As fantasy football season heats up, navigating the intricacies of Average Draft Position (ADP) becomes crucial for building a winning roster. With countless players vying for your attention, knowing whom to target and whom to avoid can make all the difference in your draft strategy. That’s why we turned to our team of expert analysts, the Featured Pros at FantasyPros, to provide you with valuable insights for the upcoming season.

In this article, the analysts break down the players making waves as must-have targets and those who may be overvalued at their current ADP. Read on to find out which players you should keep an eye on and which ones may be best left on the draft board!

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Players to Target at ADP

Who is a player you’re TARGETING in drafts based on his current ADP and why?

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

“Josh Jacobs declined from 2.08 yards before contact per attempt in his breakout 2022 season to 1.36 in 2023 behind a Day 3 rookie quarterback. Expect a bounce back on a Packers team that allowed 2.0 average yards before contact last year.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)

Tank Dell (WR – HOU)

“Don’t let the addition of Stefon Diggs sway you. Tank Dell is in for another strong season as his connection with C.J. Stroud continues to grow. To me, he is a steal at his current ADP (65), and I expect 1000+ receiving yards from him this season.”
– Justin Fuhr (Pro Football Mania)

“There was one wide receiver in 2023 who truly separated himself from the rest of his teammates in the second half of the regular season. One player who was the overall WR6 in fantasy points per game from weeks 9-17, just 0.4 points per game less than Mr. Tyreek ‘Cheetah’ Hill himself. One who enters a potential year two breakout season with one of the rising QB stars of this game in C.J. Stroud. Wait, did you think I was talking about Nico Collins? While I do love me some Nico this year in late round two or early round three, one of my favorite players to target at current ADP – or even ahead of current ADP in some cases – is none other than Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell.

It was Dell who outpaced Collins in fppg (16.4 to 14.0) in the second half of last season, and it’s Dell who now enters the 2024 season seemingly fully healthy after a bad leg injury cut his rookie campaign short. Sure, I have Nico projected slightly higher in total points and target share this season and expect Stefon Diggs to mix in as well, but Dell is the cheapest and most explosive of the trio, and you can get him right now at an ADP of 65 (WR29) in home-league drafts as a Round 6 pick according to FantasyPros ADP data from ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Sign me up every single day of the week.”
– Christopher Dell (Betting Predators)

Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)

“Joe Mixon at his ADP is just silly. The Texans are legit Super Bowl contenders, and Mixon is set to be their bellcow back. The Volume alone is enough to take the steady veteran in the second round. You are getting an RB1 at a sexy discount here.”
– Fantasy Football Goonz (Fantasy Football Goonz)

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)

“Kenneth Walker III is currently being drafted around the 45th pick. He is a strong running back on a team that loves to run and is coming off of a season with 900+ yards and eight touchdowns, all while battling nagging injuries throughout the year. Now that he is fully healthy, Walker is going to be a player who will be competing as an RB1 every week. If a fantasy owner can get an RB1 in the 4th round, that can be the difference between the post-season or the toilet bowl, making Kenneth Walker II a player all owners should snag up at pick 45!”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

Diontae Johnson (WR – CAR)

“Many will avoid drafting Diontae Johnson (WR37 in the ADP) after getting traded to the Panthers in the offseason. While Bryce Young struggled as a rookie, he made Adam Thielen a top-five wide receiver over the first six weeks last year. Meanwhile, Johnson had the 12th-highest yards per route run rate (3.21) against man coverage among wide receivers with at least 65 routes last season despite awful quarterback production (per Fantasy Points Data). Dave Canales recently said that the veteran will be the focal point of the team’s passing attack. The last time he had a competent quarterback (2021), Johnson was the WR8, averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While the veteran won’t be a WR1, Johnson should end the year in the WR2 range.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“I really like Diontae Johnson’s ADP in terms of value. Bryce Young and the Panthers had a disappointing season last year, yet Adam Thielen was still able to put up good enough numbers to make him the WR17 in PPR leagues. We can almost expect this as the floor for Diontae with an upgrade at head coach with Dave Canales, (hopefully) an improved Bryce Young with one season under his belt, and an aging Thielen as his main target competition. He’s currently getting drafted as the WR35 in PPR which could be a great value pick in your draft.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)

“Raheem Mostert at No. 70 is going to help a lot of people win their leagues. Sure, De’Von Achane is the flashy new flavor, but remember, boring picks are like vegetables: they might not be exciting, but they’re good for you. Mostert is the steady, reliable option who’s quietly going to outpace the hype. If you want a mid-round pick that won’t just sit on your bench collecting dust, Mostert’s your guy. Grab him now. Thank me when you’re holding the trophy.”
– Matt Gaines (League Tycoon)

