We may be entering the dog days of summer, but preseason NFL football is back. With that comes training camp hype, fantasy football drafts, and, most importantly, preseason DFS! It is one of the few forms of DFS left where algorithms and optimizers will only get you so far. As is the case with all forms of DFS, you’ll need a little luck to find the top of the leaderboards. Reading the tea leaves can often lead you to the most productive players.
First and foremost, salary is irrelevant in this format. For the first week of the preseason, particularly in the HOF game, starters are also useless. We are looking for safe floors and high upside. Touchdown exposure is key to winning as well. Most importantly, opportunity is king. We want guys that get a lot of snaps.
2024 NFL Preseason DFS Picks: Hall of Fame Game
Head Coaching Tendencies
DeMeco Ryans: Ryans enters 2024 with one year under his belt and high expectations for an offense that has gone all-in on pursuing a championship. Last year, the Texans starters played an average of 10 snaps in their first preseason game, with C.J. Stroud seeing 12 snaps in his NFL debut. That’s simply not going to happen on Thursday night. According to Ryans, he has indicated that the “second and third groups” are going to get a majority of the playing time on Thursday.
The Texans’ preseason offense was balanced last year, with 30 rushing attempts and 30 passing attempts in their first preseason game, 38 rushing attempts and 29 passing attempts in their second preseason game, and 31 rushing attempts and 27 passing attempts in their third and final preseason game.
Carries and snaps were also distributed very equally. No running back saw more than five carries in the first preseason game. Snap distribution among running backs was 11 (Devin Singletary, 2nd string), nine (Mike Boone, 3rd string), 16 (Dare Ogunbowale, 4th string), 17 (Gerrid Doaks, 5th string), and 11 (Xazavian Valladay, 6th string).
As for the wide receivers, last year, Tank Dell dominated the snap count among Texans receivers (31 snaps, 48.44%) and the target share (8 targets, 5 catches for 65 yards, and a touchdown). Similar to Stroud, don’t expect to see Dell in this contest.
Matt Eberflus: This will be the third season for the Bears, with Eberflus as their head coach. Similar to Ryans, Eberflus has distributed snaps fairly evenly among the skill players in the first preseason contest. However, the Bears hired a new Offensive Coordinator this offseason in Shane Waldron. Waldron served as the OC for the Seattle Seahawks for the last three seasons.
Last year the Bears starters received between one and two drives. They were aggressive from the start on offense. This year, the starters are taking the night off, though. There has been an emphasis by both coaches that younger players are going to get the bulk of the work in this game. Last year, in the first preseason game, the Bears gave heavy snaps to a select few first and second-year skill position players. Roschon Johnson had 28 snaps (50%), and Velus Jones Jr. had 34 snaps (60.71%). Tyson Bagent led Bears quarterbacks (albeit by only one snap) with 17 snaps (30.36%).
Quarterbacks
Texans (3) – Stroud will not play
Davis Mills: Mills will start for the Texans. How much he plays will ultimately be the question, but the Texans have a deep wide receiver group and some talent at tight end. Mills has also started 26 games in his three-year NFL career, so going against backups with veteran pass catchers could make for some decent output. Mills was 27th in pass attempts (45) last year during the preseason and saw at least 24 snaps in all three preseason games last year. Given the veterans that are behind him, it’s unlikely any are going to challenge him for his job.
Case Keenum: We know that Keenum is going to get playing time, but based on last season, Mills will likely see more. Keenum can, and likely should, still be in your player pool, however. In last year’s opening preseason game, Keenum was 9-for-14 for 79 yards and a touchdown. It was Keenum’s only game in the preseason, as he dealt with a soft-tissue injury throughout. He started two games last season for the Texans as well. As is the case with Mills, a veteran quarterback against backups always has the potential to be able to string together a good drive or two.
Tim Boyle: I’m just gonna leave this from last November here about Boyle.
Bears (3) – Caleb Williams will not play.
Tyson Bagent: Bagent will start for the Bears on Thursday night. Bagent’s rookie season wasn’t great, but he also wasn’t as terrible as some of his numbers were:
You’re likely not going to get the home run plays from Bagent, either. He had an aDOT of 4.0 last season. The Bears have been getting running backs involved heavily in the passing game thus far in training camp as well. Bagent did show a little bit of promise with his rushing ability last season, and in the preseason, a rushing quarterback can be a difference-maker. If news breaks before kickoff about the rotation of Bears running backs, particularly the starting back(s), they could be in line for a few dump-off receptions. On sites like DraftKings, those catches add up in a hurry in preseason DFS.
Brett Rypien: Rypien has four career starts under his belt in his four-year career. That’s about all I can offer as a positive to his playing ability. He started one game for the Los Angeles Rams last season against the Green Bay Packers, and it was horrendous. There’s little to no rushing upside either here.
