Draft day is full of excitement and anticipation, but it also comes with its fair share of pitfalls. In 2024, some players have been consistently overvalued, becoming traps for unwary fantasy managers. To help you avoid these missteps, we’ve compiled a list of the worst value picks based on Average Draft Position (ADP), sourced from a collection of Featured Pros analysts. These insights aim to steer you clear of players who are unlikely to deliver on their draft-day promises, ensuring you make smarter picks and maximize your team’s potential.
Taking a look at our average draft position (ADP) and practicing mock drafts in Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you seek might come off the board. Not only that, but understanding each player’s range of outcomes will allow you to judge whether each one is fairly priced, undervalued or overvalued relative to their ADP.
Which players do our featured analysts believe are going too early? Read on to see some of their favorite undervalued draft targets.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Worst Value Picks by ADP: Quarterbacks
Who is the worst value pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
“Anthony Richardson is easily the most overhyped quarterback entering the year due to his poor passing history and overrated rushing ability. If we look at Richardson as a prospect, he is arguably the worst dual-threat prospect and falls well behind Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Josh Allen in passing yards, yards per attempt, completion percentage, touchdowns, and rushing yards (except Allen and Fields). Richardson had two wide receivers in his final season who were eventually drafted in the 1st and 5th rounds above comparable prospect Josh Allen, who had none. His rushing stats were impressive last year, but his PFF grade, including his rushing grade, was right next to Mac Jones and Desmond Ridder, showing it was more of a product of coverages compared to his abilities. He also posted a much lower PFF rating than each listed above in their rookie year despite having the best supporting cast as a rookie of these players.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
“Anthony Richardson would be the worst-value pick among the quarterbacks. It’s not because Richardson is bad, but there is a lot of unknown in his game to be drafted in early round five. We saw the rushing upside with 35-plus rushing yards in three of four games. His passing numbers were poor, with a 54% completion rate in two full games he started. The injury concerns that he already showed could be a sign of things to come. He has tremendous upside but is a high-risk player to take in the first five rounds of your draft.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
“Tua Tagovailoa (QB13 in ADP) shouldn’t be coming off the board ahead of Jayden Daniels (QB14). The veteran began last year on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. However, his production fell off a cliff in the second half, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Tagovailoa also struggles in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Despite having Tyreek Hill at his disposal, Tagovailoa (15.9) averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning (16) last season. He is on my do-not-drat list.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
“How people consider Kyler Murray a Top 10 QB baffles me. He is not a Top 10 QB in real life or statistically in the NFL. Kyler often has games under 200 yards passing, and his best rushing days are behind him now that he has had multiple injuries and knows the dangers of running around as an NFL QB. Let someone else take Kyler as a Top 10 QB, as he could easily finish closer to the QB20.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
“Justin Herbert. There is far more upside with some later-round selections. A player like Caleb Williams is likely to be a dual-threat play. And there are better pocket passers/players with better passing options, for example, Kirk Cousins. There just isn’t enough upside to take him currently.”