Jerome Ford (RB – CLE)

“Give me Jerome Ford at an ADP of RB38. He will be the locked-in starter for at least the first six weeks of the season for a Browns running game that is traditionally very good. If and when Nick Chubb returns this season from a catastrophic injury, it’s doubtful that the 29-year-old back resumes a full workload. Ford will maintain RB2/Flex value all season, even if he is splitting touches with Chubb later in the year.”
– Blake Fincher (Fantasy Football Cafe)

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

“Chris Godwin is someone I target often. Since 2019 (His first full season), Godwin and Mike Evans are almost dead even in target share, snap share, total targets, total yards, AND red zone targets, but Evans has over twice as many TDs. Liam Coen is now the Offensive Coordinator and runs a scheme similar to Canales (2021-2023). Looking at that time frame, he and Mike Evans are still nearly identical in every statistical category except depth of target, air yards (to be expected given the depth of target difference), end zone targets, and total TDs. However, Godwin actually has more red zone targets during that time (59 to 56, respectively). I’m expecting some serious positive TD regression and see him go from WR33 to at least WR15 by season’s end.”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

“It’s Kyle Pitts. Currently going as the TE7 at the beginning of the 6th round, Pitts is a massive value. As one of the guys with the real potential to finish as THE TE1 this season, Pitts is the guy who goes the latest of the bunch. He’s also currently going one spot behind George Kittle, who will need an injury to see the volume Pitts is slated to receive. QB Kirk Cousins, OC Zac Robinson, and tertiary weapons like WR Darnell Mooney will all serve to improve Pitts’s opportunities while scheming him open and drawing away coverage, respectively. There aren’t too many greater values in drafts right now than Pitts.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)

“Kyle Pitts (Fantasy Pros Expert Current ADP TE 7 / Ringo’s Ranking TE 1) The Falcons ponied up for the best QB in free agency when they went out and signed veteran Kirk Cousins to a huge deal. Admiral Kirk will be the best QB Kyle Pitts has ever played with, and the upgrade should help the Falcons’ offense boldly go where no man has gone before: The end zone, haha! Atlanta also changed the coaching staff (new head coach Raheem Morris and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson), which should lead to a more pass-oriented offense. Pitts was unstoppable in college, and as long as he and Cousins can stay healthy, it’s logical to think that Pitts will not only dominate this season but for many years to come. “Helm, lock phasers on Kyle Pitts (one of Ringo’s favorite draft targets in 2024)…..Fire Mr. Sulu!””
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

“I have been beating the drum to Najee Harris all offseason, and I will continue to beat that drum heading into the season as his value is too good. At RB24, or 68th overall, Najee offers top ten upside to me. His new OC loves to run the rock, and Najee has yet to have a season with less than 1,000 yards rushing in his three-year career. Plus, it is a contract year for him, meaning he wants to showcase why he should either get an extension or get paid elsewhere. Either way if I am missing out on one of the top 6 RBs to me (CMC, Bijan, Breece, Barkley, Gibbs, Etienne) then I am likely going zero RB until I get to Najee Harris.”
– Miguel ‘SC’ Romero (Fantasy Football Universe)

Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL)

“If you select Rico Dowdle at his ADP of RB44, you should be imprisoned for stealing. Seriously, just because he doesn’t have a big name, the undrafted free agent in 2020 is in line for a massive season. Everything out of Cowboys camp indicates that Ezekiel Elliott does not look worthy of a roster spot. Outside of Zeke, his only competition is Royce Freeman and Malik Davis. Vegas currently has the Cowboys projected to score the fifth most points in the league, giving Dowdle potential top 15 RB upside.”
– Ellis Johnson (RotoBaller)

Rashee Rice (WR – KC)

“Rashee Rice, WR Chiefs is a player to again start having confidence in. No suspension seems forthcoming; he’s looked good and showed continued chemistry in camp with Patrick Mahomes, and Hollywood Brown suffered a pretty serious injury. Rice was one of the most efficient WRs in football last season, had an incredible rookie season, and should take even more steps forward in year 2. I’m willing to be a bit aggressive and grab him ahead of his ADP of Consensus WR31.”
– Justin Jaksa (Dr. Roto)

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)

