Writing about players to avoid/potential busts is one of my favorite annual topics in fantasy football. It’s far too easy to fall in love with every player, but realistically, you can’t afford to have equal exposure to every player, especially those high up on the draft board. You need to be more critical and sometimes bearish compared to the consensus on certain player average draft positions (ADPs).
Before the 2023 season, I published two pieces addressing this strategy: Fantasy Football Bust Guide: Draft Strategy & Advice (2023) and Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football). These articles significantly helped position me to sidestep potential pitfalls. In this comprehensive piece, we’ll integrate insights from both articles to help you construct your 2024 list of fantasy football fades.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Tight Ends to Avoid
As usual, we’ll start by exploring the general characteristics of what makes a player a bust, reviewing the hits and misses from last season, and then applying those lessons to the upcoming fantasy football year.
Findings Busts
You know the old phrase…”Strangers are the friends you haven’t met yet?” Well, in fantasy football land, I think there’s a similar idiom. Busts are often the breakouts that fail to fire. Before players are labeled as “busts” after the season (or early-to-middle, depending on how bad the player was), there’s usually a legitimate case for why they are being drafted so highly. The case for unthinkingly drafting “upside” is often accompanied by a significant amount of risk that some drafters overlook entirely. I tend to also agree with this upside-driven approach – if you ain’t first, you’re last, Ricky Bobby – but it’s still important to recognize the risk and sheer bust potential with certain players heading into the 2024 fantasy football season.
In part three of this Players to Avoid series (QBs and RBs are completed), I’ll break down what a bust looks like among tight ends while calling out which TEs come with the most red flags that have me overly concerned about their bust potential in 2024. And although I am not an injury expert, I will be coming to the table with some injury notes on players. Because many busts fail to perform due to injuries, it’s not something you should ignore, especially with the increased data on injuries from several experts. I’ll also leverage adjusted games lost due to injuries – a metric that measures injury impact similarly to DVOA.
I’ll also do my best to separate bust players from the players listed in my “Buyer Beware” section. Not all players I’m shying away from will be busts. Specifically, with certain positions, as I’ll touch on soon, some players may finish exactly where their ADPs are. But that’s not how I am playing the game. I don’t want players to meet expectations; I want them to exceed expectations. At the same time, I want to circumvent the players who may drastically fail to meet their expectations.
These are the fantasy football busts.
Gabe Davis wasn’t a bust in 2022 because he played like trash. He was the WR27. He scored the same points per game as Zay Jones…who many look back on and are fond of from 2022 as a great sleeper pick.
The same can be said for Calvin Ridley. In a vacuum, a 76-1016-8 stat line as the WR17 is good in his first full season after a lengthy layoff from football. But his Round 3 ADP gave him no cushion. As a result, he was a bust compared to a WR like Jakobi Meyers, who scored nearly the same points per game as a 14th-round pick.
Davis and Ridley were fantasy football busts because the drafting complex ballooned their ADPs to a point where they had little chance of exceeding their price tags. It’s situations like this you need to stay clear of in 2024. Because when it comes to identifying busts in fantasy football, it’s all about the price you pay and the opportunity cost.
Tight Ends
Unlike the quarterback position, which is one of the more difficult positions to identify busts, it’s not hard to find tight ends who bust—because most of them do. The issue is that every year, we have a certain crop of tight ends who are viewed as “worthy” of being drafted inside the single-digit rounds. These are the “elite” tight ends.
But the issue is when the production isn’t elite, these players take a massive toll on your lineup. Especially in redraft, you’ll be less likely to pivot off a tight end that isn’t performing based on the amount of draft capital you paid to get them. The “sunk cost” fallacy. You ride a “mid” tight end because you expected elite production. And while you wait for the production that never comes…you miss out on the guys breaking out on the waiver wire.
