Finding regression candidates is getting more and more important as the fantasy baseball season nears its final month. Is a player’s performance through four months simply who they are this year? Or, have they been extremely lucky or unlucky for four months? Things can change quickly in fantasy baseball. Just ask a player like Vinnie Pasquantino, who is the third-best fantasy hitter over the last week but had just a .717 OPS in July.
Last week, this column correctly predicted a positive regression for Gerrit Cole (a bounce-back start with 5.2 innings pitched and a 3.18 ERA) and a negative regression for Tyler O’Neill (the 206th-ranked fantasy baseball hitter over the last seven days). However, George Springer continued to struggle, defying expectations for positive regression even with his move back to the top of the lineup.
This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance each week to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
With the MLB Trade Deadline now in the past and the fantasy playoffs around the corner, the goal here is to identify players who are due for hot streaks and cold streaks and acquire them before the value rises or sell high before the crash. Below are four players worth considering.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Tools
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates
(Stats up to date through August 5th)
Players Due for Positive Regression
The 480-foot home run that Sanchez hit on Monday night (longest of the 2024 season) is a reminder of just how awesome his power can be and how he is a couple of tweaks away from becoming one of the most feared power bats in the league. Sanchez is having a mediocre year by his standards through 103 games. His .241/.289/.414 slash line looks worse compared to 2023, but there are signs that the power is trending up and that this year might be falling heavily on the unlucky side of the ledger.
At 13 home runs on the season, Sanchez is already one away from his career high with 55 games to go. This is the fourth year in a row in which he has cut his strikeout rate (24.7% this year). His barrel rate (12.3%) and hard-hit rate (54%) are up. His launch angle is up as well.
Sanchez is swinging at more pitches in the zone and making better contact with pitches outside the zone. Add all of it up, and the underlying metrics believe Sanchez’s average and slugging percentage are trailing way behind where they should be at this point.
Sanchez’s expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) look much better than his numbers in reality. Statcast believes Sanchez should be slugging .500 with an average over .260. Put Sanchez in a neutral field like Washington or Chicago and all of a sudden his home runs should be in the 19-20 range. The eight steals are an added bonus this year as the 26-year-old looks to build on what is slowly becoming a career year.
There is a solid case to be made that Arrighetti has been the unluckiest starter in the league this year. With the rash of injuries to the Houston pitching staff, the rookie has been forced to make 20 starts this season, and the outwardly facing numbers look downright awful. He is 4-10 with a 5.33 ERA while giving up 4.5 walks per nine innings. None of those numbers are close to respectable and do not scream “roster me in fantasy!” Looking under the hood, however, there are plenty of things to like.
Take Arrighetti’s start against Tampa Bay on Sunday as an example of the gains he has made. In that outing, he struck out 12 batters while allowing just one run in six innings. His last five starts have reflected his progress, as he has a 3.41 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 29 innings.
Arrighetti’s ERA on the season (5.33) does not line up with his expected ERA (4.04). FIP (4.21), or xFIP (4.20). Primarily, the walks and a .341 BABIP are to blame. That BABIP is one of the 12 highest numbers among starters this season.
Just looking at his splits for July, we can see regression is already on its way for Arrighetti. The strikeout rate is around 10 per nine innings. His walks are down. His WHIP is down, and the high seasonal BABIP normalized last month to .296. This doesn’t mean Arrighetti is a top-20 starter the rest of the way, but our confidence level in rostering him should be up after these recent dominant performances.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Bogaerts missed almost two full months of the season with a shoulder injury suffered on May 20. He came back right around the All-Star Break. Since then, he has literally been one of the best hitters in baseball. Maybe he got a bionic arm or something implanted because he has been hitting .438/.456/.578 since the return, with 10 multi-hit games out of 16 played.
It’s a great story for a very good player who unfortunately had to miss so much time, but I’m afraid it won’t continue forever. Bogaert’s BABIP in that timeframe is .474 despite, drawing only two walks to go along with just seven strikeouts. What made it even more impressive (and improbable) is his opponents during that time. He has played against the Dodgers, Orioles, Guardians, and Braves. Each of those clubs is known for strong pitching, but Bogaerts has solved every one of them.
One key indicator of an impending fall is the lack of power. Bogaerts has just one home run since returning, and his flyball rate fell from 46.7% in May to 28.6% in July. That means the shoulder might still not allow him to get the lift on the ball he wants. Whether by injury or just regression from luck, a slide back down is inevitable for Bogaerts.
Sticking with the last month’s worth of data, another player that stands out is Lowe. Even with all the roster turnover happening around him, Lowe has been a dominant force with his bat. He is top-25 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and weighted on-base average in the last 30 days. He is walking 10% of the time and has dropped his strikeout rate from 25% to 21%.
However, a couple of things stand out. First, Lowe’s .415 BABIP is the 11th-highest mark in the league and is driving the .347 batting average in his last 21 games. Second, he somehow accumulated all this success in July and early August with his line-drive rate and flyball rate going down. His line-drive rate dropped from 24% to 20% in July. The flyball rate fell to 44% while being 50% in June. Those two things don’t typically compute and portend a drop coming in some of his recently elite statistics.
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