– Richard King (King Fantasy Sports)
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)
“I like C.J. Stroud a lot. But I simply cannot justify taking him back end of Round 4 in 12-team leagues. For one, rushing quarterbacks are king in this game and Stroud simply does not have the rushing upside to compete with the likes of Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, or Kyler Murray, all being drafted behind him. While I think Stroud will be fine, with something in the range of 4000+ yards and 25-28 touchdown passes being his floor, he is just not someone that I see returning value at a round 4 evaluation in fantasy, given the low rushing floor and ceiling.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Despite finishing his rookie season as QB11, CJ Stroud is now being drafted as QB5. I understand the case for chasing upside, but at that price, there is little to no room to turn a profit. He is now being drafted in a range with the four elite quarterbacks who all have a multi-year track record of elite play. I love Stroud, but not at this price. Relative to his ADP, he seems like an obvious bust candidate.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)
Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
“I think ADP is looking pretty good this year, but it does jump out to me that Josh Allen is going 10 picks ahead of Jalen Hurts. To me, those two should be very close, with Allen getting just the slight edge. So why Allen is situated correctly within his position, I do think he’s going way too early overall.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
“I’m torn here because, on one hand, I love Joe Burrow’s talent. He reminds me a little of Joe Montana. But on the other, he’s coming off major wrist surgery. Orthopedic surgeon Jeffrey Kutsikovich told A to Z Sports’ John Sheeran that Burrow will have to be cautious with his surgically repaired wrist, saying: “Ultimately, the wrist kind of bears the brunt of a fall, and the question is, ‘How is his body going to respond to the first few hits?'” Dr. Kutsikovich explained that while orthopedic surgeries usually have a success rate in the 90-95% range, Burrow’s surgery, a scapholunate ligament repair surgery, only has a success rate of about 75-80%. “The big long-term problem with this specific injury is the results of the repair are not as consistent with the results of repairs in, let’s say, other joints,” said Dr. Kutsikovich. QB 7 seems a little rich given the injury risk Burrow is facing in 2024.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
“There’s no egregious values at QB anymore, but Jared Goff at QB12 is one I’ll be passing by. He’s in a tier of non-rushing QBs where variance and efficiency both have to hit positively for him to pay off. Now it has two years running, with Goff finishing as the QB10 and QB7, respectively. But the safe floor is only worth it if you’re trying not to lose. I’m trying to win. So I’ll take upside shots on Jayden Daniels (QB14) and Caleb Williams (QB17) later or wait until the final rounds and go with similar producers in Matthew Stafford (QB19) and Geno Smith (QB23).”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
“Jalen Hurts is currently going as the consensus QB2. He is a great QB, but there is a decline in his future. Hurts’ value last year was in rushing touchdowns, and he ruled the NFL QB landscape with 15 thanks to the “tush push.” The Eagles paid Saquon Barkley to be their lead back, and he is going to steal those valuable touchdowns from Hurts. Hurts will still be a great asset for fantasy, but he will not give you the return on value at QB2.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Worst Value Picks by ADP: Running Backs
Who is the worst value pick at RB based on his current ADP and why?
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
“De’Von Achane does not have enough volume or carry percentage in this offense to pay off even close to his current price. The Dolphins have rotated their running backs heavily, and the lead RB has had less than 60% carry share each of the last two years. In his full games, excluding his two games with just one carry, he still averaged just 11.2 carries per game in 2023 behind late-round running back Gus Edwards (13.1), Brian Robinson (12.8), and close to Tyler Allgeier (10.8). Phillip Lindsay is the only comparable running back in size/YPC and had a large drop in efficiency the following year after his rookie year. It also hurts considerably that Miami lost two excellent offensive linemen in free agency and traded a 3rd-round pick for a similar running back in Jaylen Wright, who has a much more ideal build.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
“De’Von Achane (RB8 in ADP) was outstanding as a rookie, finishing as the RB4 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 16.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, he averaged 7.8 yards per rushing attempt, a 12.6% explosive run rate, and 1.36 fantasy points per opportunity (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, the numbers aren’t repeatable in 2024. More importantly, the explosive runner struggled to stay healthy as a rookie. After the Dolphins brought back Raheem Mostert and drafted Jaylen Wright, Achane shouldn’t get picked before featured running backs like Derrick Henry (RB10) and Isiah Pacheco (RB11).”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“Raheem Mostert ran for 18 TDs last season; not only did that number lead the NFL, but it is also a Dolphins Franchise record. De’Von Achane is being drafted like a Top 10 RB as if Mostert is not going to be on the team next season, which is far from the truth as Mostert is their lead RB and definite goal-line TD machine. Take away the 200+ Yard 2 TD performance against the Broncos for Achane, and most of his games were RB3 quality at best. You are spending a high price to draft an RB who will only play like an RB1 when the Dolphins offense is scoring 4+ TDs in a game, which will not be as often in 2024.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
“De’Von Achane is going way too early. While he’s shown some impressive explosiveness, there’s no reason to believe the Dolphins won’t continue using a committee. In fact, they even spent a 2025 3rd rounder to get Jaylen Wright. This will remain an ugly committee where Raheem Mostert or Wright gets those valuable goal-line carries.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)
“De’Von Achane is one of the most electric players in the NFL! Every time he touches the ball, he can take it to the house. His biggest problem is that he is on a team with many star players (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert) who will demand the ball and score touchdowns. Couple that with the history and possibility of injury and that makes Achane a risky pick at RB8.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
“De’Von Achane is someone I dislike for the value in terms of ADP. Achane is being drafted in the late second round for a player who is the backup in Miami. The upside he showed last year was excellent, with almost 1000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games. The team still has Raheem Mostert, the RB1, and drafted Jaylen Wright with decent capital. It could very much be a full-blown committee in Miami. Drafting Achane that early, you are banking on his efficiency to continue, and I’d hate to bet on that in round two. I expect his 7.8 YPC and eight rushing touchdowns to regress in 2024.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
James Cook (RB – BUF)
“James Cook. There is no (very little) question about the volume that he will get through the air and on the ground, but there is always going to be a lack of TDs. Josh Allen is too much of a fan of taking the ball into his own hands, and the draft selection of Ray Davis is going to impact him, too. Considering his draft cost, there are better options that can be had later.”
