Last week, we asked our Featured Pros experts for their favorite sleeper picks in fantasy football drafts this season. This week, we’re taking things in the other direction. Winning your fantasy draft comes down to selecting the guys returning a positive ROI relative to their draft cost. However, avoiding those who will return a negative ROI is equally essential. What’s great is that once you get to the middle and late rounds, you don’t need to hit on every player (or even half of them) to wind up with a league-winning squad. You just need to be right enough so that your picks’ value is greater than that of your competition. That’s where avoiding the fantasy football busts becomes important.
To help you navigate around these landmines, we have polled 50+ experts on who the biggest busts are at every position in half-PPR heading into the new season. Check out who they chose below.
Now’s the time to try your new secret weapon for your draft: Draft Intel! Draft Intel analyzes up to 5 years of drafts and breaks down all your league-mates’ draft tendencies. See who waits at quarterback, how people approach the early rounds, and tons more insights to get an edge in your draft. Best of all, it’s totally FREE! Check out your league’s Draft Intel today!
Last week, we asked our Featured Pros experts for their favorite sleeper picks in fantasy football drafts this season. This week, we’re taking things in the other direction. Winning your fantasy draft comes down to selecting the guys returning a positive ROI relative to their draft cost. However, avoiding those who will return a negative ROI is equally essential. What’s great is that once you get to the middle and late rounds, you don’t need to hit on every player (or even half of them) to wind up with a league-winning squad. You just need to be right enough so that your picks’ value is greater than that of your competition. That’s where avoiding the fantasy football busts becomes important.
To help you navigate around these landmines, we have polled 50+ experts on who the biggest busts are at every position in half-PPR heading into the new season. Check out who they chose below.
Now’s the time to try your new secret weapon for your draft: Draft Intel! Draft Intel analyzes up to 5 years of drafts and breaks down all your league-mates’ draft tendencies. See who waits at quarterback, how people approach the early rounds, and tons more insights to get an edge in your draft. Best of all, it’s totally FREE! Check out your league’s Draft Intel today!
“This is going to sound like a recording because I’ve been saying it all offseason, but Kyren Williams is going to be a bust at his current cost of RB7 and 17th overall. My issue with Williams has never been his talent, although I believe he was more of a volume-based breakout as opposed to an efficient and electric back. Therein lies the first problem of Williams. Cooper Kupp will be ready to go in Week 1, and Kupp figures to see a healthy dose of targets that are going to dramatically increase the overall volume for Williams. The second issue for Williams is his lack of NFL Draft capital. He was a Day 3 pick that the Rams had little invested in, and he only got a shot at the starting job because the Rams ran out of healthy bodies. The Rams then used a second-round pick on Blake Corum in this year’s draft. This would make it very likely that he is unlikely to repeat his insane level of volume from 2023. Kupp will cap his receiving upside, and Corum will eat into his rushing touches. Williams should still be a productive fantasy player, but he is being drafted well above his ceiling. Drafting Kyren Williams at his current cost ensures that you are going to lose value, with a break-even situation being your best-case scenario.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)
“I came into the season targeting Kyren Williams, but the punt returner news is a red flag that is the last straw for me. Teams don’t use their bellcow RBs in this role, so this indicates that Blake Corum will have a larger immediate role than expected. I view Kyren in the Rachaad White/James Cook range of RBs right now — players with concerns over their job security.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)
“In the context of ADP, I can make a strong case for Travis Kelce, but with the news of Kyren Williams being named the punt returner for the Rams, I don’t see how he comes close to returning second-round value. Even before this, the Rams spent a third-round pick on Blake Corum, which was giving me some pause when clicking on Williams in drafts. Now that Williams is getting the Antonio Gibson treatment, there is non-zero chance he isn’t even the starter come Week 1. It’s an odd turn of events for Sean McVay, who typically favors a workhorse back, but evidently, he isn’t as enamored with Williams as previously thought. ”
– Jason Kamlowsky (FantasyPros)
“De’Von Achane going in the second round of most drafts makes absolutely no sense at all. Raheem Mostert is by all accounts the clear starter and will get the vast majority of red zone carries. Even if Mostert goes down, we know the Dolphins will bring in another back or two and keep it as a committee. Jaylen Wright profiles similarly to Mostert and cost the Dolphins a 2025 3rd rounder. He’ll be used heavily if Mostert goes down. There’s a seriously low weekly floor for Achane, and his ceiling is still limited even if the Dolphins remain one of the best offensive teams in football.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)
“Rachaad White has averaged a paltry 3.7 yards per carry in his two NFL seasons. Not good. White’s high ranking on draft boards comes from opportunity as opposed to performance. Incoming rookie Bucky Irving lurks, and would not be surprised to see Irving overtake White as the Bucs’ lead RB during the season.”