Austin Reed: If you’re expecting the Bears to be launching the ball downfield on Thursday night, this might not be the game for you. Of the rookie quarterbacks this season, only Bo Nix had more pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage last year than Reed.
Having said that, Reed could be an interesting play, provided he gets an opportunity to get at least a quarter of action. Reed was not drafted but does have some interesting upside as a passer. The Bears know what they have in Bagent, and the NFL knows what Rypien is at this point. This is a perfect situation where Reed could get some extra work. I’m not suggesting going too crazy on Reed ownership, but he should be considered in your player pool.
Running Backs
Bears (5): D’Andre Swift will not play. Travis Homer and Ian Wheeler‘s health and status are unknown, so both could miss this game.
Roschon Johnson: Johnson was practicing with the starters on Wednesday. Per Eberflus, the inactive players practiced separately from those that will be active. The process of elimination leads one to believe Johnson will not play.
Khalil Herbert: Herbert and Johnson are competing for the backup role at running back, however, if Johnson doesn’t play it seems likely that Herbert would also join him on the sidelines. This is a situation where, as we get closer to kickoff, we will have a more detailed list of inactives and players warming up. In the unlikely event that Herbert or Johnson do, in fact, suit up tonight, there is a contrarian case to be made for having exposure to them.
Travis Homer: Homer has been dealing with an injury lately and missed consecutive practices early in the week.
Ian Wheeler: Wheeler has been dealing with an injury lately and missed consecutive practices early in the week.
Demetric Felton Jr.: It’s wheels up for Felton in showdown. He could very well be one of the only running backs active for Chicago. For a format where snaps and opportunity are king, Felton is in rarified air early on. The question for Felton isn’t whether to roster him, it’s how much exposure you want to have at CPT or MVP.
Texans (6) – Joe Mixon will not play.
Dameon Pierce: The Texans are resting their starters, so Pierce will get the start in the backfield. Given the number of running backs on this roster and his performance thus far in camp, the Texans coaching staff likely doesn’t need to see a lot (or any) of Pierce, however, this game. We also don’t have a definitive time frame for Mixon’s return to practice, so the Texans have added reason to give a light load to Pierce in this game.
So that’s the caveat. That said, by all accounts, Pierce is looking good in camp. His decisiveness has improved, and he’s looking a lot more comfortable in the offense. Whether it’s the beat writers singing his praise or his head coach, Pierce is doing enough to look entrenched as Mixon’s primary backup. Oh…and there is a remark from Ryans below that Pierce has done some work in the return game.
Dare Ogunbowale: Ogunbowale has practiced numerous times with the starters throughout training camp, serving as the third-down back. On DraftKings, he offers a potentially unique and contrarian PPR upside, particularly if he can string together a few receptions. There are better options at running back than Ogunbowale.
Jawhar Jordan: Jordan is going to be a popular option on this slate, and rightfully so. On the “unofficial” depth chart released by the Texans ahead of Thursday’s game, Jordan was fourth on the depth chart. Per Pro Football Focus, Jordan had a 91.0 zone running grade since 2022, a staple of the Texans’ running game. Jordan is a bit of a smaller back at 5’10, 193 lbs. but has had a solid camp as a runner and has been heavily involved in catching passes out of the backfield.
British Brooks: Brooks is a UDFA and is likely competing for a spot on the practice squad. He was an interesting metric prospect, so if he can get a chance to get an extended run, he might be able to produce. Unfortunately, he’s also buried at the bottom of the depth chart behind the recent acquisition of Cam Akers. Brooks becomes an interesting play if some of the guys ahead of him on the depth chart are ruled inactive.
J.J. Taylor: Taylor has gotten some work on kick returns. This might be one of the few ways he can contribute to this game.
Cam Akers: Akers has not been very impactful in practice despite his familiarity with similar offensive schemes. He’s also had two Achilles tears in three years. His name recognition might draw more ownership to him than Ogunbowale, Jordan, or Brooks, but I don’t feel confident that he does anything worthwhile in this game.
Wide Receivers
Bears (10) – D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are out.
Rome Odunze: Odunze has had a monster training camp, connecting early and often with Caleb Williams. Odunze is a player to take note of for the pregame inactives. If he does play, he could break the slate with just one big reception.
Tyler Scott: Training camp buzz is often just noise. A lot of “oohs” and “ahhs” when receivers are making plays against the air. Take it with a grain of salt, but there has been a significant amount of buzz around Scott’s performance thus far in camp. It’s also important to remember that Scott and Bagent played well together last season.
Velus Jones Jr. and DeAndre Carter: I am pairing Jones and Carter together because both players are in the running for the kick return and punt return roles, according to the Bears’ first depth chart. Defenses are going to be popular plays, and potentially getting the double-dip on a return touchdown would be huge.
