Hitting big on middle and late-round running backs often drives fantasy success. Who will go from irrelevancy to your Flex spot? Who will go from your Flex spot to stardom? Each year a few players take that next step in their careers. Predicting these hits is a tricky game. Last offseason people thought Cam Akers finally had the starting role for the Rams.

Home runs like Kyren Williams only come around once every few years. The truth is that a lot of it is just taking a swing and getting on base. Below are middle and late-round running backs that have the potential and opportunity to break out in 2024.

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5 Breakout Running Backs

Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN)

Tyjae Spears may only have one ACL, but I’m doubling down on him for the 2024 season. Spears was a productive rookie in an unproductive offense (17.9 points per game). The explosive third-round pick out of Tulane totaled 1,108 yards from scrimmage. That isn’t too far off from Derrick Henry’s 1,381 yards. Spears took advantage of his part-time role, rushing 100 times for 453 yards and two touchdowns. His yards per carry (4.5) was bigger than Henry’s (4.2). Spears also excelled as a receiving back. He finished with the 11th-most receptions for a running back (52), producing 385 yards and one touchdown. 

Spears ended his rookie season with his most productive game. The Titans only gave him six touches, but he totaled 66 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars. A mix of vision, contact balance and lateral agility make Spears an elusive runner. He forced 26 missed tackles on 100 carries. He also ran for 10+ yards on 13 of his carries.

Spears was promoted to co-starter alongside Tony Pollard. While it’s not a bell-cow role, Spears projects to earn a significantly higher share of rushing attempts than he did last year. The Titans revamped their offense this offseason. Brian Callahan comes in as a respected offensive mind. They signed Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to take some pressure off the run game. And they invested in their offensive line with seventh overall pick JC Latham and $50,000,000 man Lloyd Cushenberry.

Pollard looked vulnerable in 2023. The leg injury hampered him for most of the season, sapping the explosivity that made him a highly sought-after RB1. Spears has the chance to cement himself as the more athletic, elusive running back in this new-look offense.

Zamir White (RB – LV)

Volume is king. All hale Zeus. The Las Vegas Raiders have appointed Zamir White as their next workhorse running back. He finished the 2023 season with 104 rushes, 451 yards and one touchdown. Eighty-four of these attempts came in the final four games. He averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per attempt (YPA) over this stretch. This dwarfs Josh Jacobs’ measly 3.5 YPA on 233 carries. Antonio Pierce loves White and will comfortably give him around 20 looks per game in 2024. Keep in mind Jacobs was second in the league in attempts per game with 17.92. 

White has the size to operate as a bell-cow, standing at six feet and weighing 215 pounds. His running style is decisive and physical. He isn’t the most creative runner, but he hits the hole with conviction and has enough speed (4.40-second 40-yard dash) to break off the occasional big play. He broke eight tackles in 2023, which is only two fewer than Josh Jacobs on 129 fewer carries.

White averaged 14.55 fantasy points per game (PPF) in half-PPR formats over this four-game stretch. That extrapolates to a top-five finish within last year’s rankings. I don’t expect White to finish that high, but he’s certainly in store for a top half year. Dylan Laube, my fellow UNH Wildcat, is the only other interesting running back here. He fits more into the Ameer Abdullah receiving back role and won’t eat into White’s playing time. Draft White without hesitation. 

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)

Jaylen Warren may have broken out last year, but there’s a good chance he will break out again. A breakout on top of a breakout. Warren finished as the fantasy RB25 while only having four games with 10+ carries. He was an extremely efficient runner, turning 149 attempts into 784 yards and four touchdowns. His 5.3 YPA is second in the league (among running backs with 140+ carries) to Christian McCaffrey. The Steelers consistently utilized Warren in the passing game, peppering him with 61 receptions that he took for 370 yards. Pittsburgh fans love Warren. It’s easy to see why. The 5-foot-8, 215-pound muscle hamster runs with a powerful blend of agility and physicality. He’s just as likely to juke defenders out of their cleats as he is to pop them in the mouth with a stiff arm.