And that’s why going late-round tight end remains a viable strategy, especially in redraft formats. You avoid all costs associated with high-priced tight ends and avoid the bust potential altogether. You might miss on the early-drafted tight ends that do hit (a small number, no doubt), but your roster is taking on much less risk.
Last year, the late-round tight end was the way to go.
The early-round TEs were busts all over the place between Travis Kelce (TE1, failed as a first-round pick), Mark Andrews (TE2), Darren Waller (TE5), Kyle Pitts (TE6), Dallas Goedert (TE7), Pat Freiermuth (TE9), Tyler Higbee (TE12), Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE15), Zach Ertz (TE16), Luke Musgrave (TE17) and Greg Dulcich (TE18). Most guys at the top were productive on a per-game basis, but they suffered injuries that derailed their cumulative scores.
Long story short, more than half of the top 12 tight ends by ADP were busts. Same story as the 2022 season.
So, if you want to avoid busting tight ends, your best bet is to just go with a late-round approach.
Typically you want to avoid the “middle” at the tight end position. You’ll find that the middle-tier tight ends tend to finish closer to the tight ends drafted AFTER them than the ones drafted AHEAD of them.
The only two exceptions would be if a tight end I view in a higher tier falls into the middle rounds or for best ball stacking purposes. But even when it comes to stacking, I am not aggressively stacking middle-round tight ends and would hope they fall past their ADP before selecting them.
You are better off waiting and drafting more tight ends later. Not to say that drafting an early tight end doesn’t work, but hitting on a tight end who plays like a top-10 guy gives you a better advantage (bang for your buck) than taking on the risk of an early one that needs to perform just to hit ADP expectations.
Every year, we get tight ends who vastly outperform their ADPs. Focus your strategy on finding these players to build a potential super team spearheaded by top-tier RBs/WRs/QBs in the early rounds.
Before I dive further into the “elite” tight end discourse and its bust potential, I want to quickly recap my hits and misses with tight ends last season.
2023 Recap
I was vehemently fading George Kittle last season, but I think I came at his outlook with the wrong approach. I discussed his slight drop-off in efficiency, a lot with his lackluster target share in the 49ers offense. I argued that he would be super inconsistent – and that was 100% accurate.
In 2022, his 50 percent bust rate last season led all tight end scorers inside the top seven at the position. In 2023, Kittle’s 38% bust rate was tied with Cole Kmet and Jake Ferguson as the highest among top-8 tight ends.
But it didn’t matter that he was inconsistent, as his “boom” games were enough to provide week-winning performances. No tight end had more top-6 finishes than Kittle (7). Only Kelce had more top-12 finishes than Kittle. He also had 6 games with 30 or fewer receiving yards (same as 2022).
Consistency tends to be a topic that’s overrated in fantasy football, especially at tight end. I should have embraced more of Kittle’s weekly upside as a reason to draft him, given his extremely strong track record of top-5 TE finishes dating back to 2018.
If you draft Kittle in 2024 redraft, you are in for a bumpy ride. But as long as you are okay with taking a few duds here and there, the weekly upside makes him worth it, especially at his new price as the TE6-8 – his lowest ADP range since his initial breakout after his second season.
My concern about Kittle’s volatility makes me want to be more open to the extremely boom-or-bust tight ends that can provide week-winning upside, especially in the best ball format. Some of these guys for 2024 include Taysom Hill, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet and Jake Ferguson. At least in 2023, these tight ends showed several spiked week ceilings.
I was also off Evan Engram as the TE8 in 2023, but he rubbed it in my face for the second straight season. Even though Engram didn’t showcase a strong weekly ceiling for another season – 50% top-12 rate and just three top-6 finishes. He blew up down the stretch with Christian Kirk out of the lineup.
From Weeks 1-12, while Kirk was healthy, Engram was the TE12 overall and TE14 in points per game. Weeks 13-18? First in total points and points per game among TEs.
So, was I wrong for fading Engram overall, given how ineffective he was with Kirk in the lineup? Yes and no.