– Richard King (King Fantasy Sports)
“James Cook is really good, but the situation he’s in is less than ideal. Despite his talent, Cook is undersized at 190 lbs. He loses too many TDs to Josh Allen near the goal line. In nineteen games last season (regular season and playoffs), Cook rushed for a paltry two TDs! In addition, Allen’s athleticism hurts Cook’s reception potential since Allen is elusive enough to escape on his own when under duress. With a current ranking at RB 14, Ringo thinks drafters will get burned if they draft Cook at his 2024 price tag because the “steaks” are too high. I’ll see myself out now ha ha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
“Kyren Williams at 20th overall is just not a move I will be making this year in fantasy. While Williams was terrific a year ago, Williams was the RB1 in Los Angeles almost by default after Cam Akers was shipped out of town. This offseason, Sean McVay brought in some proper competition for Williams in Blake Corum, who I love. I also cannot trust Williams to stay healthy. Williams missed a healthy chunk of last season with injury and did not attend OTAs with a foot issue, giving Corum significant time as the RB1 for the Rams. Corum is the Rams’ running back that I will be drafting this year, not Williams. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Kyren Williams was excellent last season, but an ADP of RB8 for a running back with no draft capital and no track record is too rich for me. We’ve seen this in the past where Day 3 rookie running backs look like fantasy studs as rookies only to have competition drafted or acquired the following year leading them to take a huge step back. Adding low draft capital to the drafting of Blake Corum on Day 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft is a nightmare for his value. We seen it happen with Tyler Allgeier and Dameon Pierce, we might see it again with Kyren Williams.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
“It’s hard to be mad at where Josh Jacobs landed this offseason, moving from the perennially mediocre Raiders to the ascending Packers. Now with a legitimate passing game and heady QB, Jacobs shouldn’t be seeing the stacked boxes that have plagued him through most of his career. However, I’m still wary of his RB12 price tag in drafts. Given his rough showing in 2023, the drafting of MarShawn Lloyd, and reports that Head Coach Matt LaFleur expected Aaron Jones to re-sign in Green Bay to pair with Jacobs, we could be seeing less of the bellcow than we have come to expect. There are too many variables here for me to be comfortable with Jacobs at cost.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
Worst Value Picks by ADP: Wide Receivers
Who is the worst value pick at WR based on his current ADP and why?