Warren’s underlying numbers indicate he can finish as a top half back if given enough opportunity. He led the league in missed tackles per touch and finished seventh in explosive run rate. He also ran for over 20 yards on six attempts. This matches Travis Etienne, who had over 100 more attempts than Warren. Warren also had a bone-crushing 27 broken tackles, which was third in the league among running backs.

Warren looks to continue this breakout with increased volume in 2024. He averaged 8.8 rush attempts and 3.6 receptions per game last year. The Steelers beefed up their suspect offensive line, investing in a tackle, a center and a guard in this year’s draft. This and the hiring of Arthur Smith indicate a commitment to the run game moving forward. The Steelers aren’t, however, committed to Najee Harris, having declined his fifth-year option. Warren has the chance to take charge of this backfield.

Jaleel McLaughlin (RB – DEN)

Jaleel McLaughlin was the Broncos’ best running back in 2023. The Youngstown State product went undrafted after setting the NCAA record for career rushing yards (8,166 yards). He remained productive but with limited volume during his rookie year. He finished as a top-10 RB in half the weeks he received at least seven carries. McLaughlin turned 76 attempts into 410 yards and one touchdown. His YPA was the same as McCaffrey’s (5.4). He also recorded 31 receptions for 160 yards and two touchdowns.

McLaughlin has a nose for explosive plays. His four 20+ yard runs and two 30+ yard runs rank far above running backs with a similar workload. The only one to beat him is Keaton Mitchell, who’d be on this list if not for the torn ACL. McLaughlin is a slippery, quick runner who navigates traffic well with his small frame. He finished fifth in forced missed tackles per attempt and fourth in yard after contact per attempt. 

The Broncos targeted running backs 150 times last year. That number should hold steady with Bo Nix, and Sean Payton historically likes having a shiftier receiving back. McLaughlin only saw 36 of these targets last year, but his productivity and dependability should earn him more reps in 2024. Samaje Perine is looking like a nonfactor and fellow small guy Blake Watson hasn’t been able to build momentum in training camp. McLaughlin, however, is enjoying another offseason of immaculate vibes. While he doesn’t have the stature to work as a bell cow, McLaughlin should see an overall uptick in his usage this year. 

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

The Bengals selected Illinois running back Chase Brown in the fifth round of last year’s draft. He was a workhorse in college and tested among the best at his position at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Some standout combine numbers:

• 25 reps on the bench
• 40” vertical
• 10’7” broad jump
• 4.43-second 40-yard dash

This makes for an elite 9.81 relative athletic score (RAS). The Bengals brought their athletic phenom along slowly, only trusting him with two carries total through Week 12. Forty-two of his 44 attempts came in the final six games of the season. He also caught 14 of his 15 targets for 156 yards and one touchdown. His impressive 11.1 yards per reception is boosted by his 54-yard catch and run against Indianapolis. 

Brown provides the Bengals with an explosive play threat. He finished with only one fewer 20+ yard rush than Joe Mixon, who had 213 more carries than Brown in 2023. Brown has a history of explosive plays. He had 48 10+ yard runs during his final year of college and forced a whopping 83 missed tackles.

Zack Moss projects to enter the year as the starter, but his spot atop the depth chart is tenuous. He’s never been more than a decent running back. This caliber of player is useful for gauging Brown’s ability. If he can’t beat out Moss, then we all wasted our time here. But he has the athletic tools and the big play ability to make a name for himself in Cincinnati. 

Conclusion

The list of potential breakouts doesn’t stop there. It never stops because an incredible player can come from anywhere. Rashaad Penny can all of a sudden win you the league in his fourth year. Arian Foster can go from a 257-yard rookie year to a 1,616-yard, 16-touchdown sophomore season. Throw a few darts. Roll over a couple of rocks. And be sure to look for when talent and opportunity meet.

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