If anything, it’s a reminder that TEs tend to not be the focal point of most passing games, and they benefit the most when injuries occur. Should also be noted that Engram was still third in TE targets/catches while Kirk was healthy, and it was a severe lack of TDs (0) that was causing his lack of production. His red-zone usage was non-existent. Four red-zone targets through 12 weeks. 10 total on the year with 3 TDs. He might have seen more red zone targets in the Jaguars final 2024 preseason game.
Chasing the Engram archetype (benefits from injuries to teammates) is easier said than done. But if we look at just overall team health, we can identify teams that project to be healthier based on many injuries that hit them last season. We can assume that these teams are less likely to produce top-tier TE ends out of the woodwork.
The teams with the most injured WRs last season included the Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Buccaneers, Texans, Jaguars, Titans, Saints, Chiefs, and Eagles. We could see TEs from these teams, such as Hayden Hurst, Hunter Henry, Greg Dulcich, Cade Otton, Dalton Schultz, Engram, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Juwan Johnson, Travis Kelce, and Dallas Goedert, fail to benefit from teammate injuries.
Conversely, teams with the fewest WR injuries where we could see a TE emerge out of necessity include Buffalo, Dallas, Cleveland, Atlanta, New York (Jets), Indianapolis, Seattle, Las Vegas, Washington and Chicago. Potential ceiling outcomes for TEs such as Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Conklin, Noah Fant, Brock Bowers/Michael Mayer and Cole Kmet.
This isn’t an exact science but rather another layer you can consider in your tight-end 2024 analysis.
I was also off the Cole Kmet TE15 price tag in 2023, citing the additional target competition from D.J. Moore. For the second straight season, he was a low-end TE1 with a robust role in the offense overall—6th in snap rate (85%), 16th in route participation, 12th in routes, 11th in target share (18%)—and in the red zone. He was 5th in red-zone targets with 5 red-zone TDs.
He was eighth in fantasy points per game and ninth in expected fantasy points per game. The classic definition of a low-end fantasy TE1.
But will Kmet make it a three-peat as the TE7 overall in half-PPR? I just can’t come around to it. There’s even more competition than there was last season after the additions of Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett (a Shane Waldron favorite). We saw how Waldron “used” tight ends in Seattle for fantasy. It was a dreaded committee that Noah Fant could never produce in.
Given Kmet’s price as the TE16 (same as last season), I have little hope he’s the late-round tight end you’re going to need. Looks like a small-win player at best if he runs hot on TDs.
It’s a new offensive coaching staff in Chicago that has no allegiance to Kmet being deployed the same way he was last season. Throughout the preseason games, Kmet was in a constant rotation with Waldron’s favorite tight end, Gerald Everett.
This is a point I brought up last season when it came to Greg Dulcich, who was already trending in the bust direction before his injuries. Sean Payton came in and used the tight ends he brought with him.
Therefore, you need to be wary of incumbent tight ends that new coaches are “inheriting.” Outside the very top tight ends, the production by the position is almost completely associated with the role on the offense – which is dictated by the coaching staff.
The top names that would fall into this category include Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth, Kmet, Hunter Henry, Cade Otton, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Juwan Johnson, Noah Fant, Michael Mayer and Tommy Tremble/Ian Thomas.
Note that if a previous regime used the player poorly, it likely can’t get worse under new coaches. For example, Fant still has top-tier WR competition but will likely be the most featured TE in Seattle – a big improvement from last season.
The ones I envision could be in the most trouble under new coaching staffs include Njoku, Kmet, Otton, Okonkwo, Johnson, Mayer and the Panthers TEs. I think Otton might be the worst of the bunch given his status as TE25 in ADP is 100% based on him running a lot of routes and playing a massive snap share. But in a new offense, that singular every-down role may not even exist. Don’t settle for mediocrity, especially with him likely a complete afterthought as a “piece” for the offense to feature.
Last year, Kyle Pitts made the “buyer beware” category for obvious reasons.
