Worst Value Picks by ADP: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Brandon Aiyuk

Draft day is full of excitement and anticipation, but it also comes with its fair share of pitfalls. In 2024, some players have been consistently overvalued, becoming traps for unwary fantasy managers. To help you avoid these missteps, we’ve compiled a list of the worst value picks based on Average Draft Position (ADP), sourced from a collection of Featured Pros analysts. These insights aim to steer you clear of players who are unlikely to deliver on their draft-day promises, ensuring you make smarter picks and maximize your team’s potential.

Taking a look at our average draft position (ADP) and practicing mock drafts in Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you seek might come off the board. Not only that, but understanding each player’s range of outcomes will allow you to judge whether each one is fairly priced, undervalued or overvalued relative to their ADP.

Want to see more Worst Value Picks by ADP according to the experts we asked? Check out our complete 22 Worst Fantasy Football Draft Value Picks by ADP article.

Worst Value Picks by ADP: Wide Receivers

Who is the worst value pick at WR based on his current ADP and why?

DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

“DJ Moore had a great year in 2023 with 96 receptions for 1,364 yards and 8 TDs. This year, he gets a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, which rarely bodes well in the first year for wide receivers. Keenan Allen was also traded to the Bears, and he will demand many targets. Rookie Rome Odunze could steal targets as well as he gets acclimated to the NFL. All those factors could lead to a disappointing year for DJ Moore after a huge breakout.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

Keenan Allen (WR – CHI)

“Keenan Allen is someone whose value is bad at ADP right now. He is going in round five, which seems early for an aging player on a new team. Allen has been a high target share receiver in his career, but he will have a lot of competition for targets. He is working with a rookie quarterback who likes to hold the ball too long. Caleb Williams likes to wait for plays to extend before making throws, and that doesn’t fit Allen’s playstyle. This could be the first time in Allen’s career that he plays a full season and doesn’t get 100 targets. I don’t want to trust a 32-year-old receiver switching to a cold-weather team with a rookie quarterback.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

“Keenan Allen is going as WR29 in the current ADP, which doesn’t sound like much for the perennial Top-12 receiver, but considering he is now 32 years old and joined a new team with a crowded receiving corps, he seems destined for failure. There are too many mouths to be fed by a rookie quarterback in Chicago and two of the are likely to two of them will disappoint.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)

“Brandon Aiyuk and the 49ers passing offense has an unsustainable level of efficiency going into next year. Aiyuk ranked just 30th in targets for wide receivers with 105, and this is a decrease from last year’s 114, which shows his massive target competition in a run-heavy offense. He had the 2nd best yards per reception at 17.9 which is due to massively regress similar to Jaylen Waddle last year. Yards per reception over 16.0 always regresses the next year, as stats have shown us. In 2022, Jaylen Waddle (18.1 Y/R) and AJ Brown (17.0 Y/R) were leaders in the category but fell to numbers similar to other elite wide receivers in 2023 with 14.1 (Y/R) and 13.7 (Y/R), respectively.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)