10 Burning Questions: Luis Robert, Christopher Morel, Tyler Fitzgerald (Fantasy Baseball)

Can you believe that it’s almost playoff time for Fantasy Baseball? Feels like just yesterday that fantasy managers were scrolling through spring training box scores looking for lineup trends. Hopefully, you’re in contention in all of your fantasy leagues because you’ve been reading and listening to all the great content that FantasyPros provides every single day. One of the many pieces of content available is this week’s 10 Burning Questions. This week’s edition has questions on surprising performers, injured performers, and more.

10 Burning Questions

What has happened to Luis Robert?

How the mighty have fallen. Luis Robert won a Silver Slugger Award last season when he hit 38 home runs with 20 stolen bases. It’s that type of production that fantasy managers were hoping for when they selected him with what was likely a top-40 selection. He hasn’t delivered on that capital.

Robert is at 14 home runs, 31 RBI, 17 stolen bases, and a 209 batting average. If you go from the All-Star Break, the statistics are even more disappointing, with three home runs, six stolen bases, and a 167 average. During that stretch, he has struck out 49 times and walked three. The stolen bases are the only counting statistic even close to what we’ve expected from him. Typically, quantitative data is what we look for when making observations in fantasy baseball, but in Robert’s situation, there seems to be an easy qualitative answer. The White Sox are trending toward being an all-time bad team. He may just have checked out. In three-outfielder leaguers, he is droppable, and you may have a better option even in a five-outfielder league.

Weren’t the Rays supposed to fix Christopher Morel?

It appeared that the Tampa Bay Rays had worked their magic on Christopher Morel. He hit home runs in his first two games with Tampa Bay. Since then, everything has gone south.

Those are the only two home runs and RBI that Morel has accrued since joining the Rays. When he joined the Rays, it seemed a foregone conclusion that his 199 batting average would have to rise. In reality, it has fallen even lower as he has batted just 148 with Tampa Bay. Some of it is poor luck, as he has the lowest qualified BABIP in baseball at 215. That’s 10 points lower than the next lowest batter. What’s more concerning is that the hard-hit rates have fallen off considerably to just 22% with Tampa Bay. Morel’s turnaround may not happen this season. That could depress his value next draft season when he is going to be an intriguing breakout option.

Is Tyler Fitzgerald actually this good?

It’s not that Tyler Fitzgerald hadn’t been successful in the minor leagues. He had put together a 21 home run and 20 stolen base season in 2022 at Double-A. Then, he followed that with a 22 home run and 32 stolen base season between Double-A and Triple-A. Yet there wasn’t much excitement when he was called to the major leagues.

All he has done since being called to San Francisco is continue to hit home runs and steal bases in droves. He has 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases with an incredible 316 average through 63 games. The speed is for real, as evidenced by his 99th percentile sprint speed. The power looks real, but he does it similarly to Isaac Paredes in that he relies on pulling the ball. As for the average, between his 387 BABIP and nearly 28% strikeout percentage, that’s unsustainable. Even when that settles to a more realistic level, this is a power and speed skillset that should maintain fantasy value.

Has Bryce Miller quietly taken another step in his development?

Bryce Miller has an ERA of 1.91 going back to the start of July. Walks were an issue with him earlier in the season as he was walking over 2.5 per nine innings. He has seemingly fixed that.

Over his last 42.1 innings, Miller has walked just three batters. With fewer runners on base, the blowup starts that have plagued Miller at times have also not happened. His season-long ERA is down to 3.29, and his WHIP is down to just under 1.0. Beyond walking fewer batters, there isn’t a noticeable change in Miller’s profile, so this could be a hot stretch. Regardless, he has solidified himself as a near must-start pitcher.

Can Tobias Myers sustain this low ERA?

Tobias Myers is the Tyler Fitzgerald of pitchers, except his minor league track record wasn’t strong the past few years. He went 1-15 with an ERA over seven at Triple-A in 2022. That doesn’t sound like the player with a 2.81 ERA over his first 99 major league innings.