- Target competition with Drake London
- Backseat to a ground game led by Bijan Robinson.
- Coming off a season-ending injury
- Playing with a quarterback we have never seen him with.
But here’s the thing with Pitts. The market’s unrealistic expectations placed on him the last three seasons have been the reason he’s been a bust. But fantasy gamers are finally fed up with his ADP the same as it was last season, despite many of the concerns completely vanishing from last season. He’s healthy now. Kirk Cousins is his QB. If you never drafted Pitts, then sure. Keep it up. Been working so far. But if you’ve been drafting him for the last several years, this is not the time to hop off the bandwagon for a super-young player entering his fourth season. He is 23 years old. And it’s not like he’s never produced at the NFL level. He posted a HISTORIC rookie season with 1,000 yards as the TE7 overall and TE13 in PPG back in 2021.
I try to pay very close attention to yards after the catch for TEs because it’s another out for a player if you can’t rely on volume. That’s why Jonnu Smith is so intriguing in Miami. He doesn’t project for a lot of targets, but given his YAC-ability in that McDaniel scheme, the former Falcon should be able to at least be efficient with the targets he receives.
The only high-profile TEs that didn’t grade well in YAC (Pitts playing with injuries withstanding) include Schultz, Kmet and Luke Musgrave.
My last fade in 2023 was Chigoziem Okonkwo. He was viewed as a clear-cut breakout TE target after a strong rookie season. However, there was clear anchor biasing going on with his projection after the team added DeAndre Hopkins. That moved him to the projected No. 3 pass-catcher on his offense, which makes his bust potential extremely high. Fast forward to 2024, and Okonkwo is competing with Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd in an offense that historically has not featured much of the tight end position. Hard to get excited about that. Especially with him projecting for a timeshare with fellow Titans TE Josh Whyle.
As cited by fantasy football tight end oracle Andrew Cooper, top TEs are almost always the No. 1 or No. 2 target on their respective offenses. Anything behind that is risky not only from a floor perspective but from a ceiling perspective.
That brings us to the specific tight ends with the biggest chance of busting (or failing to meet expectations) in 2024.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)
I just mentioned how being the No. 1 or No. 2 target is critical for a tight end to be a top fantasy producer. So that brings up the question: How many times has the TE1 not been the No. 1 target on his team? Last year, it happened with Lions rookie Sam LaPorta.
But it was the first time since 2017 that a tight end finished as the TE1 overall with fewer than 135 targets while also failing to lead his offense in total targets.
Simply put, LaPorta’s status as the late-round tight end was two-fold. Not only did he perform well above expectations (with a clear path to targets, mind you, in Year 1), but it also occurred in a season where the elite TEs failed to fire.
Keep in mind that Rob Gronkowski was the last TE to be TE1 without leading his team in targets that season. He averaged 13.8 points per game in half-PPR.
LaPorta’s 11.6 points per game as the TE1 last season is the weakest TE1 season we have seen since 2016 (Travis Kelce). Before Kelce was providing an elite level advantage among TEs.
In most years, LaPorta would finish closer to TE4 with that production. And that’s why I think he’s vastly overvalued. As the TE1 overall and to the other “elite” tight ends that are drafted one or two rounds after him.
He scored 10 TDs, nearly three of above expectation per PFF. His expected fantasy points per game ranked sixth in the NFL last season among TEs (again per PFF). The FantasyPros Touchdown Regression Report suggests LaPorta is a massive candidate for TD regression closer to the mean.
His points per game through 18 weeks were identical to Mark Andrews and below Kelce and Hockenson. I don’t get the temptation for drafters to select LaPorta – who we can almost all agree won’t see more targets than a healthy Amon-Ra St. Brown given all the other weapons in Detroit’s offense – when Andrews and Dalton Kincaid go nearly three rounds later as much better bets to be the No. 1 targets in their respective offenses.