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
“Brandon Aiyuk and the 49ers passing offense has an unsustainable level of efficiency going into next year. Aiyuk ranked just 30th in targets for wide receivers with 105, and this is a decrease from last year’s 114, which shows his massive target competition in a run-heavy offense. He had the 2nd best yards per reception at 17.9 which is due to massively regress similar to Jaylen Waddle last year. Yards per reception over 16.0 always regresses the next year, as stats have shown us. In 2022, Jaylen Waddle (18.1 Y/R) and AJ Brown (17.0 Y/R) were leaders in the category but fell to numbers similar to other elite wide receivers in 2023 with 14.1 (Y/R) and 13.7 (Y/R), respectively.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)
“Stefon Diggs (WR21 in the ADP) is massively overdrafted. He has a late third-round ADP, getting picked ahead of Malik Nabers (WR24), Amari Cooper (WR25), George Pickens (WR27), and Christian Kirk (WR30). There are two reasons why I won’t draft the veteran in 2024. He has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from 2023 in Houston. The veteran should clearly be the third Texans receiver drafted and a sixth-round pick.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“I can’t understand the merit in taking Stefon Diggs in the 3rd round. Nico Collins looked great last year, and Tank Dell is a real Stroud favorite. Joe Mixon will make the run game more reliable, but Dalton Schultz isn’t going anywhere, either. This offense is going to be good, but do you really want the WR3 who looked washed at times last year?”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)
Tank Dell (WR – HOU)
“Tank Dell being drafted as a Top 30 WR (currently #29) only makes sense if the Texans did not just bring over Stefon Diggs. To think there are going to be enough targets on the table among Collins/Diggs/Schultz and Tank Dell to be a consistent WR2 who is going in the first six rounds of every Fantasy Football draft is crazy. Last season in games where Tank saw six targets or fewer, Tank was putting up waiver wire numbers. I do not see Stroud forcing the ball to Tank unless a deep bomb is called, and that number is not going to be more than a few times a game. Let everyone else take Tank early on and Tank their draft.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
“Malik Nabers. I get it. He is potentially the only target of note for the Giants. But is he going to be able to be a WR2 for fantasy in his rookie season, with Daniel Jones throwing him the ball? With the overall offense lacking true playmakers, his floor is going to be solid- especially in PPR leagues. But what does his ceiling look like? This could be a long season for him- even with the talent that he has.”
– Richard King (King Fantasy Sports)
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
“After a less than stellar 2023, many hoped Jaylen Waddle could be had at some sort of discount headed into 2024. Well, friends, at WR15 and player 28, that has not happened. Waddle simply disappointed fantasy managers a year ago, and while I agree that last year is not indicative of his overall talent, I will want to watch this one play out with Waddle not on my roster. Tyreek Hill is still a member of the Dolphins, and as long as he is there, he will remain the alpha in this offense, while Waddle will have to settle as his running mate.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
“Justin Jefferson lost his QB, Kirk Cousins, to free agency, and for the time being, it’s Sam Darnold throwing him the rock. Note- the most TDs Darnold has ever thrown in a season is 19! However, I’ll reconsider Jefferson if rookie QB J.J. McCarthy has a solid preseason and starts sooner rather than later, but until then, I’m not as confident in Sam Darnold running the Vikings’ offense as my peers in the fantasy industry are. With a current ranking at WR 4, Ringo says no thanks. Justin “Don’t call him George” Jefferson is all yours. Weezy!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
“Nico Collins is a phenomenal talent who just hit a huge payday this offseason. And, still, I can’t pull the trigger on him at WR13. While he’s certain to have some monster weeks, a healthy Tank Dell and the addition of Stefon Diggs have me wondering if any of them will provide the consistency we’ve come to covet in fantasy. As the most expensive option in the room, I’d much prefer teammate Dell (WR29) at cost. Even Diggs (WR21) is palatable, as I expect all to produce fairly similar numbers. I’ll happily take Jaylen Waddle (WR15), Mike Evans (WR17), and Michael Pittman (WR18) over Nico this year.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
“DJ Moore had a great year in 2023 with 96 receptions for 1,364 yards and 8 TDs. This year, he gets a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, which rarely bodes well in the first year for wide receivers. Keenan Allen was also traded to the Bears, and he will demand many targets. Rookie Rome Odunze could steal targets as well as he gets acclimated to the NFL. All those factors could lead to a disappointing year for DJ Moore after a huge breakout.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Keenan Allen (WR – CHI)
“Keenan Allen is someone whose value is bad at ADP right now. He is going in round five, which seems early for an aging player on a new team. Allen has been a high target share receiver in his career, but he will have a lot of competition for targets. He is working with a rookie quarterback who likes to hold the ball too long. Caleb Williams likes to wait for plays to extend before making throws, and that doesn’t fit Allen’s playstyle. This could be the first time in Allen’s career that he plays a full season and doesn’t get 100 targets. I don’t want to trust a 32-year-old receiver switching to a cold-weather team with a rookie quarterback.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
“Keenan Allen is going as WR29 in the current ADP, which doesn’t sound like much for the perennial Top-12 receiver, but considering he is now 32 years old and joined a new team with a crowded receiving corps, he seems destined for failure. There are too many mouths to be fed by a rookie quarterback in Chicago and two of the are likely to two of them will disappoint.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