– Neema Hodjat (Real GM)
“Rachaad White, RB, Bucs: Bucky Irving arrived in Round 4, but I’m high on his ability to contribute in year one. It might not be right away. But his performance this preseason — and comments from HC Todd Bowles — suggest Irving should eventually see early-down work.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“James Cook (Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Ranking RB 13 / Ringo’s Ranking RB 24) – James Cook is really talented, but the situation he’s in is less than ideal. Despite his talent, Cook is undersized. He loses too many TDs to Josh Allen near the goal line. Last season, in 19 games (regular season and playoffs), Cook scored a paltry two rushing TDs! In addition, Allen’s athleticism hurts Cook’s reception potential since Allen is elusive enough to escape when under duress. With a current consensus ranking at RB 14, Ringo thinks drafters will get burned if they draft Cook at his 2024 price tag because the “steaks” are too high. I’ll see myself out now, haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
“James Cook, to me, feels like a massive case of not seeing the red flags on a player. He’s going as RB13 in half-PPR leagues, which would normally be fine due to the scarcity of the position… if there weren’t multiple options going after him who are in better situations and have just as much talent. Cook’s major red flag comes from usage inside the red zone (he only had 29 red zone carries in 2023), but he has also shown issues with ball security in the past as well. With Josh Allen still taking plenty of carries and now 2024 draft pick Ray Davis (who is a bowling ball of a back) in the mix as well, Cook’s margin of error drops sharply and may see more of a split.”
– Sam Wagman (The Game Day)
“James Cook is sitting at an ADP of RB13 and coming off the board in round 3. He embraced a perfect situation in 2023 with the Bills failing to identify a complimentary option and returned an RB11 overall season. But his per-game numbers at RB19, despite the ideal scenario, scream a problem. Rookie Ray Davis will be a solid support piece and cause Cook to fall short of his ADP expectations.”
– Jeff Bell (Footballguys)
“Patriots’ running back Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t likely to repeat the same success he had for parts of last season throughout the 2024 season. With a QB battle likely in place, the Patriots look like a team that is going to struggle to score for most of the season, which naturally limits the ceiling of any running back. New England also added pass-catching specialist Antonio Gibson in the offseason, which will limit the targets that inflated Stevenson’s stats in previous years. Stevenson’s talent will lead to occasional spike weeks, but he looks to be an inconsistent option and could hurt your team by being drafted at the RB20 spot.”
– Brett Tomlinson (FantasyPros)
“D’Andre Swift – Miles Sanders ranked fifth among regular running backs with 2.78 yards before contact per attempt in 2022. But when he left the Eagles for the Panthers in 2023, he saw his yards before contact halved to 1.36 yards and cratered statistically. Swift enjoyed 2.61 yards before contact per attempt with the Eagles in 2023, the second-highest rate at the position. And there is a risk that he will suffer the losses of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offensive line with the Bears in 2024.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)
“D’Andre Swift. The Bears deployed a committee last season and could easily do so again in 2024. After monster games in Weeks 2 & 3, he proceeded to average only 16.8 touches and 72.4 total yards the rest of the season as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. Don’t be surprised if Swift is this year’s Miles Sanders.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Josh Jacobs was a huge bust in 2023, but fantasy managers have high expectations for him again in 2024 as he leaves Las Vegas and heads to Green Bay. The Packers have a much better offense than the Raiders, so Jacobs’ situation is better, but is he any better than he was one year ago? In 2022, he was phenomenal, rushing for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he managed just 805 yards and 3.5 yards per carry last season. Last year, he only rushed for 100 yards twice, and while you can blame the offense, great running backs find a way to make the most of their opportunities. The Packers were 14th in rushing yards per game a season ago, and in what could be a very crowded backfield, there aren’t going to be enough carries to make Jacobs an RB1.”