LaPorta in 2024 is like how Jonathan Taylor was drafted two years ago. He was coming off an overall RB1 season driven by TDs in a year where RB scoring was down. The injuries were not easily predictable the following season, but his status as RB1 should have been discussed more. He was propped up by an unusual down year at his position. And that’s what drafters are doing with LaPorta in 2024. Drafting the TE that saw the biggest boost due to TDs, even though he ranked 7th in receiving yards per game among TEs.
He HAS to be better than he was last year if he wants to repeat his efforts as the TE1 in fantasy football.
Dalton Schultz (HOU – TE)
I didn’t like the price of Dalton Schultz last year, citing that he would be in a much worse offense going from Dallas to Houston. That take didn’t age well, given C.J. Stroud‘s impact as a rookie. But even so, Schultz just met ADP expectations as the TE11. And there were times last year when he was posting bad usage trends when Brevin Jordan was in the lineup.
Fast forward to 2024, and he’s back in Houston. But now he’s viewed as the No. 4 pass-catcher behind 3 top WRs. The team also drafted C.J. Stroud‘s former college tight end, Cade Stover, in the fourth round. Considering Schultz’s production got hit when Jordan played more last season, I can’t wrap my mind around Schultz as a priority tight end target as the TE13. He will have to score a ton of TDs to bury you. And they will likely have to come in the red zone, given Schultz’s severe lack of YAC-ability.
Luke Musgrave (TE – GB)
It didn’t start as a great offseason for Tucker Kraft stans. He missed OTAs dealing with a pectoral injury, although he was expected back sometime during training camp. Therefore, Luke Musgrave got the green light as the TE1 – like his did last season after being drafted first among the two tight ends. But Kraft was simply better last season when he got the opportunity to play in the offense, and that’s what I am projecting for 2024.
He finished 5th in YAC/reception (7.0) compared to Musgrave’s 5.1 (14th). ESPN Analytics ranked Kraft 4th in YAC, while Musgrave ranked 41st. Kraft ranked 15th overall.
From Weeks 12-18, Kraft ranked tenth in receiving yards, eighth in catches and fifth in routes run among TEs.
And when they played together, Kraft dominated the snaps and playing time over Musgrave.
Last time they took the field in the Packers’ postseason finale, Kraft commanded six targets (18.2%), catching three receptions for nine yards and a touchdown with multiple red-zone looks. Musgrave was involved early on but was still drastically behind Kraft in snaps (85% vs. 28%).
This is a player stance take. I like Kraft (TE37) more than Musgrave (TE18), so I will gladly accept the ADP discount and fade the more expensive guy. I also prefer more established veterans, such as Hunter Henry or Tyler Conklin, who are being drafted after Musgrave.
Note that Kraft immediately drew rave reviews once he returned to training camp. Musgrave had the entire offseason to cement his status at GB TE1. He failed to do so. Take advantage. Kraft single baby.
Deep leagues…
TE Tucker Kraft
Been drawing raving reviews out of Packers camp since returning from the pec injury. His YAC has been fully on display.
Luke Musgrave had a golden opportunity to put to rest any GB TE1 debate this summer.https://t.co/RJX6ZfUctZ
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 27, 2024
Honorable Mentions
I mentioned these guys briefly during the introduction and recap earlier, but wanted to call out the names again.
- Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
- Cade Otton (TE – TB)
- Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)
Buyer Beware
Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
Although Travis Kelce was not featured in the Busts piece last season, he was a player that I was underexposed to overall. I cited how Kelce distanced himself so much from the field in 2022. But that looked more than an outlier rather than an actual projection. Especially as he entered his age-34 season. We saw the gap narrow between Kelce and the other TEs between LaPorta, Hockenson, Andrews, Engram, Kittle and David Njoku.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Kelce can’t still be an “elite” tight end by market standards. He can still finish inside the top 5, top 3, or even first overall. Keep in mind that Kelce finished the season (including playoffs) 6th in route participation and 1st in half-point fantasy points per game (12.8) due to his late-season surge in the postseason. But it was his worst fantasy points-per-game output since 2017, as he averaged just over 70 yards per game.
