Draft day is full of excitement and anticipation, but it also comes with its fair share of pitfalls. In 2024, some players have been consistently overvalued, becoming traps for unwary fantasy managers. To help you avoid these missteps, we’ve compiled a list of the worst value picks based on Average Draft Position (ADP), sourced from a collection of Featured Pros analysts. These insights aim to steer you clear of players who are unlikely to deliver on their draft-day promises, ensuring you make smarter picks and maximize your team’s potential.

Taking a look at our average draft position (ADP) and practicing mock drafts in Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you seek might come off the board. Not only that, but understanding each player’s range of outcomes will allow you to judge whether each one is fairly priced, undervalued or overvalued relative to their ADP.

• 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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• 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Worst Value Picks by ADP: Running Backs

Who is the worst value pick at RB based on his current ADP and why?

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

“De’Von Achane does not have enough volume or carry percentage in this offense to pay off even close to his current price. The Dolphins have rotated their running backs heavily, and the lead RB has had less than 60% carry share each of the last two years. In his full games, excluding his two games with just one carry, he still averaged just 11.2 carries per game in 2023 behind late-round running back Gus Edwards (13.1), Brian Robinson (12.8), and close to Tyler Allgeier (10.8). Phillip Lindsay is the only comparable running back in size/YPC and had a large drop in efficiency the following year after his rookie year. It also hurts considerably that Miami lost two excellent offensive linemen in free agency and traded a 3rd-round pick for a similar running back in Jaylen Wright, who has a much more ideal build.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)

“De’Von Achane (RB8 in ADP) was outstanding as a rookie, finishing as the RB4 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 16.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, he averaged 7.8 yards per rushing attempt, a 12.6% explosive run rate, and 1.36 fantasy points per opportunity (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, the numbers aren’t repeatable in 2024. More importantly, the explosive runner struggled to stay healthy as a rookie. After the Dolphins brought back Raheem Mostert and drafted Jaylen Wright, Achane shouldn’t get picked before featured running backs like Derrick Henry (RB10) and Isiah Pacheco (RB11).”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“Raheem Mostert ran for 18 TDs last season; not only did that number lead the NFL, but it is also a Dolphins Franchise record. De’Von Achane is being drafted like a Top 10 RB as if Mostert is not going to be on the team next season, which is far from the truth as Mostert is their lead RB and definite goal-line TD machine. Take away the 200+ Yard 2 TD performance against the Broncos for Achane, and most of his games were RB3 quality at best. You are spending a high price to draft an RB who will only play like an RB1 when the Dolphins offense is scoring 4+ TDs in a game, which will not be as often in 2024.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

“De’Von Achane is going way too early. While he’s shown some impressive explosiveness, there’s no reason to believe the Dolphins won’t continue using a committee. In fact, they even spent a 2025 3rd rounder to get Jaylen Wright. This will remain an ugly committee where Raheem Mostert or Wright gets those valuable goal-line carries.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)

“De’Von Achane is one of the most electric players in the NFL! Every time he touches the ball, he can take it to the house. His biggest problem is that he is on a team with many star players (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert) who will demand the ball and score touchdowns. Couple that with the history and possibility of injury and that makes Achane a risky pick at RB8.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

“De’Von Achane is someone I dislike for the value in terms of ADP. Achane is being drafted in the late second round for a player who is the backup in Miami. The upside he showed last year was excellent, with almost 1000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games. The team still has Raheem Mostert, the RB1, and drafted Jaylen Wright with decent capital. It could very much be a full-blown committee in Miami. Drafting Achane that early, you are banking on his efficiency to continue, and I’d hate to bet on that in round two. I expect his 7.8 YPC and eight rushing touchdowns to regress in 2024.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

James Cook (RB – BUF)

“James Cook. There is no (very little) question about the volume that he will get through the air and on the ground, but there is always going to be a lack of TDs. Josh Allen is too much of a fan of taking the ball into his own hands, and the draft selection of Ray Davis is going to impact him, too. Considering his draft cost, there are better options that can be had later.”
– Richard King (King Fantasy Sports)

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

“Kyren Williams at 20th overall is just not a move I will be making this year in fantasy. While Williams was terrific a year ago, Williams was the RB1 in Los Angeles almost by default after Cam Akers was shipped out of town. This offseason, Sean McVay brought in some proper competition for Williams in Blake Corum, who I love. I also cannot trust Williams to stay healthy. Williams missed a healthy chunk of last season with injury and did not attend OTAs with a foot issue, giving Corum significant time as the RB1 for the Rams. Corum is the Rams’ running back that I will be drafting this year, not Williams. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

“Kyren Williams was excellent last season, but an ADP of RB8 for a running back with no draft capital and no track record is too rich for me. We’ve seen this in the past where Day 3 rookie running backs look like fantasy studs as rookies only to have competition drafted or acquired the following year leading them to take a huge step back. Adding low draft capital to the drafting of Blake Corum on Day 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft is a nightmare for his value. We seen it happen with Tyler Allgeier and Dameon Pierce, we might see it again with Kyren Williams.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)

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