– Phil Wood (Bet On Phil Wood)
“Josh Jacobs had the lowest yards per carry of any RB with 200+ rushes in 2023. He ranked in the BOTTOM 5 in Yards Before Contact, Yards After Contact, Broken Tackle%, and Evasion%. He also ranked RB56 in Fantasy Points/Touch last season. GB just drafted stud rookie MarShawn Lloyd as well. Jacobs will not return an RB1 draft cost.”
– Joe Orrico (No Expert Fantasy Football)
“I believe Zack Moss will be this year’s biggest fantasy bust. He showed flashes of fantasy goodness last season, but heading into his 5th season, is he now going to be a top-25 fantasy RB? I don’t think so. I think Chase Brown will end up as the back-to-own in Cincinnati, and Moss will end up finishing outside the top 40 RBs for the 4th time in his career.”
– Shawn Gill (Super Fantasy Bros)
“Zack Moss. A four-week surge by Moss at the start of the 2023 season while Jonathan Taylor was on IR (and in Taylor’s first game back, when the Colts used him lightly) has convinced a lot of fantasy managers that Moss is a good investment for 2024. It’s worth remembering that Devin Singletary dramatically out-snapped and out-touched Moss in Buffalo for three straight seasons and that Moss averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year from Week 6 on. Chase Brown is younger, faster, and a better pass catcher. Moss is destined to disappoint his stakeholders in 2024.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Sadly, since Jonathan Taylor was the RB1 in 2021, he’s had two injury-plagued seasons, missing 13 contests. Taylor’s efficiency and touchdown production has also dipped. Paired with hyper-athletic quarterback Anthony Richardson, Taylor’s rushing touchdown potential is threatened by Richardson. Moreover, Taylor already had unimpressive receiving chops, and Richardson’s ability to scramble reduces his need to check down to Taylor. As a result, Taylor has more downside than upside at his ADP.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
“Najee Harris – We just watched Bijan Robinson finish as RB17 in PPG with a heavily shared backfield under Arthur Smith’s watch. Drafting a worse RB, in a messier timeshare, in a bad offense, as a top 24 RB selection is not my idea of a league-winning pick. I’m guessing most Najee teams will look back at the draft by week 8, imagining how good their team could’ve been had they taken one of the many better options around Najee instead.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
“RB Nick Chubb is too big a risk at his current RB32 ADP. He starts the season on the PUP as he recovers from knee surgery, and there are reports that he may not even begin practicing until late October. The Browns also have the 7th-toughest strength of schedule for RBs this year, according to PFF. With his availability for at least the first half of the fantasy regular season in question and a slow ramp-up of carries expected for when he does return, Chubb is unlikely to return top-36 RB value for fantasy managers in 2024.”