“RB Isiah Pacheco is being taken as the 11th running back off draft boards, despite RB8 status in FantasyPros ECR and top-six upside at the position. As the lead back in a Chiefs offense that did not resign last year’s third-down RB Jerick McKinnon, Pacheco will have plenty of scoring and passing down opportunities in 2024. If Pacheco takes even half of McKinnon’s 46 vacated touches, he can easily reach 20 touches per game, a mark only four running backs topped last year. ”
– Dan Larocca (RotoBaller)

Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF)

“Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills: Shakir’s WR51 ADP supplies little risk. He brings a built-in rapport with Josh Allen — something Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel don’t have. We saw that rapport last year when Shakir tallied 23 catches (on 25 targets) over his final five games. Also note: Samuel is a candidate to miss Week 1 with turf toe.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

“I’m targeting George Pickens at WR26 and 58th overall. Once we get to this point in the draft, we will not only be without any receivers left to project to be the WR1 on their team, but in some cases, we will be drafting the third receiver on the Texans and Bears. So, instead, I will just take what looks to be the guaranteed WR1 on the Steelers. The Steelers offense struggled in 2023, but that was with Kenny Pickett. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have proven they can support an elite fantasy receiver, and that’s exactly what I expect Pickens to be. Pickens has been a human highlight reel and has never profiled to be a target hog, but with his big play ability, he can maximize every single target he receives. It’s wheels up for Pickens in 2024.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

“Terry McLaurin, WR30 in half PPR, is a steal at his current price. Jayden Daniels is a hot target for fantasy managers, and he has to throw to someone. McLaurin thrives on his deep ball prowess, something his new starting quarterback is known for. McLaurin should see no real competition for huge targets in Washington, and with new stability at the quarterback position, he should easily achieve WR2 status when managers are drafting him as a WR3 right now. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

Players to Avoid at ADP

Who is a player you’re AVOIDING in drafts based on his current ADP and why?

Drake London (WR – ATL)

“Drake London – While his teammate Kyle Pitts saw a position-low 64.0% catchable target rate in 2023, London saw a modest 71.6% rate that ranked 37th of 80 receivers with 50 or more targets. Kirk Cousins should help every Falcons receiver this season, but London likely has less room to improve than some of his teammates.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)

“Drake London – I get the hype for London as he finally has a top-tier quarterback in Kirk Cousins. I just can’t justify taking him at his current ADP (23). There are too many questions about how this new look of the Falcons offense will operate. I need to see it play out first.”
– Justin Fuhr (Pro Football Mania)

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

“We try to never avoid anyone as often the most valuable players are the ones we all hate. That said, it’s hard to take Puka Nacua this year. Cooper Kupp is healthy, and there is no guarantee that the sophomore will remain the alpha in the Rams’ passing attack. Nacua is also entering the season banged up. Doubt he will end up on any of our teams.”
– Fantasy Football Goonz (Fantasy Football Goonz)

“I’m avoiding Puka Nacua as much as possible in drafts at his current ADP. Don’t get me wrong, Puka is a very talented player, but we may have already seen his best season. Matt Stafford isn’t getting any younger, and Cooper Kupp is starting off the season fully healthy, unlike last year, so it might be difficult to repeat his production from last year. He’s currently being drafted at WR8, which is too high for my liking.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)

Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

“Josh Allen is a spectacular quarterback! He has been the QB1 in most leagues for the past few years and is a great core quarterback for any fantasy team, but at ADP 22.3, I am avoiding him this year. By drafting a quarterback early, a team is left weaker in skill positions. Allen is a great fantasy asset because of his rushing yards and touchdowns, which makes him hard to pass up for many owners during the draft. With rushing yards/touchdowns in mind, owners can/should wait a few rounds and draft Anthony Richardson (ADP 49.3) or Kyler Murray (ADP 66), who have the possibility of gaining ground on Allen this year in those scoring areas.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)

“Stefon Diggs (WR22 in the ADP) is getting massively overdrafted. He has an early fourth-round ADP, getting picked ahead of wide receivers he shouldn’t be, including Malik Nabers (WR24), Amari Cooper (WR25), Tee Higgins (WR26), Tank Dell (WR29), and Christian Kirk (WR32). There are two reasons why I won’t draft the veteran in 2024. He has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from 2023 in Houston. The veteran should be the third Texans receiver drafted and a seventh-round pick.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“There are simply too many question marks for managers to choose Stefon Diggs at his current WR21 (41st overall) valuation. For one, Diggs is not getting any younger heading into his age 31 season after a rocky end to his tenure in Buffalo. He now goes to Houston, where he will see a major increase in competition for targets in a now-loaded Houston offense from Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. While he may finish okay, the week-to-week finishes for Diggs may be rocky.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)

“Drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. at #20 is a great way to lose your league before the third round. Sure, he’s a shiny new toy, but rookie receivers often fizzle before they sizzle. If you’re itching to secure that last-place punishment and become the punchline of your league’s group chat, go ahead, use your second pick on him.”
– Matt Gaines (League Tycoon)

Trey McBride (TE – ARI)

“I’m avoiding Trey McBride at his current ADP of TE3. I believe in the talent here, but this is more about opportunity. Most of his production from his breakout campaign came due to injuries all around the Cardinals’ offense. Hollywood Brown, Michael Wilson and James Conner all missed significant time last year. He also did not break 48 yards receiving in any of his last three games. With the addition of Harrison and a healthy team, I’d look for other options that will produce more value.”
– Blake Fincher (Fantasy Football Cafe)

Davante Adams (WR – LV)

“Davante Adams, with an ADP inside round two, is a huge avoid for me walking into 2024. His targets are down in LV, and his offense is horrible. The frustration that he had last year with the QB room and the organization probably will not go away this season, as he will continue to be fed hospital balls in 2024. The Raiders just look awful, and head coach Antonio Pierce crapped the bed with the task of snagging a top-four rookie QB, and I think it will come back to bite him. It’s hard to imagine Adams being worth round two ADP when all is said and done. Take safer players as your second-drafted player (like Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Deebo Samuel).”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)

“Justin Jefferson (JJ) is an amazing talent, and having him here is not a knock on him, but rather the offense he’s going to endure with Sam Darnold at the helm. Darnold has yet to produce a 900-yard receiver in his career (In the 1100+ yard year for DJ Moore, 300 of them came from Cam Newton) or a top 25 fantasy WR, has never played a full season, never had a completion percentage above 61.9% (abysmal), never had a catchable pass rate above 73.4% (consistently ranking 40+ worst QB in that category except in 2021 where he ranked 33rd), his pressured catchable pass rate hovers between 40%-55% (the years above 50% he ranked no better than 17th in that category), never made a Pro Bowl, and his career TD to INT ratio is 63 to 56 respectively. JJ is undoubtedly the best WR Darnold has had in his career, and it’s possible JJ leads the league in targets this year, but even if he gets ceiling Darnold the entire season, he’s not paying off a round 1 ADP.”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

“David Montgomery is a guy I was snatching up in drafts last season. This season, however, I’m out on the Lions short-yardage workhorse back. Monty was the half-ppr RB13 last season on the back of 13 touchdowns. But in the three games last season that Montgomery played and didn’t score, he finished no better than the RB22. And he was no better than RB17 over the last five weeks as running mate Jahmyr Gibbs came into his own over the back half. Now, with Jameson Williams emerging as another potential offensive weapon, I’m out on Monty in the 5th round as the RB20. That’s likely his ceiling this year.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

“I am out on Jonathan Taylor at RB4 off the board or 9th overall. It’s been two years since he finished as RB1 overall, and in those two years, he has missed 13 games. In his opportunities when on the field, his yards per carry dropped below five yards per carry. Plus, he had less than 300 receiving yards in those seasons after having received over 600 yards in his first two seasons. It does not help that his quarterback may take some red zone carries away from him or just carries in general. At 9th overall, I would much rather have AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, or Jahmyr Gibbs.”
– Miguel ‘SC’ Romero (Fantasy Football Universe)

Chris Olave (WR – NO)

“Chris Olave’s ADP of WR12 is the fantasy equivalent to Rye Bread. Every time you go to breakfast, you always get three options: White, Brown, or Rye. Although they are displayed as equivalent options, we all know Rye is the worst. When you choose Rye (aka drafting Olave at his price), you are overlooking the far superior upside of White Bread (Nico Collins WR14) and the classic Brown Bread (Mike Evans WR15). Olave has the talent to draw you in as an intriguing selection; however, the team is plain oatmeal. You won’t leave hungry off of Rye Bread and Oatmeal, but you’ll be wishing you had something more exciting. ”
– Ellis Johnson (RotoBaller)

Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)

“Cole Kmet, TE Bears, was a late-round consideration for those that like to go late-round TE. Unfortunately, some of the reports out of Bears camp is that Gerald Everett is running ahead of Kmet in practice. The pre-season game action did, in fact, confirm these reports. The two have been rotating quite a bit. Make sure to “X” Kmet off your draft boards.”
– Justin Jaksa (Dr. Roto)