If you bring the qualifications to 90 innings, the only rookie with a lower ERA than Myers is All-Star Game starter Paul Skenes. The strikeouts are fewer than we’re looking for in a fantasy starting pitcher. He is striking out under eight batters per nine innings. Myers’ success has come from pitching backward. His slider and changeup are phenomenal pitches for him, but his fastballs have been hit hard. Eventually, that will catch up with him, and his ERA will rise, but enjoy it while it lasts.

Is Corbin Carroll back?

This is why the highest-end players get a substantial amount of leash in the fantasy baseball season. Corbin Carroll’s lack of performance was scrutinized for any little thing that could have been an answer to why he was struggling. His recent performance shows that he may be back to the form we’ve come to expect.

Since the start of July, Carroll has 11 home runs, seven stolen bases, and is batting 238. The average is still lower than what fantasy managers were hoping for, but it’s slowly rising. What’s more encouraging is that the power seems to be coming back to the levels that we expected. He has hit four home runs in his last eight games. The exit velocities and hard-hit rates are slightly lower than last season, but there is not a massive difference. If you are still expecting first-round production, that’s unlikely. However, he could still settle in as a top-50 player the rest of the way.

What is the latest injury to the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation?

The Dodgers’ long list of starting pitchers on the injured list grew even longer on Friday when Tyler Glasnow went on the injured list. It’s his second time on the injured list this season, but this one is more concerning because of the injury. He is having elbow tendinitis in his surgically repaired pitching elbow.

Last week, it was River Ryan who was injured. In his absence, Walker Buehler was recalled. With Glasnow’s injury, the team turned to Justin Wrobleski. He made a start against the Cardinals on Friday, going five innings. In his innings, he allowed four earned runs, including three home runs, but earned the win. The good news for Glasnow managers is that Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts indicated, based on elbow scans, that it would only be a few weeks until he returns.

Is Corbin Burnes slumping?

Corbin Burnes had the worst start of his illustrious career last week. The worst part was that it happened on his bobblehead night. He allowed a career-high ten hits and eight earned runs allowed in just four innings. Was it a flash in the pan or something more?

The answer is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. While the ERA is still only 3.10, there is some concerning underlying data. While the strikeouts were there in his last start with seven, the strikeouts per nine innings continue to fall. It appears this will be the fifth straight season of decline, with his new level being less than one per inning. Likewise, he is allowing more hits than he has since 2019. While Burnes won’t be as bad as he was last week, don’t be surprised if his ERA slowly climbs the rest of the season.

Why the short start for Jose Soriano?

There has not been much to celebrate this season if you are a Los Angeles Angels fan. One of them was the emergence of Jose Soriano as a starting pitcher. On Friday evening, he was struggling a bit, but it was still surprising to see him pulled at only 76 pitches.

On Saturday, we received an update. Soriano was placed on the injured list with arm fatigue. Expect the Angels to exercise extreme caution, considering the team has nothing to play for this season. If you drop the qualification to 110 innings, no pitcher has a higher groundball rate than Soriano’s 59.7%. So, while he doesn’t have the typical strikeout rate we look for in fantasy baseball, that groundball rate makes blowout starts for him extremely rare. He hasn’t given up more than four earned runs in any of his 20 starts.

Is Pete Fairbanks secure as the closer for the Tampa Bay Rays?

It was a tough weekend series for Pete Fairbanks. Last Thursday, his ERA was 2.68. After the weekend series vs Arizona, it now sits nearly a run higher at 3.57.

That’s what happens when you have two consecutive blowup outings as a reliever. Before the struggles, he had gone nine appearances without allowing a run to buy himself some leash. It should be noted that in between the blowups, the Rays turned to Richard Lovelady for a save. Also, there are reports that Fairbanks will be going on the injured list with a lat strain injury when it is confirmed by an MRI later today. That would be a reason to struggle, for sure. While he is on the injured list, look to the Rays to mix and match their save opportunities.