– Dan Larocca (RotoBaller)
“I think we need to temper expectations for Zamir White in 2024. Once Josh Jacobs was injured, White finished the last four games of the 2023 season as the RB8 (.5ppr), averaging 23.3 touches and 114.3 yards per game, for a 44.4% touch share and that’s elite usage, but will it remain with the new OC Luke Getsy? Since becoming an OC, no running back has averaged over a 30.1% touch share (David Montgomery), and Getsy’s fingerprints are all over the running back usage in the preseason. Alexander Mattison played every third drive in the preseason and got the passing-down work! White doesn’t profile as a pass-catcher, only recording 15 receptions on 269 total snaps, and for a team with a projected win total of 6.5 wins, I can’t forecast the necessary volume for White to meet his ADP of RB22.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (Armchair Scouting)
“Puka Nacua is a tremendous talent with a very safe floor, but selecting his name at the turn in a 12-team draft is just not something I find myself capable of doing. In the 11 games last season in which Cooper Kupp stayed healthy the entire game, Kupp had more receiving yards in five of those games and two more total TDs. If I am drafting a WR in round 1 or early round 2, I want him to be the undisputed number-one receiver on that team, which you cannot say about Puka.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)
“Puka Nacua, this is 100% based on him currently being the WR8 in consensus rankings. We talked to Joudan Rodrigue, and she mentioned that Cooper Kupp is 100% back and feels like he has something to prove. Matthew Stafford has shown he’s more than capable of supporting multiple high-end receiving options as well. Personally I see Nacua as a top 20 WR, not a top 8 based off of expected volume.”
– Matt Olson (32 Beat Writers)
“Stefon Diggs is going to be the biggest bust this year. What exactly is his path to stardom? Provided that Nico Collins and Tank Dell both stay healthy for most of the season, Diggs is going to be, at best, a boom-or-bust receiver on a week-to-week basis. And that’s assuming that he hasn’t hit the age cliff, which, to be honest, he probably has. There’s no reason that he should be going above younger and more promising players like Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, George Pickens, Rashee Rice, etc.”
– Leo Sells (Couch Report Sports)
“Stefon Diggs has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I would consider giving the veteran another chance in 2024 if he was still Josh Allen‘s No. 1 wide receiver. However, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from last year in Houston, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell healthy. There are several wide receivers with a later ADP than Diggs that I would draft ahead of him, including Malik Nabers, Amari Cooper, Tee Higgins, Christian Kirk, and Chris Godwin.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“Brandon Aiyuk is going to be behind the 8-ball when it comes to ramping up for the 2024 season. If and when he signs with the San Francisco 49ers (or another team), he’s not going to be prepared to handle real NFL action right out of the gate. He could have a late season surge to save his season, but most likely, the limited prep time and his slow start will make him a bust when it comes to fantasy football.”
– Amar Desai (Sports Aldente)
“I’ve been high on Brandon Aiyuk all offseason, but with his hold-in and not practicing with the team, he is setting himself up for failure. Not only is it likely that he will end up in the Shanahan dog-house, but it is also likely that he will suffer a soft-tissue injury early in the season if he even plays. ”
– Kev Wheeler (Wheel Route FF)
“Drake London, WR, ATL – I am getting the “Peacock” feeling about London and people pushing him up rankings. London has yet to average even 11 PPR Fantasy Points per game but is currently the WR11 by ECR. Last year, the WR11 averaged almost 17 PPR Fantasy Points per game. You could add 30 catches, 300 yards, and six touchdowns to London’s 2023 and still not reach that level. A “bust” is built upon drafting someone at their ceiling, and London is currently ranked above his ceiling.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
“We all agree that Drake London’s stats will progress this year with the Falcons’ addition of Kirk Cousins, but not to WR1 numbers. London’s current ADP is around 21, as the WR10 in Standard and WR11 in PPR leagues. Last year, Drake London was ranked 122nd among pass catchers in YAC, and you can’t blame that on bad quarterback play. A more realistic finish is at the back half of the WR2s, or worse, who are being drafted anywhere from the end of the 3rd to 4th round. It is probably best to let someone else take London, and if you want a piece of Atlanta’s passing game, you can always grab Kyle Pitts in the 6th or 7th round.”
