering from the same afflictions. With that many strikeouts and that much luck on the balls he is hitting in play, a drop-off seems inevitable over the remaining weeks of the season.
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