Nsimba Webster, Freddie Swain, Dante Pettis, Collin Johnson, Peter LeBlanc, John Jackson: A lot of JAGs here, however of this group Johnson has had a pretty solid training camp. Webster has missed a couple of practices recently. Pettis has worked on punt returns a bit in camp. These guys will likely be playing most, if not all, of their snaps with Rypien and/or Reed.
Texans (10):
Robert Woods: Does he play, and if so, for how long?
Noah Brown and John Metchie: Brown had a veteran day off on Tuesday, so it shouldn’t affect his availability Thursday night. He and Metchie have both had good camps and are competing for a role in a very top-heavy wide receiver room. Both players should make the team, but there is competition here, so I could see a situation where they get a quarter or more of work.
Ben Skowronek, Xavier Hutchinson, Steven Sims: This is a group of guys that could heavily impact the slate. Hutchinson led the Texans in preseason snaps last season. Skowronek has had a solid camp thus far. Sims is a five-year NFL veteran. All three are listed 3rd on the depth chart, and there’s a likely possibility that only one makes the roster. Last year the Texans kept six wide receivers at the 53-man cutdown date. I would expect to see a fairly heavy amount of snaps among these three receivers.
Johnny Johnson, Quintez Cephus, Jadon Janke, Jared Wayne: Cephus will be the recognizable name among this group. He missed last season due to a suspension for gambling but spent three seasons with the Detroit Lions before the 2023 campaign. From this group, however, Janke could be a solid contrarian option. A 6’3, 210 lb. UDFA, Janke provides size and good ball skills to make an impact in settings such as the HOF game. He’s connected well with Mills as well numerous times in camp.
Tight Ends
Bears (5) – Cole Kmet is out.
Gerald Everett and Marcedes Lewis – Both are aging veterans and are doubtful to play or contribute anything meaningful for DFS purposes.
Tommy Sweeney, Stephen Carlson, and Brenden Bates: Sweeney connected with Bagent for a TD in camp. Carlson has had a couple of successful plays with Williams at quarterback. Bates is a UDFA who predominantly served as a blocker at Kentucky. You’re probably hoping for a touchdown from one of these guys if you roster them.
Texans (4) – Dalton Schultz is out.
Brevin Jordan: Jordan is listed as the 2nd string, but his spot on the 53-man roster is likely safe, and his playing time could be minimal at best.
Cade Stover: Stover has had a solid camp thus far and is a high-priority player in this game. While Stover won’t be reuniting with Stroud quite yet in a game (they played together at Ohio State), he is making waves at camp. As a converted tight end from linebacker, Stover was one of four tight ends last season without a drop. Last season, the Texans gave heavy snaps to another hyped camp tight end, Mason Schreck, in their first preseason game (34 snaps, 2 targets, 2 receptions for 17 yards), and I could envision the same type of snap count here for Stover.
Teagan Quitoriano and Dalton Keene: Quitoriano dealt with an oblique and groin injury before camp started and has connected with Mills at quarterback during camp. Keene has missed some practice with a leg injury.
Kickers and Defenses
One of the most important aspects of preseason DFS is the kicker and defense position, particularly in the early part of preseason. Defenses are often ahead of the offenses, and when you get 2nd and 3rd string offenses playing long periods, you get the increased possibility of turnovers.
Another aspect new to the 2024 season is the revised kickoff rules. The Texans have emphasized this in practice. As for the Bears, they have two wide receivers, Jones and Carter, competing for the roles of kick returner and punt returner. Double-dipping one of these guys with the team defense could produce solid results if they house a kickoff.
From a roster construction standpoint, the kickers and defenses in this game need to be prioritized.
With all that being said, below are the players that are priorities in my player pool. The “elite” options are players I’m strongly considering for the CPT/MVP slot. The “core plays” are guys who have relatively high floors but also have the potential to be in the optimal lineup. Finally, the punt plays are players who have potentially low-to-zero floors but could surprise with a big play or two.
For additional context, I am a 20-max GPP contest participant. As will be the case throughout the preseason, late-breaking news will heavily impact roster construction for these slates. I will be consistently in the FantasyPros discord channel the day of the game(s) and before lock to address any important news, inactives, or roster construction. Feel free to stop by and engage with the community over there!
Elite Plays: Texans D/ST, Bears D/ST, Demetric Felton, Cade Stover
Core Plays: Ka’imi Fairbairn, Cairo Santos, Davis Mills, Jawhar Jordan, Dameon Pierce, Tyler Scott, Ben Skowronek, John Metchie, Noah Brown
Punt Plays: Austin Reed, British Brooks, Collin Johnson, Velus Jones, Jadon Janke
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