We’re nearing the end of the 2024 PGA Tour season, as the BMW Championship is the second of three FedExCup playoff events. Hosted at Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado, it’s setting a record as the longest course in PGA Tour history, running over 8,130 yards.
This par 72 course features Bentgrass greens that run 13 feet via Stimpmeter, while averaging over 5,600 square feet, making them big and fast. The elevation in the Rockies will help some golfers with less power off-the-tee and on approach to get the ball onto greens in regulation, but accuracy remains a critical skill at this Jack Nicklaus design.
We’re back with another one-and-done predictions article, with the payouts for finishing position continuing to grow. Make sure to follow me on X @Matt_MacKay_ for more free PGA betting insights and advice throughout the week.
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Big Guns
Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele has to be a player inserted into one-and-done lineups this week. He’s won two majors and nearly won the FedEx St. Jude Championship with a closing round 7-under-par outing. There’s virtually no weakness in his game and he’s dialed in right now, so if you’ve been saving Schauffele, now is the time to deploy him in survivor and one-and-done leagues.
Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler is the World No. 1 and comfortably occupies the top ranking in the FedExCup entering this event. Scheffler continues to record top-ten finishes week in and week out. However, he’s been unable to win the FedExCup playoffs in similar positions beforehand, so he’s more motivated to finally end that slump and put the exclamation point on a career year.
Secondary Options
Viktor Hovland
Viktor Hovland is the reigning FedExCup champion and nearly pulled off the comeback win over Hideki Matsuyama at TPC Southwind last Sunday. Hovland’s off-the-tee prowess and putting ability are sharp, which are two great skills to possess at a course like Castle Pines.
Hideki Matsuyama
Coming off of his second win in 2024, Hideki Matsuyama measures well against the other 49 golfers in the BMW Championship field. He’s third in SG: tee-to-green behind only Scheffler and Schauffele, while ranking top-ten in SG: off-the-tee, SG: approach, and second in SG: around-the-green.
Sneaky Plays
Patrick Cantlay
Quietly, Patrick Cantlay has been a force on the PGA Tour in his last few events. He’s recorded four consecutive top-25 finishes, including top-five at Travelers and the U.S. Open, while finishing T12 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Cantlay ranks top-ten in total strokes gained and is top-20 in SG: putting.
Wyndham Clark
Wyndham Clark’s familiarity with playing on courses with elevation like Castle Pines is going to give him a boost this week. Clark has been playing great golf lately, while his best skills are off-the-tee and putting. His driver and putter can inflict a lot of damage at a course he’s unofficially played over 25 times, so expect a big showing from Clark, who could yield a ton of points and/or money in survivor and one-and-done leagues.
Favorite One-And-Done: Xander Schauffele
If Xander Schauffele is still available, you have to play him this week. Schauffele is red-hot and no area of his game is lacking right now. He’s first in SG: putting, second SG: approach, fifth SG: off-the-tee, and second SG: tee-to-green. He undoubtedly has his sights set on winning the FedExCup playoffs and a third consecutive top-five finish on the PGA Tour is well within reach at Castle Pines this week.
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