It was a “down” year by Kelce standards and for those who drafted him in Round 1, but he is still better than every other tight end. And he still posted more top-12 finishes than any other tight end (11).
But the days of him being a cheat code to the extent it’s been in past years are likely long gone as he turns 35. The real-life Kansas City Chiefs want to make sure their star tight end is available as they make a run for a third consecutive championship. Not to mention, the Chiefs WR room is vastly upgraded from last season, putting less focus on Kelce as the focal point in the offense.
We saw the ceiling from Kelce drop substantially as his top-6 finisher rate went from 75% to 27%. But the floor as a locked-and-loaded weekly TE1 barely budged.
And Kelce’s lower ceiling is reflected in his new late Round 3, early Round 4 ADP. Therefore, I don’t think Kelce will be a bust in 2024, especially with the TD potential he has attached to Patrick Mahomes. Kelce finished second in red zone targets last season and first in expected receiving TDs (9.4). He only scored 5 TDs during the regular season, four of which came in Weeks 1-7.
If Kelce’s role is limited in any capacity during the regular season, it probably won’t be in the red zone, where he sees his snap reduction. What no longer works in his favor is that there likley won’t be a Rashee Rice suspension to start the season, making it harder for him to produce from the get-go.
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
What David Njoku did late last season should not be ignored.
The Browns’ tight end was FULLY unlocked with Joe Flacco as his QB. In Flacco’s five starts, Njoku has a 22% target share, averaging nine targets per game. 17.1 expected points per game in half-point scoring. But even before Flacco got there, Njoku had been HEATING up. Weeks 7-17, Njoku ranked first in expected fantasy points per game at 16.8 among all tight ends. Deshaun Watson was his QB in just two of those contests.
But in terms of projecting him into 2024, he checks off a lot of the boxes you don’t want from a tight end. He’s going in the middle tier as the TE10. He has a new offensive coordinator and a different QB than the ones that were present during his late-season surge. He did the majority of his damage with Joe Flacco as his QB. He also ranked second in total red-zone targets among tight ends in the last two seasons under his former OC Alex Van Pelt (now with the Patriots).
There’s no denying Njoku’s talent as a player, but there are enough question marks about his current situation to forego him as a priority target in fantasy drafts unless he falls into the late-round tier.
I wrote this about Njoku in June, and everything I said still stands. I guess I’m a bit more optimistic that he will still remain a central figure of the offense, based on the offseason reports. But that’s the obvious upside case, which is never a given. Needless to say, if Njoku falls I think he’s still worth the value. But rest assured I won’t go into my league with only Njoku as my tight end in case this new offense does him no favors.
Note in a poll of 50 experts, Njoku received the most votes to be the 2024 TE bust. He received the second-most votes (11) among ALL players.
Brock Bowers (TE – LV)
For those with high hopes on rookie tight end Brock Bowers delivering in Year 1, you might be out of luck.
Currently, he is the TE11 in best ball ADP after being selected 13th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
But the Georgia product is not being slept on in any capacity compared to last year’s first-round TEs between Mayer (TE21) and Kincaid (TE25). Kincaid’s price only got up to TE16 after he was drafted by Buffalo in Round 1.
However, Bowers is being drafted very close to his ceiling as a locked-in fantasy TE1, and I can’t support that price given his unfavorable landing spot. Part of the reason why highly drafted rookie tight ends have failed is they go to bad teams with bad QBs.
Hello, 2024 Las Vegas Raiders. The OTA reports on this QB room have been anything but glowing. Early indications suggest that Aidan O’Connell is in the driver’s seat to be the QB1, per the Athletic’s Tashan Reed. Gardner Minshew ended up “winning” the job, but it’s more like he didn’t lose it.
