Who’s it going to be? Who’s going to ascend from that Flex spot and become a fantasy football league winner? Finding diamonds in the rough is my favorite part of fantasy football. I’m the same kid who asked for a Hank Baskett jersey for the holidays. Fortunately, the potential breakouts listed below are already way better than Baskett ever was. Sorry, man. I still rock with you. Jason Avant, too. Here are four fantasy football breakout candidates to draft at the wide receiver position.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Breakout Wide Receivers
Joshua Palmer (WR – LAC)
Joshua Palmer was on his way to a breakout season before getting injured in Week 8 against the Bears. He’d just strung together four straight 60+ yard games, capped off with a 133-yard performance against the Chiefs. By the time Palmer returned in Week 15, Easton Stick was the starter and the Chargers had nothing left to play for. Palmer became the No. 1 WR thanks to injuries to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He received 7.6 targets per game and totaled 204 yards in three appearances with Stick.
Despite the injuries and the quarterback situation, Palmer showed clear signs of development in his third year. His yards per reception took an incredible leap from 10.7 to 15.3. He also recorded career-highs in average depth of target/aDOT (11.4), first down rate (57.8%) yards per game (58.1) and yards after contact per reception (5.2).
Palmer solidified himself as a dangerous deep threat. Three receptions of 50+ yards ranked third in the league. If he played all 17 games, there’s a good chance he’d tie the league leaders Amari Cooper and Tyreek Hill. This is a promising evolution from a receiver previously thought of as mostly a possession type.
Palmer enters the 2024 season as a top-two target alongside Ladd McConkey. John Harbaugh’s history indicates he will run the ball often, but I can’t imagine any coach relegating Justin Herbert’s arm to second choice. The real concern is Herbert’s health. He recently suffered a plantar fascia injury, which could unfortunately linger depending on the severity. Palmer has turned himself into a well-rounded player who excels as both a field stretcher and a chain-mover. He’s a great bargain as WR60 on Sleeper’s average draft position (ADP).
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF)
The Khalil Shakir drumbeat grows louder by the day. The former fifth-round pick out of Boise State was efficient and versatile in his limited usage last year. Shakir posted a stat line of 39 receptions, 45 targets, 611 yards and two touchdowns.
His 86.7% catch rate led all wide receivers. Running backs with low aDOTs typically occupy that upper echelon. For reference, Rachaad White led the league with a 91.4% catch rate, but his aDOT was -0.5. Shakir’s was 8.9. A catch rate at that depth is rare, and the Bills can depend on Shakir to keep the chains moving, as 66.7% of his receptions went for first downs in 2023. He also didn’t have a single drop.
Shakir was third in the league in yards after the catch per reception (7.2), placing behind Deebo Samuel (8.8) and Rashee Rice (8.3). Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Shakir also finished third in yards after the catch (YAC) above expected (3.0). He has the makings of a premier runner after the catch.
Shakir’s yards/reception (15.7) indicate some explosive play ability. Ten percent of his catches went for 30+ yards in 2023. He’s also an exceptional separator. He averaged 3.5 yards of separation on his routes in 2023, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Shakir has an immense opportunity to cement himself as one of Josh Allen’s guys. Allen posted a league-high 141.5 rating when targeting Shakir last year, so it’s fair to say he’s almost there.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
We can rebuild him. We have the technology. Hamstring injuries have plagued Christian Watson’s career and have hampered his development. He’s played in 23 out of a possible 34 games in his first two seasons. Over the summer he underwent testing at the University of Wisconsin. They identified a 20% asymmetry between the muscle mass in his legs, which Watson has reduced to roughly 10%. Hopefully, that’s enough to keep him on the field in 2024.
While the Packers’ receiving room is crowded, Watson’s freak athleticism and deep ball ability offer the team something the other receivers can’t. Per Reception Perception, his success on the nine route (61.5%) is higher than Jayden Reed’s (50%), Dontayvion Wicks’ (41.2%) and Romeo Doubs’ (51.1% from 2022). He is the de facto deep threat in this extremely promising young offense.
The Packers also use Watson as a red zone threat. Thirteen of his 53 targets (24.5%) came in the red zone last year. Also, he produced five touchdowns on 28 receptions. This rate is almost identical to his seven-touchdown, 41-reception rookie season. Strangely, Watson only had one fewer receiving touchdown than Puka Nacua last year. A consistent touchdown earner buoys any fantasy team. If Watson manages even 70 receptions, a 17% touchdown rate would make for roughly 12 touchdowns.
Watson gave us a peek into his immense ceiling during his rookie year when he finished as a top-10 receiver in Weeks 10 through 13. We got another glimpse last year in the final two weeks he played before the Packers shut him down for the season. In Weeks 11 and 12 he totaled 12 receptions, 16 targets, 165 yards and three touchdowns.
Rashid Shaheed (WR – NO)
Rashid Shaheed has been a bright spot in an otherwise stagnant offense. Klint Kubiak figures to implement a more modern, explosive scheme that takes advantage of Shaheed’s traits. Kubiak was San Francisco’s passing game coordinator last year when the 49ers led the league in receptions of 20+ and 40+ yards. This bodes well for the speedy receiver.
Shaheed excels as a vertical threat. He caught 12 20+ yard receptions and ranked third in the league with seven 40+ yard receptions. This means that 15.2% of his receptions went for 40+ yards. These explosive plays turn into touchdowns, as Shaheed posted five on the year. He also returned a punt for a touchdown in Week 3 against the Packers.
The Saints spammed Shaheed nine routes last year. Per Reception Perception, he ran the nine on 20% of his routes. This heavy volume makes his 66% success rate even more impressive. His Reception Perception chart also shows he excels at in-breaking routes and working over the middle of the field. He’s more than a one-trick pony. He’s a nuanced route runner who excels at beating press coverage and busting through the cushion. He’s also a better contested catcher than his 6-foot-1, 180-pound frame might suggest. Just ask the Texans
Shaheed’s production came in bunches last year. He produced over 60 yards in only six games, and all five of his receiving touchdowns came in these games. Thanks to Kubiak, the Saints are a great candidate to increase their overall offensive production. Shaheed figures to play an important role in this offense’s evolution as its No. 2 passing option. Hopefully, this translates to more steady production.
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