Worst Value Picks by ADP: Anthony Richardson, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray

Draft day is full of excitement and anticipation, but it also comes with its fair share of pitfalls. In 2024, some players have been consistently overvalued, becoming traps for unwary fantasy managers. To help you avoid these missteps, we’ve compiled a list of the worst value picks based on Average Draft Position (ADP), sourced from a collection of Featured Pros analysts. These insights aim to steer you clear of players who are unlikely to deliver on their draft-day promises, ensuring you make smarter picks and maximize your team’s potential.

Taking a look at our average draft position (ADP) and practicing mock drafts in Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you seek might come off the board. Not only that, but understanding each player’s range of outcomes will allow you to judge whether each one is fairly priced, undervalued or overvalued relative to their ADP.

Want to see more Worst Value Picks by ADP according to the experts we asked? Check out our complete 22 Worst Fantasy Football Draft Value Picks by ADP article.

Worst Value Picks by ADP: Quarterbacks

Who is the worst value pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)

“Anthony Richardson is easily the most overhyped quarterback entering the year due to his poor passing history and overrated rushing ability. If we look at Richardson as a prospect, he is arguably the worst dual-threat prospect and falls well behind Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Josh Allen in passing yards, yards per attempt, completion percentage, touchdowns, and rushing yards (except Allen and Fields). Richardson had two wide receivers in his final season who were eventually drafted in the 1st and 5th rounds above comparable prospect Josh Allen, who had none. His rushing stats were impressive last year, but his PFF grade, including his rushing grade, was right next to Mac Jones and Desmond Ridder, showing it was more of a product of coverages compared to his abilities. He also posted a much lower PFF rating than each listed above in their rookie year despite having the best supporting cast as a rookie of these players.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)

“Anthony Richardson would be the worst-value pick among the quarterbacks. It’s not because Richardson is bad, but there is a lot of unknown in his game to be drafted in early round five. We saw the rushing upside with 35-plus rushing yards in three of four games. His passing numbers were poor, with a 54% completion rate in two full games he started. The injury concerns that he already showed could be a sign of things to come. He has tremendous upside but is a high-risk player to take in the first five rounds of your draft.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)

“Tua Tagovailoa (QB13 in ADP) shouldn’t be coming off the board ahead of Jayden Daniels (QB14). The veteran began last year on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. However, his production fell off a cliff in the second half, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Tagovailoa also struggles in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Despite having Tyreek Hill at his disposal, Tagovailoa (15.9) averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning (16) last season. He is on my do-not-drat list.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)

“How people consider Kyler Murray a Top 10 QB baffles me. He is not a Top 10 QB in real life or statistically in the NFL. Kyler often has games under 200 yards passing, and his best rushing days are behind him now that he has had multiple injuries and knows the dangers of running around as an NFL QB. Let someone else take Kyler as a Top 10 QB, as he could easily finish closer to the QB20.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

Fantasy Draft Advice NFL Anthony Richardson Lamar Jackson Jalen Hurts Justin Fields Josh Allen Mac Jones Desmond Ridder Tua Tagovailoa Jayden Daniels Tyreek Hill Russell Wilson Jake Browning Kyler Murray