– Josh Hall (IDP Army)
“Drake London has never finished a season as a top-30 WR in PPR scoring or top-35 in half-PPR. He had just three games with more than 80 yards in 2023. A new head coach and QB should move the dial in the right direction for London, but not enough to justify a second-round price tag. His current ADP (17th overall) is assuming he smashes a ceiling we have yet to see (career avg 10.7 PPG). This one has ‘bust’ written all over it. ”
– Tim Brosnan (Tim’s Fantasy Tips)
“Marvin Harrison Jr. – This pains me to write because Harrison is going to be a really good wide receiver in the league for a long time, and I’m rooting for him. But the expectations for him this year in fantasy football are wild. Vegas odds have him around 82 catches for 1,000 receiving yards and 6-7 touchdowns, which would be a great rookie year. However, I don’t know if that will be enough production for where he is currently going in drafts.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)
“Marvin Harrison Jr. for me. Everyone seems to think he’s the next Justin Jefferson. That may be the case in a year or two, but let’s pump the brakes for this season. He’ll get his fair share of targets, but he’s going too high in drafts. For 2024, I’d rather take wide receivers like Drake London, Mike Evans, and Jaylen Waddle. All of which are being drafted after Harrison Jr.”
– Bob Miller (Dynasty Pros)
“Marvin Harrison Jr. – MHJ is currently the consensus WR9 and is being drafted close to the 1/2 turn in PPR drafts. While I appreciate his talent, the expectations are too high. To give some context, Puka Nacua set rookie receiving records last season and ended up as the WR7 per game. Harrison Jr. would need to have the best rookie season of all time to justify his current draft position, and I don’t see that happening. ”
– Lee Wehry (FantasyPros)
“Marvin Harrison Jr. – I have sky-high expectations for Harrison’s career, but his fantasy hype may have gotten a little out of control for his rookie year. For starters, Kyler Murray‘s health is a risk – he’s missed 15 games over the last two years. Harrison also still needs some development in his game. Based on route-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, his catch rate was 1.4% below expected last year. He makes spectacular plays look easy, but he’ll still make some mistakes on the easy ones.”
– Ryan McCrystal (Sharp Football Analysis)
“Nico Collins finished as the WR11 in 2023 with an extremely efficient season for a wideout. Despite having just 109 targets, he caught 73% of those targets at 11.9 yards per target for a final stat line of 80/1,297/8. That is a fantastic stat line for only having 109 targets. However, over the past decade, ZERO wide receivers getting 100+ targets have repeated a 70%+ catch percentage on 10 yards per target rate in back-to-back seasons. In fact, the only wide receivers to do it more than once in that timeframe are Tyreek Hill & Cooper Kupp. Establishing the fact that he is unlikely to repeat his efficiency from last year, we must look to an uptick in opportunity, i.e., more targets. This is another area of concern I have for Collins. Tank Dell is returning healthy after missing the last six games of the season. During that Week 13-on stretch with Dell out, Collins was tied for WR4 in PPR points per game compared to WR15 with Tank. Finally, the addition of Stefon Diggs and his 28% target share over the past four seasons leaves room for doubt that Collins’ target share (23% in 2023) will increase in 2024. In fact, there’s a good argument to be made it could decrease. For these reasons, I am out on Nico Collins at ADP for the 2024 season.”
