The running back position is changing in the NFL. Teams have gone from having a featured guy getting 350 touches a year to using multiple running backs. While the change is good for the league, it has mixed results for the fantasy football world.
Running backs with a featured workload aren’t guaranteed a top-five finish. Meanwhile, running backs in a near 50-50 split can still finish the season as a top-12 producer. In short, a running back could be great for fantasy players or a massive bust, regardless of his workload.
Let’s look at five running backs I will avoid drafting in 2024.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Running Backs to Avoid in Fantasy Football
Josh Jacobs (GB): ADP 39.7 | RB12
Many believe Jacobs will be the Packers’ featured running back in 2024 after signing a massive four-year deal in free agency. However, the coaching staff has praised MarShawn Lloyd and wants to make him a critical part of the offense. More importantly, Jacob’s yards per rushing attempt declined by 29%, his explosive run rate slipped by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt dropped by 29% from 2022 to 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Don’t be surprised if Lloyd pushes Jacobs into a near 50-50 backfield split.
Rachaad White (TB): ADP 44.3 | RB13
While White was the RB7, averaging 13.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year, it was because of volume, not his talents. He was second in rushing attempts (272) but 14th in yards (990). The former Arizona State star ranked 89th in yards after contact per attempt, 84th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 76th in explosive run rate (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, over 44% of White’s fantasy points came in the passing game. However, that likely won’t happen again with the addition of Bucky Irving.
Aaron Jones (MIN): ADP 67.7 | RB19
The veteran was the RB2 in the playoffs on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. However, Jones struggled to stay healthy during the regular season. More importantly, he ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). I would rather draft Ty Chandler six rounds later than Jones at his ADP.
Raheem Mostert (MIA): ADP 90.7 | RB28
Mostert was outstanding in 2023, ending the year as the RB2, averaging 16.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran scored over 52% of his career touchdown total last season, leading the NFL with 21 offensive scores. More importantly, 51.9% of his fantasy points were from touchdowns. By comparison, Christian McCaffrey was the RB1 and had 21 offensive scores. Yet, only 35.2% of his fantasy points were from touchdowns last year. Mostert will likely see his workload diminish with the addition of Jaylen Wright and De’Von Achane’s expanding role.
Javonte Williams (DEN): ADP 96.7 | RB30
Hopefully, Williams gets traded during training camp because I have no interest in drafting him if he remains in Denver. Williams was the RB30 in 2023, averaging 9.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite ranking 17th in rushing attempts (217). More importantly, he posted the lowest missed forced tackle per attempt rate (14%) and yards after contact per attempt (2.51) of his career last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Audric Estime will push Williams for early down touches while Jaleel McLaughlin should be the passing downs running back.
More Players to Avoid
- DBro’s Players to Avoid (Premium)
- Erickson’s Players to Avoid: QB | RB | TE
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