Still, I just can’t wrap my mind around this landing spot to be favorable for Year 1 production for a rookie tight end, where his deployment is critical to his success.
Are we honestly convinced that new Raiders OC Luke Getsy is going to create an offense that takes advantage of Bowers as a true big slot while feeding WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers?
Getsy hardly got the most out of the Bears’ offense the last few seasons and was the Raiders’ third choice at OC after they missed out on Kliff Kingsbury and Chip Kelly, per the Athletic. Seems like this might just be a move to appease Adams.
And they liked Getsy more so for the run game. How excited can we be about Bowers if HC Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball 30-plus times per game? With questionable at best quarterback play? With last year’s tight end Michael Mayer still in the picture? Who they still ‘love’?
Mayer was viewed as a Round 1 tight end and did nothing as a rookie tight end last year. Even if Bowers is superior, is it enough to convince us he can have a Sam LaPorta-esque season? I am not convinced.
We know that tight ends can be the most landing-dependent offensive pieces. Kyle Pitts was a good rookie with Matt Ryan and has done nothing since.
I will say in Bowers’ defense that he is going late enough overall (outside the top 100) that he does fall into the late-round TE territory. The upside is apparent with his college pedigree. And the preseason usage (lining up everywhere) was encouraging. But adding a foot injury that’s caused him to miss recent weeks of training camp has me more concerned it might be a while till Bowers fires.
Brock Bowers' 2024 ADP (outside the top 100) is the cheapest price for a consensus 1.04 rookie dynasty selection.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 4, 2024
I don’t hate the idea of pairing him late with another guy early on to see if the talent is truly at an elite level, which has him rising in the rankings quickly. But there are several other tight ends I feel come with safer projections/floors that go later than Bowers, such as Hunter Henry/Tyler Conklin. With best ball formats favoring the later portion of the season, I prefer getting by Bowers exposure there versus redraft leagues where I think he might be too to tough trust out of the gates.
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
This is less about Dallas Goedert as a bust player but more about a “lack” of potential upside in this Eagles offense. In points per game, Goedert was the TE13 in 2023 despite running a route on 76% of the dropbacks (5th-most among tight ends). Even after missing three games, Goedert was STILL the TE15 overall. Unless we see drastic changes in this offense, Goedert will likely remain in that awkward low-end TE1 conversation as he has been throughout his career. His half-PPR finishes since 2023: 15, 11, 10, 21 (11 games), 10, 21. Just once has he scored at least five TDs.
Not elite enough to draft aggressively but not cheap enough to be labeled a late-round fantasy tight end option. A big issue is that DG has been a complete afterthought in the red zone. Averaged fewer than 9 red-zone targets per game in the last 3 seasons.
The upside case is tied to the Eagles’ being fast-paced and A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith missing time. And Goedert is a good tight end, and has shown ceiling games even with healthy Eagles around him.
But given Goedert’s overall status on the hierarchy of the Eagles’ TD equity…he leaves a lot to be desired as the TE12. Not an “awful” selection, but somewhat of a pick that seems more like a true boom-or-bus proposition which is better in best ball. Because there’s plenty of reason to believe Goedert busts quite often. Last season, his 46% bust rate was identical to Taysom Hill.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)
The “fade” on T.J. Hockenson is 100% tied to his late ACL/MCL injury from Week 16, which he did not have surgery on until the end of January 2024. At the earliest, a 9-month recovery would put Hockenson on the field in late October. He’s already on the PUP list (will miss the first four weeks). The Vikings have a Week 6 bye week.
With modern medicine it’s very possible Hockenson can return earlier, but to what production level? Last season, alongside a healthy Justin Jefferson, Hockenson was at his worst, averaging 9.5 points per game. That would have ranked at TE8. Considering the Vikings’ offense might not be as effective without Kirk Cousins, it’s not hard to envision Hockenson failing to provide difference-making tight-end production at any point during the year. Now, there’s a case to be made as his feet get under him that he can be a difference-maker down the line. And in the best ball format, that matters more with the prize money toward the top from Weeks 15-17.
