Worst Value Picks by ADP: C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen

Draft day is full of excitement and anticipation, but it also comes with its fair share of pitfalls. In 2024, some players have been consistently overvalued, becoming traps for unwary fantasy managers. To help you avoid these missteps, we’ve compiled a list of the worst value picks based on Average Draft Position (ADP), sourced from a collection of Featured Pros analysts. These insights aim to steer you clear of players who are unlikely to deliver on their draft-day promises, ensuring you make smarter picks and maximize your team’s potential.

Taking a look at our average draft position (ADP) and practicing mock drafts in Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you seek might come off the board. Not only that, but understanding each player’s range of outcomes will allow you to judge whether each one is fairly priced, undervalued or overvalued relative to their ADP.

Want to see more Worst Value Picks by ADP according to the experts we asked? Check out our complete 22 Worst Fantasy Football Draft Value Picks by ADP article.

Worst Value Picks by ADP: Quarterbacks

Who is the worst value pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

“Justin Herbert. There is far more upside with some later-round selections. A player like Caleb Williams is likely to be a dual-threat play. And there are better pocket passers/players with better passing options, for example, Kirk Cousins. There just isn’t enough upside to take him currently.”
– Richard King (King Fantasy Sports)

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)

“I like C.J. Stroud a lot. But I simply cannot justify taking him back end of Round 4 in 12-team leagues. For one, rushing quarterbacks are king in this game and Stroud simply does not have the rushing upside to compete with the likes of Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, or Kyler Murray, all being drafted behind him. While I think Stroud will be fine, with something in the range of 4000+ yards and 25-28 touchdown passes being his floor, he is just not someone that I see returning value at a round 4 evaluation in fantasy, given the low rushing floor and ceiling.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

“Despite finishing his rookie season as QB11, CJ Stroud is now being drafted as QB5. I understand the case for chasing upside, but at that price, there is little to no room to turn a profit. He is now being drafted in a range with the four elite quarterbacks who all have a multi-year track record of elite play. I love Stroud, but not at this price. Relative to his ADP, he seems like an obvious bust candidate.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)

Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

“I think ADP is looking pretty good this year, but it does jump out to me that Josh Allen is going 10 picks ahead of Jalen Hurts. To me, those two should be very close, with Allen getting just the slight edge. So why Allen is situated correctly within his position, I do think he’s going way too early overall.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)