– Robby Jeffries (The Fantasy Authority)
“Deebo Samuel is currently being drafted as the WR13 off of the board per ADP. The current ECR has him at WR14. As of now, Brandon Aiyuk is still on the roster and is still the #1 WR on the team. Deebo has struggled to stay healthy and offer consistent play over the last two seasons. Deebo’s breakout season was before Christian McCaffrey came to town, and his usage has changed since. He is being over-drafted right now because of the Aiyuk situation and is going to disappoint.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
“Cooper Kupp faced injury challenges in 2023, impacting his performance, particularly with a career-low yards per route run. Despite maintaining a 26% target share, he finished as WR27 in points per game despite TD-boosted production. In the games that Kupp was healthy alongside Puka Nacua, Kupp averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game with five receiving TDs. He went over 100 yards four times but was held under 55 receiving yards in his eight other games. At 31 years old in 2024, concerns linger regarding Kupp’s ability to return to peak form. In addition to poor yards per route run, Kupp posted the worst YAC/reception of his career (5.3). Get out before things get worse for an aging Kupp. He’s missed an average of six games over the last two seasons. Many are forgiving Kupp now that he seems healthy for this upcoming season. We’ve been down this road with Michael Thomas for years; once the milk is spoiled, it doesn’t unspoil. Kupp’s ADP is 33rd overall (WR16), ahead of WRs such as Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr., Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, and Stefon Diggs.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Garrett Wilson – The Jets have passed above league average rate every year he’s been there, padding his target total stats, including a lot of missed time from their stud RB Breece Hall. Now add Rodgers, who runs plays at one of the slowest paces in the league (fewer plays = fewer opportunities for fantasy points), and bake in his likely decline in performance as he nears retirement age. THEN they added a TD and redzone threat WR in Big Mike, my sleeper of the year. They also have that elite defense ranked 1st overall by many rankers I trust, meaning they shouldn’t be in many shootouts. Slow pace, lower pass rate, low shootouts, questionable QB play, and increased target and TD competition all make Garrett Wilson a massive overpay at cost.”
– David Zach (FantasyPros)
“In the high-stakes drafts I have participated in recently, Keon Coleman is coming off the board in the seventh or eighth round, meaning he is going in the same range as Calvin Ridley, Diontae Johnson, and Keenan Allen. All three receivers are capable of 80-90 catches, 1,000-plus yards, and at least 5-6 touchdowns (or have enjoyed that level of production in their recent past). At best, Coleman is probably the fourth-best option on his own team for targets – behind Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and James Cook or Curtis Samuel. Coleman predictably struggled with separation in the preseason, so he is unlikely to be a high-volume target anyway. He likely needs very good touchdown luck to be anything more than a WR5 in fantasy this season.”
– Doug Orth (FFToday)
“Malik Nabers is being drafted at his ceiling but will be heavily brought down by his quarterback play. Daniel Jones has a long history of spreading the ball out incredibly evenly among his receivers despite any talent differences. The highest target share percentage we have seen from Jones is Wandale Robinson last year with 17.2 percent, which ranked below Jerry Jeudy and Romeo Doubs with Christian Watson playing. The passing volume on this offense will not be enough to help, and Daniel Jones has never had more than 15 touchdowns passing in a year in the last four years.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
“CJ Stroud – His ADP is too high. When there are so many options at low cost in your draft, don’t overreach for Stroud. He doesn’t have a Konami Code, and you would depend entirely on the pass yards and touchdowns. ”
– Alejandro Orellana (Estadio Fantasy)
“Anthony Richardson has really worried me in what I’ve seen from him in the preseason. He missed the majority of last season with a knee injury, so he didn’t get a chance to really acclimate to the league. Now that he’s getting a second chance to do that, he looks rusty. If it’s not rust, it’s a lack of talent, which is even more worrisome. I get the allure of him in fantasy due to his potential rushing ability. I just worry that they focus too much on that ceiling and not enough on his floor, which is lower than most are willing to admit.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
“Josh Allen is tremendously talented, but I don’t like having to draft him so early. Fifteen rushing TDs don’t seem to be repeatable, and he just lost his WR1 (Stefon Diggs). I’m projecting him as more of a 5th or 6th round value than a 3rd.”
– Dr. Roto (FullTime Fantasy)
“It is very possible that the Buffalo Bills offense is more consistent and efficient under Joe Brady and with the offseason personnel changes while Josh Allen’s fantasy ceiling is capped more than most drafters expect. A high rush rate, a matriculation-style approach, and Ray Davis lightening the load on Allen’s rushing, especially near the goal line, can very plausibly combine to make the opportunity cost of taking the superstar quarterback at his current ADP simply too high. Drafter may want to opt for Anthony Richardson (higher ceiling) or Kyler Murray (clearly better value), or build their rosters differently and wait on the position and select options like Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, or high-upside rookies like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Allen will still produce very well, but “busts” are largely about failing to meet the production expectations we have for the player’s price, and that is why I chose Allen.”