And I should note that the Athletic’s Alec Lewis is extremely bullish on Hockenson’s return to top performance, citing that the Vikings tight end could flirt with 1,000 yards even if he misses games. This is extremely bullish – only one TE had 1,000 yards last season – but it’s noteworthy how strong he feels for Hockenson versus the ADP market. Should be noted that Lewis also reported that Alexander Mattison as a strong fantasy target last season (miss). But he did highlight Ty Chandler as a strong sleeper (hit).
Regardless of the beat reporter’s track record of fantasy success (who’s counting), I find anybody close to the team this bullish on Hockenson to this extent eye-opening.
And although Mike Clay’s ESPN projections have Hockenson playing just 11 games, he comes in as the TE15 overall. TE6 in points per game.
Remember what I said at the top. Tight ends often get hurt and miss games. The only difference with Hockenson is that you know he’s going to miss games. Therefore you can better build your team around him.
I predicted that if you were drafting a surplus of best ball teams in the summer, you should keep fading Hockenson because his ADP will continue to drop once he goes on the PUP list.
Once you enter total flier territory at tight end, Hockenson looks pretty appealing. And for those drafting redraft teams with IR spots, Hockenson has a spot to be selected. In traditional redraft leagues, the roster spot is probably worth too much to hold Hockenson for the length of 6-plus weeks when the waiver wire is so critical.
Ben Sinnott (TE – WAS)
After Bowers was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, we only had one tight end drafted in Round 2. Ben Sinnott by the Washington Commanders. And just one more drafted on Day 2, with Illinois’ Tip Reiman by the Arizona Cardinals in Round 3 (82nd overall).
From my research, I’ve found that approximately twenty-eight percent of Round 2 tight ends finish as top-24 options, so expect 1-2 to be fantasy-relevant in Year 1. Unless Zach Ertz stays healthy, it’s pretty easy to see Sinnott finishing in the top-24 conversation as the clear-cut TE2 in the class.
Because it’s hard to beat the landing spot that Sinnott got with the Commanders, a team desperately looking for additional playmakers. Pre-draft, the Commanders’ top three playmakers were Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and old man Ertz, who will be 34 in November (cringe).
Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown and Jamison Crowder are penciled in to see a ton of WR snaps, which likely isn’t ideal. They added Noah Brown from the Texans after they traded Dotson to the Eagles.
And Ertz is not a long-term option at tight end. Given the overwhelming evidence of more than 1 of the top Washington decision-makers drafting a tight end with Day 2 capital, I expected the Commanders to draft a tight end in this year’s draft. And Sinnott fits what Adam Peters (formerly of the 49ers) would want at tight end. Great after the catch, super productive at the college level, above average athleticism, and experience as a fullback.
He’s Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, and Kyle Juszczyk, all wrapped up into a fun package. The best part is that he has a path to targets in the Commanders’ offense.
Now, it remains to be seen how effective Jayden Daniels will be in Year 1. But Sinnott has firmly stamped his TE2 ticket in this class after hovering in that area pre-draft.
I liked him a lot as a tight-end prospect, so I don’t need to be convinced any further with this great situation he finds himself in.
Just praying that Kingsbury doesn’t play Ertz over Sinnott as he did McBride during his rookie year. I also don’t love Peters’ praise of Sinnott’s blocking and the fact that he could be deployed as a fullback in certain packages. Not ideal for fantasy purposes.
He’s the TE23 in my rankings while falling to TE25 in early best ball ADP (formerly at TE23). Sinnott has an upside to his profile and situation, but it might be a slower burn than most fantasy managers would like from the get-go.
Ertz has sat out the entire preseason as the projected starter. I think he’s going to get some solid run as long as he stays healthy.
Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target
- Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
- Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
- DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
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