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)

“T.J. Hockenson (Fantasy Pros Current ADP TE 13 / Ringo’s Ranking TE 46) I don’t know what folks are thinking and drinking with their stratospheric current ADP of T.J. Hockenson at TE 13, but pour me a glass because it must be really good, haha. Hockenson is coming off major reconstructive knee surgery, which was performed on January 29, 2024. At the time of this writing (August 21, 2024) it hasn’t even been seven months post-surgery! There is no way T.J. will be 100%, not just for week one, but for the entire season! Even if, by some act of God, Hockenson makes a miraculous Adrian Peterson type of recovery, which I highly doubt, the Vikings will still be without QB Kirk Cousins (who left in free agency) and could very well be eliminated from the playoffs by the time he comes back, lessening the odds T.J. plays much, if at all. Bust!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)

“WR Michael Pittman Jr. should be avoided at his current WR20 cost. His ADP is reflective of a career-best 109 catches for 1152 yards in 2023 – marks he is unlikely to replicate in a lower passing-volume offense with QB Anthony Richardson. Pittman Jr. underperformed with Richardson under center last year, averaging 1.8 fewer receptions and 22.7 fewer receiving yards in Richardson’s starts. He has also only averaged 3.75 receiving touchdowns per year over his career, making him a risky low-floor pick in the early rounds of drafts.”
– Dan Larocca (RotoBaller)

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)

“He’s one of my favorite players of all time, both in real life and fantasy. Arguably the best pure runner the NFL has seen since the turn of the millennium. Still, I just can’t convince myself to draft even a sliver of Nick Chubb this season. The Browns are at a crossroads with their franchise right now and what they will do in the future with Deshaun Watson after this season, and we’re not even sure if Chubb will even play a single game in uniform this year at all, let alone one fully healthy game. Even if he does return midway or late in the year, Cleveland is smart enough of a franchise to ease him back into things and make him part of a rotation, not put extra pressure on his body, meaning that he’d likely form an ugly four-headed committee at RB with the likes of Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong Jr., and D’Onta Foreman.

Chubb could be a fine waiver flier late in the year, given his situation, but his household name value is holding that back from actually becoming a reality, given his current ADP of overall pick 88 at an extremely lofty price tag of RB31. I couldn’t live with myself for passing on potentially elite options like Xavier Worthy, Jonathan Brooks, Rome Odunze, Jayden Daniels, Tyjae Spears or Jaylen Warren in this range. Being a personal fan of Chubb’s game – and rooting for him to make a full comeback in the future – simply cannot be valid reasons to draft him inside the top 100 this year.”
– Christopher Dell (Betting Predators)

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

“Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers: White’s advanced rushing metrics were rough last year: 0.04 missed tackles forced per attempt, 2.3 yards after contact per attempt, and a 40.8% rushing success rate. The O-line should improve, but there’s almost no chance White see another 272 carries — especially with Bucky Irving coming on.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

The Kyren Williams Debate

Occasionally, analysts disagree on which side of the Target/Avoid argument a player belongs. Here are their arguments and you can decide for yourself whose opinion you agree with.

Target

“Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey were by far and away the best fantasy football running backs in the league last year; however, Kyren gets drafted in round two. Williams only played 12 games last year, yet he: 1) rushed for 12TDs, 2) scored 15 total TDs, 3) was a top 10RB 67% of the time, and was a top 5RB 50% of the time. He has arguably the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL with a coach who absolutely loves him. Cuff Blake Corum (who is just a cuff despite what some say), and you have a top 1-5RB for 2024.”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)

Avoid

“I’m avoiding Kyren Williams at RB7 and 16th overall. Williams was a league-winner in 2023 and certainly showed he has the talent to be a star, so this isn’t a reflection of his talent but rather the belief that his draft cost is simply too high. Running backs with little or no draft capital rarely enjoy long NFL careers (basically just Austin Ekeler), and in most cases, their one blow-up season ends up being a one-hit-wonder. Williams’ situation is made even worse by the fact that the Rams invested a second-round pick on running back Blake Corum, further indicating that Williams may be in store for some competition.

This is problematic because his value last season was largely due to insane volume. The loss of Cooper Kupp to injury, as well as no competition for touches in the backfield, created a perfect storm for Williams to explode. The issue is that he is being drafted at his ceiling, and his circumstances are shaping up to be far less ideal than they were in 2023. He won’t be an outright bust, but it’s going to be tough for him to come anywhere near this draft cost.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)

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