– Brian Ford (Going For 2)
“After an offseason in which the Buffalo Bills lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Josh Allen is not going to continue his fantasy dominance. I understand Keon Coleman is a solid addition to the offense, but he has not proven himself yet. We can argue that Allen’s rushing upside is what is keeping him afloat, but in my opinion, running the ball is not going to make up the points for the lost talent at the receiver position. Allen’s ADP should not be this high due to these circumstances. There are other players that have better weapons than he does, like Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, and C.J. Stroud, who are more attractive options for the quarterback position of your fantasy team.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)
“Jalen Hurts is the standout name on my list of expected fantasy busts this season. And don’t get me wrong: Jalen Hurts, the player, is still excellent. But with a capable all-down workhorse RB with size now in town in Saquon Barkley and the loss of all-pro center Jason Kelce to retirement, the days of the tush push are already numbered. Hurts losing some of those rushing TDs would crush his fantasy production, but there’s also another potential path to bust city. The Eagles’ defense, and especially their secondary, are much improved this offseason. This should lead to less of a need to pass the rock. New OC Kellan Moore will have the opportunity to lean on the running game, which could further limit Hurts’ passing totals. With the potential for fewer rushing TDs AND fewer passing yards, Hurts is a risky bet as the consensus QB2 off the board.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
“Jordan Love, I think we see a massive step backward. More teams will have him more appropriately scouted and prepared. Money talks, and he has a lot of it paving the way for him not needing to play better for a new contract. Without a true alpha WR, I think he’ll struggle to find his go-to guy.”
– Adam Stark (Everyday Fantasy Football)
“Caleb Williams at QB13 seems like a bust just waiting to happen. Sure, he has all sorts of talent around him, and we could make the case for how he could come into the league and take the world by storm. And obviously, if he was in Green Bay, he’d be wildly underrated and an MVP candidate by November. (I might be a bitter fan of a different NFC North team.) But he is not. He is the new Chicago Bears quarterback, the best of whom, in the franchise’s 104-year history, is Jay Cutler. Next year? Maybe. But not in 2024.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
“David Njoku is going to be one of the biggest busts in 2024. Fantasy managers all remember how last year ended for Njoku; in the last four weeks, he finished no worse than the TE3 while recording at least six catches in all of those contests and having at least 90 yards in three of those four matchups as well. That was all with Joe Flacco, not Deshaun Watson. Further examining the Njoku splits between time spent with other QBs versus time spent with Flacco in 2023, there is a near 40 yards per game difference for Njoku’s receiving stats. Njoku being near, but below Jake Ferguson and above Brock Bowers in half PPR ADP is astonishing. Stay well clear of Njoku for 2024.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Trey McBride. The Cardinals are entering the season with an improvement at WR. The lack of a true WR1 in Arizona last season paved the way for Trey McBride to average 8+ targets per week when Kyler Murray re-entered the lineup. I don’t think McBride will be bad, but I don’t think he’ll be getting the same volume that made him elite last season.”
– Kyle Krajewski (First Seed Sports)
“Considering tight ends often take a year or two to produce in the NFL, Sam LaPorta had an amazing rookie season. But he is now being drafted as though he is definitely going to do it again this year, and touchdown regression feels likely. I don’t want to count on 120 targets and double-digit touchdowns from him again, especially with several other TEs who could be a top-3 fantasy finisher at the position this year.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)
“What has Kyle Pitts done to be TE6? He came into the league with lofty expectations, and other than the low TD production, his rookie year looked like that was the case. His last two seasons haven’t been anything spectacular, but everyone is back on the Pitts wagon with the arrival of Kurt Cousins. Pitts is currently being drafted ahead of Evan Engram (143 targets in 2023), Jason Furgeson (102 targets in 2023), and George Kittle (San Francisco TD machine)! Love for Pitts is abounding, but avoid that trap when there are other TEs later in the draft that can get 500ish yards and 3-5 TDs.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
